Sacramento State at Hawai'i - 2026 Matchup Preview

Sacramento State Hornets at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, November 28th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI

Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SAC coming off BYE
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -7 (SP+ HAW -2)
Projected Score: SAC: 19 - HAW: 26 (44)
HAW Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
SAC Travel: 2462 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
SAC Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/12	Sacramento State at Fresno State	+7.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Sacramento State vs North Dakota State	+2.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28	Sacramento State at Hawai'i	+7	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Hawai'i at Stanford	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-17	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26	Hawai'i at Wyoming	-5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Hawai'i vs San José State	-16.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Hawai'i at Arizona State	+10	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Hawai'i at Northern Illinois	-12	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7	Hawai'i at UTEP	-11	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	Hawai'i vs North Dakota State	-2	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	Hawai'i at Nevada	-12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Hawai'i vs Sacramento State	-7	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%	17	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	20	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HAW	#62 (.18)	41% (88)	29	38% (118)	2.8 (96)	105	44% (49)	291	3.77 (61)	#74 (.17)	42% (70)	24.1	43% (74)	41% (60)	3.35 (39)	65.8	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HAW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Offense	1	17	17	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
HAW Defense	13	24.1	17	41.7%	3.35	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Defense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
HAW Offense	13	29	31	41.2%	3.77	1.3	20	395	105	291	3.7	37%	62%	38%	44%	12%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Hawai'i	13	31:57	20.5	45%	60%	7.7	65.8	1.3	1.2	4.8	2.2	3	29.9

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
HAW Defense	13	46% (22)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.1 (67)	3.21 (120)	81% (123)	9% (77)	0.97 (77)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
HAW Offense	13	37% (133)	38% (118)	28.1	104.7	3.7	8 (122)	.02 (118)	2.8 (96)	59% (131)	7% (11)	0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
HAW Defense	13	52% (112)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.26 (75)	1.6 (79)	34% (31)	31% (87)	.43 (125)	7% (43)	2.2 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
HAW Offense	13	62% (3)	44% (49)	26.9	41.5	290.6	7	10.8	30 (14)	12 (127)	.31 (47)	1.6 (61)	34% (113)	33% (29)	.37 (41)	5% (39)	2.2 (18)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -11.20 #115
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: -1.11 #138
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 15.09 #64
2026 Talent Rating: 546.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: -
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 546.62
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: -11.20 Hawai'i: 1.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Hawai'i: 1.7

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: 1.155 #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56 #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95 #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7 #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 26
Sacramento State 19

Projected Total Points: 44

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	0	0	0 Overs
Sacramento State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#115) SAC at (#87) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SAC	HAW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#115	#87
SP+SP+	NR	#68
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#111	#117
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#103

Sacramento State Notes(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report

Hawai'i Notes(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	HAW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	#70
ExplosiveExp	NR	#87
PPAPPA	NR	#74
PowerPwr	#138	#98
SP+SP+	NR	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	#39
HavocHav	NR	#61

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#74
Run ExplRExp	NR	#77
PPAExp	NR	#67
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#120
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#116
TackleTak	-	NR

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#60
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#79
PPAExp	NR	#75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	#77
DB HavocDB	NR	#43

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SAC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#88	NR
ExplosiveExp	#27	NR
PPAPPA	#62	NR
PowerPwr	#89	#64
SP+SP+	#66	NR
Pts POPPO	#61	NR
HavocHav	#15	NR

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	NR
Run ExplRExp	#91	NR
PPAExp	#118	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#99	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#61	NR
PPAExp	#47	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#11	NR
DB HavocDB	#39	NR

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7
Savion Red	1	1	100%	28	0	0	28.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Godley (Tr)	94	512	4	5.4	52
Sam Adams II	36	181	3	5.0	34
Savion Red	12	58	0	4.8	13
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)	5	19	0	3.8	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Williams	11	170	1	15.5	26
Sam Adams II	9	134	2	14.9	33
Matthew Coleman (Tr)	20	131	1	6.6	13
Jace Wilson	3	56	0	18.7	45

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0

HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Micah Alejado	285	430	66%	3106	24	9	7.2
Tama Uiliata	1	2	50%	34	0	0	17.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Barfield	80	371	4	4.6	41
Micah Alejado	81	105	1	1.3	30
Devon Rice (Tr)	26	94	3	3.6	13
Tama Uiliata	2	8	0	4.0	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Pofele Ashlock	76	827	8	10.9	47
Cam Barfield	27	257	3	9.5	59
Tama Uiliata	28	231	0	8.3	30
Devon Tauaefa	14	107	0	7.6	34

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4	0
Elijah Palmer	51	7	0	0	10
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3	0
Wynden Ho'Ohuli	24	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3
Luther McCoy	18	3	2	4
Noah Wily	1	1	1	0
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Elijah Palmer	51	7	10
Matagi Thompson	16	0	3
Caleb Brown (Tr)	2	0	1