North Dakota State at Hawai'i - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Dakota State logo

North Dakota State Bison at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Hawai
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI  (Mountain West)

 
Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
NDSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -2  (SP+ HAW -2)
Projected Score: NDSU: 12 - HAW: 14 (25)
HAW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
NDSU Travel: 3800 miles, 5 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)
 
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State-8————
Sat 9/5North Dakota State vs Fordham-23————
Sat 9/12North Dakota State at Air Force-4.5————
Sat 9/19North Dakota State at Sacramento State-2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Dakota State vs Wyoming-10.5————
Sat 10/10North Dakota State at UNLV+5.5————
Sat 10/17North Dakota State vs Nevada-18————
Sat 10/24North Dakota State at New Mexico+3.5————
Sat 10/31North Dakota State vs UTEP-16.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14North Dakota State at Hawai'i+2————
Sat 11/21North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois-17.5————
Sat 11/28North Dakota State at San José State-12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Hawai'i at Stanford-1————
Sat 9/5Hawai'i vs UNLV+1————
Sat 9/12Hawai'i vs New Mexico State-17————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Hawai'i at Wyoming-5————
Sat 10/3Hawai'i vs San José State-16.5————
Sat 10/10Hawai'i at Arizona State+10————
Sat 10/17Hawai'i vs New Mexico-1————
Sat 10/24Hawai'i at Northern Illinois-12————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Hawai'i at UTEP-11————
Sat 11/14Hawai'i vs North Dakota State-2————
Sat 11/21Hawai'i at Nevada-12.5————
Sat 11/28Hawai'i vs Sacramento State-7————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%00%000%000%00%0%0000
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (96)10544% (49)2913.77 (61)#74 (.17)42% (70)24.143% (74)41% (60)3.35 (39)65.81.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Offense0000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
HAW Defense1324.11741.7%3.351.2 - - - - - 46%52%43%41%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Defense0000%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
HAW Offense13293141.2%3.771.3203951052913.737%62%38%44%12%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Dakota State00:000NAN%0%0000000100
Hawai'i1331:5720.545%60%7.765.81.31.24.82.2329.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Offense00%0%000000%0%0
HAW Defense1346% (22)43% (74) - - - - .1 (67)3.21 (120)81% (123)9% (77)0.97 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - 00%0%0
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)28.1104.73.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (96)59% (131)7% (11)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Offense00%0%000000000%0%0%0
HAW Defense1352% (112)41% (60) - - - - - - 8 (55).26 (75)1.6 (79)34% (31)31% (87).43 (125)7% (43)2.2 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)26.941.5290.6710.830 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (29).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (18)

North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: -1.46  #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15  #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State: -1.46   Hawai'i: 1.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State:    Hawai'i: 1.7




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: 1.155  #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56  #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95  #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense on Road: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 14
North Dakota State 12

Projected Total Points: 25
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i000 Overs
North Dakota State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#80) NDSU at (#87) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDSUHAW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #80 #87
SP+SP+NR #68
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #135 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
North Dakota State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report
North Dakota State on Offense
CategoryCat
NDSU OffHAW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #70
ExplosiveExpNR #87
PPAPPANR #74
PowerPwr #98 #98
SP+SP+NR #69
Pts POPPONR #39
HavocHavNR #61
North Dakota State Run Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #74
Run ExplRExpNR #77
PPAExpNR #67
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #120
Stuff RateStuffNR #116
TackleTak - NR
North Dakota State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #60
Pass ExplPExlNR #79
PPAExpNR #75
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #77
DB HavocDBNR #43
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffNDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #88NR
ExplosiveExp #27NR
PPAPPA #62NR
PowerPwr #89 #62
SP+SP+ #66NR
Pts POPPO #61NR
HavocHav #15NR
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffNDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #118NR
Run ExplRExp #91NR
PPAExp #118NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #96NR
Stuff RateStuff #99NR
TackleTak - NR
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffNDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #49NR
Pass ExplPExl #61NR
PPAExp #47NR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #11NR
DB HavocDB #39NR
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nathan Hayes254457%381418.7
Trey Drake11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Scott9550265.339
Cortez LeGrant2513105.222
Nathan Hayes788112.634
Myles Mitchell187814.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reis Kessel15335122.350
Jackson Williams17293117.251
Mekhi Collins6159226.568
Isiah St. Romain450112.515

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Tama Uiliata1250%340017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Devon Rice (Tr)269433.613
Tama Uiliata2804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Cam Barfield2725739.559
Tama Uiliata2823108.330
Devon Tauaefa1410707.634

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Wynden Ho'Ohuli242011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Luther McCoy183240
Noah Wily11100
Jamih Otis543040
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Matagi Thompson160003
Caleb Brown (Tr)20001