Nevada at North Dakota State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo

Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State Bison

North Dakota State logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Fargodome - Fargo, ND  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (6 - 19)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
NEV 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: North Dakota State -18  (SP+ NEV -13.5)
Projected Score: NEV: 2 - NDSU: 20 (22)
NDSU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 1259 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Nevada's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Nevada vs Western Kentucky+12.5————
Sat 9/12Nevada vs Montana State-7.5————
Sat 9/19Nevada at Middle Tennessee+1.5————
Sat 9/26Nevada vs Air Force+6————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Nevada at UTEP+4————
Sat 10/17Nevada at North Dakota State+18————
Sat 10/24Nevada vs San José State-1.5————
Sat 10/31Nevada at UCLA+22————
Sat 11/7Nevada vs New Mexico+14————
Sat 11/14Nevada at Northern Illinois+3————
Sat 11/21Nevada vs Hawai'i+12.5————
Sat 11/28Nevada at UNLV+20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State-8————
Sat 9/5North Dakota State vs Fordham-23————
Sat 9/12North Dakota State at Air Force-4.5————
Sat 9/19North Dakota State at Sacramento State-2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Dakota State vs Wyoming-10.5————
Sat 10/10North Dakota State at UNLV+5.5————
Sat 10/17North Dakota State vs Nevada-18————
Sat 10/24North Dakota State at New Mexico+3.5————
Sat 10/31North Dakota State vs UTEP-16.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14North Dakota State at Hawai'i+2————
Sat 11/21North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois-17.5————
Sat 11/28North Dakota State at San José State-12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (86)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#94 (.19)44% (93)27.544% (85)43% (96)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
NDSU0%00%000%000%00%0%0000
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1217.615.536.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02
NDSU Defense0000%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1227.529.843.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
NDSU Offense0000%00000000%0%0%0%0%

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
North Dakota State00:000NAN%0%0000000100
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (92)2.83 (86)72% (68)11% (114)1.04 (36)
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - 00%0%0
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1250% (66)44% (85) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (93)1.05 (109)
NDSU Offense00%0%000000%0%0

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (124)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (86)1.6 (136)
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (71)43% (96) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (38)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (38).26 (56)6% (86)1.8 (16)
NDSU Offense00%0%000000000%0%0%0

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -18.91  #136
Nevada's Offense Rating: 0.88  #132
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.79  #131
2026 Talent Rating: 492.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #64
Nevada's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Nevada's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -18.91   North Dakota State: 1.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.4   North Dakota State:




North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: 1.77  #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15  #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Dakota State 20
Nevada 2

Projected Total Points: 22
North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense at Home: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense at Home: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Dakota State000 Overs
Nevada000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#136) NEV at (#80) NDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVNDSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #136 #80
SP+SP+ #116NR
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #120 #135
Blue ChipsBC% #64 #103
Nevada Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Not sure what we're doing here or why
(3/3) Off a tire fire LY, OC fired, QB benched. Ugly
(3/3) QB Jones played LY as Fr but not well. Is he #1?
(3/3) RB are small and below avg. Anyone emerge?
(3/3) WR added 2 prod FCS (Cheers + Doss) could help
(3/3) OL surprisingly good on paper, 3 starters, depth
(3/3) DE Dylan Labarbera a monster, why still here?
(3/3) DL unit could be Avg, DT's have size, LB are ?
(3/3) DBs have 2 good Safeties, 3 exp'd CBs.
Nevada Injury Report
North Dakota State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffNDSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #124NR
ExplosiveExp #102NR
PPAPPA #129NR
PowerPwr #132 #62
SP+SP+ #133NR
Pts POPPO #133NR
HavocHav #107NR
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffNDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #123NR
Run ExplRExp #36NR
PPAExp #92NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #86NR
Stuff RateStuff #79NR
TackleTak - NR
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffNDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #118NR
Pass ExplPExl #124NR
PPAExp #135NR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #114NR
DB HavocDB #86NR
North Dakota State on Offense
CategoryCatNDSU OffNEV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #93
ExplosiveExpNR #39
PPAPPANR #94
PowerPwr #98 #131
SP+SP+NR #81
Pts POPPONR #112
HavocHavNR #100
North Dakota State Run Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #85
Run ExplRExpNR #109
PPAExpNR #126
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #104
Stuff RateStuffNR #110
TackleTak - NR
North Dakota State Pass Game
CategoryCatNDSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #96
Pass ExplPExlNR #2
PPAExpNR #38
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #93
DB HavocDBNR #86
Program Comparison
NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Fargodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NEV's OC Bret Bartalone (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
AJ Bianco274560%188114.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Dominic Kelley236012.610
Carter Jackson84105.110
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaceon Doss (Tr)29657522.784
Donnie Cheers (Tr)44585513.367
Marshaun Brown16164110.322
Gary Givens III12145112.131

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Larry Turner-Gooden280001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Poasa Utu (Tr)82210
Myles Williams31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Snelling140004
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Bishop Turner211002

NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nathan Hayes254457%381418.7
Trey Drake11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Scott9550265.339
Cortez LeGrant2513105.222
Nathan Hayes788112.634
Myles Mitchell187814.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reis Kessel15335122.350
Jackson Williams17293117.251
Mekhi Collins6159226.568
Isiah St. Romain450112.515

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD