San José State at Air Force - 2026 Matchup Preview
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San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons

Air Force logo
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (10 - 15)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 8.7 (#83)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
AFA is playing their 8th straight game
SJSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -10  (SP+ AFA -11)

Projected Score: SJSU: 23 - AFA: 33 (55)
AFA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
SJSU Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
San José State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29San José State at USC+38.5
Fri 9/4San José State at Eastern Michigan+7.5
Sat 9/12San José State vs Cal Poly-8.5
Sat 9/19San José State vs Fresno State+12.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3San José State at Hawai'i+16.5
Sat 10/10San José State vs Wyoming+4
Sat 10/17San José State at UTEP+3
Sat 10/24San José State at Nevada+1.5
Sat 10/31San José State vs New Mexico+13
Sat 11/7San José State vs Northern Illinois-3
Sat 11/14San José State at Air Force+10
Sat 11/21San José State vs UNLV+14.5
Sat 11/28San José State vs North Dakota State+12

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#67 (.18)44% (54)21.447% (28)3.06 (46)12041% (72)2832.77 (130)#98 (.2)42% (77)32.542% (67)43% (81)4.04 (107)54.82.31.2
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense1221.41743.5%2.772.3204031202834.638%60%47%41%15%.18
AFA Defense1230.327.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense1232.535.542.1%4.041.2 - - - - - 54%44%42%43%12%.2
AFA Offense1229.827.547.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State1227:4720.143%26%5.854.82.31.24.31.5127.2
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense1238% (132)47% (28)26.1120.14.614 (107).12 (65)3.06 (46)71% (78)6% (2)0.94 (78)
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense1254% (117)42% (67) - - - - .11 (70)3.02 (97)80% (121)8% (123)0.9 (37)
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense1260% (5)41% (72)22.840.6283.2712.517 (30)17 (34).22 (81)1.5 (106)32% (86)32% (48).29 (72)9% (135)1.8 (125)
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense1244% (21)43% (81) - - - - - - 7 (38).34 (109)1.8 (128)31% (85)28% (55).32 (84)5% (118)2.1 (114)
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -16.07  #133
San José State's Offense Rating: 4.30  #120
San José State's Defense Rating: 25.37  #132
2026 Talent Rating: 478.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #73
San José State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.3 - 8.7
San José State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -16.07   Air Force: -5.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -14.3   Air Force: -3.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -5.005  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

San José State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 33
San José State 23


Projected Total Points: 55
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08San José State16Air Force26San José State -6Air Force67.5Under
202409/07Air Force7San José State17Air Force -1.5San José State43.5Under
202309/22San José State20Air Force45Air Force -6Air Force45.5Over
202010/24San José State17Air Force6Air Force -7.5San José State63.5Under
201909/27Air Force41San José State24Air Force -19.5San José State58.5Over
201611/19San José State38Air Force41Air Force -11San José State54.5Over
201509/12Air Force37San José State16Air Force -7Air Force58.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force533 Overs
San José State244 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 43 - 41 - 32 - 1
Road Teams4 - 34 - 31 - 23 - 1

(#133) SJSU at (#117) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #133 #117
SP+SP+ #118 #80
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #122 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #73 #103
San José State Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Bad, this roster is really awful on paper
(3/3) Def awful LY, DC fired. Off went fast to protect OL
(3/3) QB Weaver (Haw) most exp'd, Amisone is mobile
(3/3) RB + WR pretty bleak. Need depth to rise
(3/3) OL likely bad again, only 2 starters, 3 portals
(3/3) DL is small, has 5 w exp, could they be avg?
(3/3) DBs look pretty awful, lack bodies, exp, talent
(3/3) Finished 1-6 last year, going south quickly
San José State Injury Report
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #54 #134
ExplosiveExp #58 #123
PPAPPA #67 #136
PowerPwr #120 #137
SP+SP+ #108 #101
Pts POPPO #130 #122
HavocHav #67 #133
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #28 #110
Run ExplRExp #78 #133
PPAExp #65 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #46 #127
Stuff RateStuff #85 #133
TackleTak - NR
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #136
Pass ExplPExl #106 #31
PPAExp #81 #135
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #2 #135
DB HavocDB #135 #126
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffSJSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #77
ExplosiveExp #88 #98
PPAPPA #19 #98
PowerPwr #88 #132
SP+SP+ #59 #115
Pts POPPO #12 #107
HavocHav #2 #129
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSJSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #67
Run ExplRExp #69 #37
PPAExp #18 #70
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #97
Stuff RateStuff #2 #128
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #81
Pass ExplPExl #2 #128
PPAExp #2 #109
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #123
DB HavocDB #3 #118
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San José State last year (26-16)
San José State beat Air Force in 2024 (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Weaver (Tr)6310560%628636.0
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Luke Weaver (Tr)277302.713
Viliami Teu177014.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Anderson24361015.052
Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa98409.329
Cooper Hoch54308.613
Jabari Bates112012.012

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Bojay Filimoeatu (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Powell373020
Justin Stearns253110
Solomone Langi192110
Noa Siaosi111110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aizik Mahuka (Tr)72100
Etu Finau52111
Solomone Langi192110
Noa Siaosi111110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Buxton (Tr)110002
Runye Norton00001
Etu Finau52111

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052