North Dakota State at San José State - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Dakota State logo

North Dakota State Bison at San José State Spartans

San José State logo
Saturday, November 28th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Spartan Stadium - San Jose, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
SJSU 2nd straight Home Game
SJSU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: North Dakota State -12  (SP+ SJSU -14)
Projected Score: NDSU: 20 - SJSU: 8 (27)
NDSU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
NDSU Travel: 1437 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (10 - 15)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 8.7 (#83)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State-8————
Sat 9/5North Dakota State vs Fordham-23————
Sat 9/12North Dakota State at Air Force-4.5————
Sat 9/19North Dakota State at Sacramento State-2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Dakota State vs Wyoming-10.5————
Sat 10/10North Dakota State at UNLV+5.5————
Sat 10/17North Dakota State vs Nevada-18————
Sat 10/24North Dakota State at New Mexico+3.5————
Sat 10/31North Dakota State vs UTEP-16.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14North Dakota State at Hawai'i+2————
Sat 11/21North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois-17.5————
Sat 11/28North Dakota State at San José State-12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule
San José State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29San José State at USC+38.5————
Fri 9/4San José State at Eastern Michigan+7.5————
Sat 9/12San José State vs Cal Poly-8.5————
Sat 9/19San José State vs Fresno State+12.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3San José State at Hawai'i+16.5————
Sat 10/10San José State vs Wyoming+4————
Sat 10/17San José State at UTEP+3————
Sat 10/24San José State at Nevada+1.5————
Sat 10/31San José State vs New Mexico+13————
Sat 11/7San José State vs Northern Illinois-3————
Sat 11/14San José State at Air Force+10————
Sat 11/21San José State vs UNLV+14.5————
Sat 11/28San José State vs North Dakota State+12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%00%000%000%00%0%0000
SJSU#67 (.18)44% (54)21.447% (28)3.06 (46)12041% (72)2832.77 (130)#98 (.2)42% (77)32.542% (67)43% (81)4.04 (107)54.82.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Offense0000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
SJSU Defense1232.529.542.1%4.041.2 - - - - - 54%44%42%43%12%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Defense0000%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
SJSU Offense1221.425.843.5%2.772.3204031202834.638%60%47%41%15%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Dakota State00:000NAN%0%0000000100
San José State1227:4720.143%26%5.854.82.31.24.31.5127.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Offense00%0%000000%0%0
SJSU Defense1254% (117)42% (67) - - - - .11 (70)3.02 (97)80% (121)8% (123)0.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - 00%0%0
SJSU Offense1238% (132)47% (28)26.1120.14.614 (107).12 (65)3.06 (46)71% (78)6% (2)0.94 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Offense00%0%000000000%0%0%0
SJSU Defense1244% (21)43% (81) - - - - - - 7 (38).34 (109)1.8 (128)31% (85)28% (55).32 (84)5% (118)2.1 (114)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
SJSU Offense1260% (5)41% (72)22.840.6283.2712.517 (30)17 (34).22 (81)1.5 (106)32% (86)32% (48).29 (72)9% (135)1.8 (125)

North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: -1.46  #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15  #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State: -1.46   San José State: -12.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State:    San José State: -14.3




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -12.685  #133
San José State's Offense Rating: 4.30  #120
San José State's Defense Rating: 25.37  #132
2026 Talent Rating: 478.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #73
San José State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.3 - 8.7
San José State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense on Road: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Dakota State 20
San José State 8

Projected Total Points: 27
San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State000 Overs
North Dakota State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#80) NDSU at (#133) SJSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDSUSJSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #80 #133
SP+SP+NR #118
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #135 #122
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #73
North Dakota State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report
San José State Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Bad, this roster is really awful on paper
(3/3) Def awful LY, DC fired. Off went fast to protect OL
(3/3) QB Weaver (Haw) most exp'd, Amisone is mobile
(3/3) RB + WR pretty bleak. Need depth to rise
(3/3) OL likely bad again, only 2 starters, 3 portals
(3/3) DL is small, has 5 w exp, could they be avg?
(3/3) DBs look pretty awful, lack bodies, exp, talent
(3/3) Finished 1-6 last year, going south quickly
San José State Injury Report
North Dakota State on Offense
CategoryCat
NDSU OffSJSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #77
ExplosiveExpNR #98
PPAPPANR #98
PowerPwr #98 #132
SP+SP+NR #115
Pts POPPONR #107
HavocHavNR #129
North Dakota State Run Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffSJSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #67
Run ExplRExpNR #37
PPAExpNR #70
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #97
Stuff RateStuffNR #128
TackleTak - NR
North Dakota State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #81
Pass ExplPExlNR #128
PPAExpNR #109
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #123
DB HavocDBNR #118
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffNDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #54NR
ExplosiveExp #58NR
PPAPPA #67NR
PowerPwr #120 #62
SP+SP+ #108NR
Pts POPPO #130NR
HavocHav #67NR
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffNDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #28NR
Run ExplRExp #78NR
PPAExp #65NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #46NR
Stuff RateStuff #85NR
TackleTak - NR
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffNDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #72NR
Pass ExplPExl #106NR
PPAExp #81NR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #2NR
DB HavocDB #135NR
Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nathan Hayes254457%381418.7
Trey Drake11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Scott9550265.339
Cortez LeGrant2513105.222
Nathan Hayes788112.634
Myles Mitchell187814.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reis Kessel15335122.350
Jackson Williams17293117.251
Mekhi Collins6159226.568
Isiah St. Romain450112.515

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Weaver (Tr)6310560%628636.0
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Luke Weaver (Tr)277302.713
Viliami Teu177014.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Anderson24361015.052
Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa98409.329
Cooper Hoch54308.613
Jabari Bates112012.012

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Bojay Filimoeatu (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Powell373020
Justin Stearns253110
Solomone Langi192110
Noa Siaosi111110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aizik Mahuka (Tr)72100
Etu Finau52111
Solomone Langi192110
Noa Siaosi111110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Buxton (Tr)110002
Runye Norton00001
Etu Finau52111