San José State at Hawai'i - 2026 Matchup Preview
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San José State Spartans at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Hawai
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI  (Mountain West)

 
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (10 - 15)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 8.7 (#83)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
SJSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -16.5  (SP+ HAW -16)
Projected Score: SJSU: 18 - HAW: 34 (52)
HAW Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
SJSU Travel: 2413 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)
 
San José State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29San José State at USC+38.5————
Fri 9/4San José State at Eastern Michigan+7.5————
Sat 9/12San José State vs Cal Poly-8.5————
Sat 9/19San José State vs Fresno State+12.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3San José State at Hawai'i+16.5————
Sat 10/10San José State vs Wyoming+4————
Sat 10/17San José State at UTEP+3————
Sat 10/24San José State at Nevada+1.5————
Sat 10/31San José State vs New Mexico+13————
Sat 11/7San José State vs Northern Illinois-3————
Sat 11/14San José State at Air Force+10————
Sat 11/21San José State vs UNLV+14.5————
Sat 11/28San José State vs North Dakota State+12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Hawai'i at Stanford-1————
Sat 9/5Hawai'i vs UNLV+1————
Sat 9/12Hawai'i vs New Mexico State-17————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Hawai'i at Wyoming-5————
Sat 10/3Hawai'i vs San José State-16.5————
Sat 10/10Hawai'i at Arizona State+10————
Sat 10/17Hawai'i vs New Mexico-1————
Sat 10/24Hawai'i at Northern Illinois-12————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Hawai'i at UTEP-11————
Sat 11/14Hawai'i vs North Dakota State-2————
Sat 11/21Hawai'i at Nevada-12.5————
Sat 11/28Hawai'i vs Sacramento State-7————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#67 (.18)44% (54)21.447% (28)3.06 (46)12041% (72)2832.77 (130)#98 (.2)42% (77)32.542% (67)43% (81)4.04 (107)54.82.31.2
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (96)10544% (49)2913.77 (61)#74 (.17)42% (70)24.143% (74)41% (60)3.35 (39)65.81.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense1221.41743.5%2.772.3204031202834.638%60%47%41%15%.18
HAW Defense1324.11741.7%3.351.2 - - - - - 46%52%43%41%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense1232.535.542.1%4.041.2 - - - - - 54%44%42%43%12%.2
HAW Offense13293141.2%3.771.3203951052913.737%62%38%44%12%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State1227:4720.143%26%5.854.82.31.24.31.5127.2
Hawai'i1331:5720.545%60%7.765.81.31.24.82.2329.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense1238% (132)47% (28)26.1120.14.614 (107).12 (65)3.06 (46)71% (78)6% (2)0.94 (78)
HAW Defense1346% (22)43% (74) - - - - .1 (67)3.21 (120)81% (123)9% (77)0.97 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense1254% (117)42% (67) - - - - .11 (70)3.02 (97)80% (121)8% (123)0.9 (37)
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)28.1104.73.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (96)59% (131)7% (11)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense1260% (5)41% (72)22.840.6283.2712.517 (30)17 (34).22 (81)1.5 (106)32% (86)32% (48).29 (72)9% (135)1.8 (125)
HAW Defense1352% (112)41% (60) - - - - - - 8 (55).26 (75)1.6 (79)34% (31)31% (87).43 (125)7% (43)2.2 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense1244% (21)43% (81) - - - - - - 7 (38).34 (109)1.8 (128)31% (85)28% (55).32 (84)5% (118)2.1 (114)
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)26.941.5290.6710.830 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (29).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (18)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -16.07  #133
San José State's Offense Rating: 4.30  #120
San José State's Defense Rating: 25.37  #132
2026 Talent Rating: 478.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #73
San José State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.3 - 8.7
San José State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -16.07   Hawai'i: 1.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -14.3   Hawai'i: 1.7




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: 1.155  #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56  #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95  #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

San José State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 34
San José State 18

