UTEP at Air Force - 2026 Matchup Preview
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UTEP Miners at Air Force Falcons

Air Force logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Miners (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (5 - 19)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#85)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
AFA is playing their 9th straight game
UTEP is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -9.5  (SP+ AFA -14)
Projected Score: UTEP: 24 - AFA: 33 (57)
AFA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UTEP Travel: 508 miles
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
UTEP's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5UTEP at Oklahoma+39.5————
Sat 9/12UTEP vs Texas Southern-9————
Sat 9/19UTEP at Michigan+36.5————
Sat 9/26UTEP vs Oregon State+1.5————
Sat 10/3UTEP at New Mexico+17.5————
Sat 10/10UTEP vs Nevada-4————
Sat 10/17UTEP vs San José State-3————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31UTEP at North Dakota State+16.5————
Sat 11/7UTEP vs Hawai'i+11————
Sat 11/14UTEP vs Wyoming+3.5————
Sat 11/21UTEP at Air Force+9.5————
Sat 11/28UTEP at Northern Illinois+1.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16————
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6————
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5————
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6————
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7————
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5————
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3————
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8————
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10————
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5————
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTEP#130 (.02)33% (135)23.336% (129)2.14 (133)11631% (135)2163.42 (97)#45 (.11)39% (42)30.437% (13)42% (75)3.85 (85)57.121
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTEP0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTEP Offense1223.320.233%3.422173321162163.744%54%36%31%19%.02
AFA Defense1230.327.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTEP Defense1230.437.439.3%3.851 - - - - - 54%45%37%42%16%.11
AFA Offense1229.827.547.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTEP1225:3816.830%54%5.957.1216.82.3128.5
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense1244% (113)36% (129)31.3115.63.714 (99).05 (105)2.14 (133)60% (127)11% (107)1.17 (5)
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense1254% (112)37% (13) - - - - .02 (23)2.63 (22)64% (21)11% (32)0.98 (80)
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense1254% (27)31% (135)18.734.2216.36.311.621 (61)20 (136).03 (130)1.7 (17)34% (115)24% (125).21 (104)8% (128)2.1 (31)
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense1245% (25)42% (75) - - - - - - 5 (123).24 (65)1.4 (21)32% (50)27% (31).12 (10)5% (110)1.5 (1)
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -11.82  #118
UTEP's Offense Rating: 0.81  #133
UTEP's Defense Rating: 17.63  #80
2026 Talent Rating: 740.00  #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #73
UTEP's 2026 Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9
UTEP's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.5  #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #111
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3  #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -11.82   Air Force: -5.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -17.5   Air Force: -3.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -5.005  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 33
UTEP 24

Projected Total Points: 57
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force000 Overs
UTEP000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#118) UTEP at (#117) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTEPAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #118 #117
SP+SP+ #129 #80
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #69 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #73 #103
UTEP Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Liked Walden hire, but this isn't working
(3/3) Walden hired ST coach Joe Pappalardo as OC?
(3/3) QB EJ Colson was good at FCS Incarnate Word
(3/3) Walden has 75 croots in his era but no results
(3/3) QB Raymond Moore was OK as FCS Fr, mobile
(3/3) RB 2 portals, lots of projects, Sperling (Buf) exp'd
(3/3) WR Cheeks (FCS) intriguing, lots of ? here
(3/3) OL 4 portals, 2 were starters & projects/freshman
(3/3) F7 are mostly FCS portals and projects, DL Ok
(3/3) DBs most exp'd, 2 decent CBs, 2 exp'd Safeties
UTEP Injury Report
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
UTEP on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
UTEP OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #135 #134
ExplosiveExp #2 #123
PPAPPA #130 #136
PowerPwr #133 #137
SP+SP+ #111 #101
Pts POPPO #97 #122
HavocHav #123 #133
UTEP Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
UTEP OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #110
Run ExplRExp #5 #133
PPAExp #105 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #133 #127
Stuff RateStuff #124 #133
TackleTak - NR
UTEP Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
UTEP OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #135 #136
Pass ExplPExl #17 #31
PPAExp #130 #135
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #107 #135
DB HavocDB #128 #126
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffUTEP Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #42
ExplosiveExp #88 #46
PPAPPA #19 #45
PowerPwr #88 #80
SP+SP+ #59 #127
Pts POPPO #12 #85
HavocHav #2 #67
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUTEP Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #13
Run ExplRExp #69 #80
PPAExp #18 #23
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #22
Stuff RateStuff #2 #21
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffUTEP Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #75
Pass ExplPExl #2 #21
PPAExp #2 #65
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #32
DB HavocDB #3 #110
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UTEP's OC Joe Pappalardo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
EJ Colson (Tr)21029671%21421647.2
Raymond Moore III (Tr)7714155%878876.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raymond Moore III (Tr)7631554.123
EJ Colson (Tr)10828732.730
Lamar Sperling (Tr)3923416.063
Elijah McCoy154703.112
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Carver Cheeks71929613.175
Jaylan Brown10103010.334
Judah Ezinwa476019.033
Royal Capell (Tr)104704.713

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Wilson928160
Xavier Smith602014
Justin Content586016
Kode Lowe344010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shakaun Bowser233210
Ekow Taylor122220
Vashon Brunswick II82100
Kaleb Miles (Tr)151100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Content586016
Xavier Smith602014
Preston Hickey (Tr)61001

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052