Projected Total Points: 52
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01San José State45Hawai'i38San José State -2.5San José State55.5Over
202310/28Hawai'i0San José State35San José State -10.5San José State57.0Under
202211/26San José State27Hawai'i14San José State -15.5Hawai'i58.5Under
202109/19Hawai'i13San José State17San José State -8Hawai'i62.5Under
202012/05San José State35Hawai'i24Hawai'i -2.5San José State59.0Push
201911/09Hawai'i42San José State40Hawai'i -7.5San José State78.5Over
201809/29San José State41Hawai'i44Hawai'i -9San José State63.5Over
201710/14Hawai'i37San José State26Hawai'i -17San José State59.5Over
201610/08San José State17Hawai'i34San José State -3.5Hawai'i62.5Under
201511/21Hawai'i23San José State42San José State -9San José State52.5Over
201411/15San José State0Hawai'i13San José State -10Hawai'i0
201310/06Hawai'i27San José State37San José State -4.5San José State0
201110/14San José State28Hawai'i27
201011/20Hawai'i41San José State7
200911/21San José State10Hawai'i17
200809/28Hawai'i17San José State20
200710/12San José State35Hawai'i42
200611/18Hawai'i54San José State17
200510/22San José State38Hawai'i45
200410/24Hawai'i46San José State28
200311/01San José State10Hawai'i13
200211/03Hawai'i40San José State31
200111/04Hawai'i34San José State10
200010/27Hawai'i48San José State57
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i1445 Overs
San José State1084 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 81 - 53 - 3
Road Teams13 - 118 - 43 - 35 - 1

(#133) SJSU at (#87) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUHAW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #133 #87
SP+SP+ #118 #68
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #122 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #73 #103
San José State Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Bad, this roster is really awful on paper
(3/3) Def awful LY, DC fired. Off went fast to protect OL
(3/3) QB Weaver (Haw) most exp'd, Amisone is mobile
(3/3) RB + WR pretty bleak. Need depth to rise
(3/3) OL likely bad again, only 2 starters, 3 portals
(3/3) DL is small, has 5 w exp, could they be avg?
(3/3) DBs look pretty awful, lack bodies, exp, talent
(3/3) Finished 1-6 last year, going south quickly
San José State Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffHAW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #54 #70
ExplosiveExp #58 #87
PPAPPA #67 #74
PowerPwr #120 #98
SP+SP+ #108 #69
Pts POPPO #130 #39
HavocHav #67 #61
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #28 #74
Run ExplRExp #78 #77
PPAExp #65 #67
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #46 #120
Stuff RateStuff #85 #116
TackleTak - NR
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #60
Pass ExplPExl #106 #79
PPAExp #81 #75
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #2 #77
DB HavocDB #135 #43
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffSJSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #88 #77
ExplosiveExp #27 #98
PPAPPA #62 #98
PowerPwr #89 #132
SP+SP+ #66 #115
Pts POPPO #61 #107
HavocHav #15 #129
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffSJSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #67
Run ExplRExp #91 #37
PPAExp #118 #70
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #96 #97
Stuff RateStuff #99 #128
TackleTak - NR
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #81
Pass ExplPExl #61 #128
PPAExp #47 #109
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #11 #123
DB HavocDB #39 #118
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
San José State beat Hawai'i last year (45-38)
San José State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (35-0)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Weaver (Tr)6310560%628636.0
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Luke Weaver (Tr)277302.713
Viliami Teu177014.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Anderson24361015.052
Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa98409.329
Cooper Hoch54308.613
Jabari Bates112012.012

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Bojay Filimoeatu (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Powell373020
Justin Stearns253110
Solomone Langi192110
Noa Siaosi111110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aizik Mahuka (Tr)72100
Etu Finau52111
Solomone Langi192110
Noa Siaosi111110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Buxton (Tr)110002
Runye Norton00001
Etu Finau52111

HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Tama Uiliata1250%340017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Devon Rice (Tr)269433.613
Tama Uiliata2804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Cam Barfield2725739.559
Tama Uiliata2823108.330
Devon Tauaefa1410707.634

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Wynden Ho'Ohuli242011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Luther McCoy183240
Noah Wily11100
Jamih Otis543040
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Matagi Thompson160003
Caleb Brown (Tr)20001