UNLV at Air Force - 2026 Matchup Preview
UNLV logo

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons

Air Force logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Rebels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#26)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 9)
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -7  (SP+ UNLV -7.5)
Projected Score: UNLV: 34 - AFA: 27 (61)
UNLV Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNLV Travel: 597 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
UNLV's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29UNLV vs Memphis+0.5————
Sat 9/5UNLV at Hawai'i-1————
Sat 9/12UNLV at North Texas+5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26UNLV at Akron-12.5————
Sat 10/3UNLV vs California-1.5————
Sat 10/10UNLV vs North Dakota State-5.5————
Sat 10/17UNLV at Air Force-7————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31UNLV vs Northern Illinois-20.5————
Sat 11/7UNLV vs Wyoming-13.5————
Sat 11/14UNLV at New Mexico+0.5————
Sat 11/21UNLV at San José State-14.5————
Sat 11/28UNLV vs Nevada-20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16————
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6————
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5————
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6————
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7————
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5————
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3————
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8————
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10————
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5————
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#15 (.3)47% (19)34.148% (19)3.19 (21)19646% (26)2514.45 (18)#107 (.21)44% (103)2845% (102)43% (95)3.78 (78)66.21.21.7
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Offense1434.134.746.8%4.451.2234471962515.649%49%48%46%16%.3
AFA Defense1230.327.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Defense142829.344.3%3.781.7 - - - - - 47%50%45%43%15%.21
AFA Offense1229.827.547.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UNLV1430:4223.145%58%7.666.21.21.74.72.1528.2
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense1449% (71)48% (19)35.3195.95.633 (30).26 (8)3.19 (21)71% (76)10% (103)1.09 (22)
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense1447% (39)45% (102) - - - - .23 (130)3.15 (112)62% (14)9% (103)1.11 (127)
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense1449% (67)46% (26)19.930.3250.98.312.624 (42)9 (34).37 (33)1.6 (51)30% (52)36% (18).47 (15)6% (51)2.1 (54)
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense1450% (93)43% (95) - - - - - - 14 (6).25 (70)1.6 (69)31% (73)31% (88).2 (27)6% (52)1.9 (28)
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -0.18  #77
UNLV's Offense Rating: 15.80  #44
UNLV's Defense Rating: 20.98  #108
2026 Talent Rating: 622.00  #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
UNLV's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
UNLV's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3  #57
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #25
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -0.18   Air Force: -5.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 4.3   Air Force: -3.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -5.005  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UNLV 34
Air Force 27

Projected Total Points: 61
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11UNLV51Air Force48UNLV -7Air Force65.5Over
202311/18Air Force27UNLV31Air Force -2.5UNLV46.5Over
202210/15UNLV7Air Force42Air Force -10Air Force50.0Under
202111/26Air Force48UNLV14Air Force -18.5Air Force49.5Over
201810/19UNLV35Air Force41Air Force -9.5UNLV55.5Over
201710/14Air Force34UNLV30Air Force -9.5UNLV65.5Under
201411/08UNLV21Air Force48Air Force -4.5Air Force0
201311/21Air Force21UNLV41Air Force -1UNLV58.5Over
201209/22UNLV38Air Force35
201111/19Air Force45UNLV17
201011/18UNLV20Air Force35
200911/14Air Force45UNLV17
200810/18UNLV28Air Force29
200710/06Air Force31UNLV14
200611/24UNLV42Air Force39
200510/15Air Force42UNLV7
200409/18UNLV10Air Force27
200310/11Air Force24UNLV7
200111/17Air Force10UNLV34
200009/29UNLV34Air Force13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1345 Overs
UNLV742 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 92 - 61 - 41 - 2
Road Teams9 - 116 - 22 - 14 - 1

(#77) UNLV at (#117) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNLVAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #77 #117
SP+SP+ #57 #80
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #92 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
UNLV Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Mullen could run new MWC w/ resources
(3/3) QB Jackson Arnold (Aub) in, still have A. Orji
(3/3) RB Jai'Den Thomas one of G6 best, good depth
(3/3) WR rebuild, 3 portals, have some talent, lack exp
(3/3) OL 3 starters, 4 portal adds, should be good
(3/3) DL looks really suspect but only took 1 portal?
(3/3) DBs by far most exp'd, 4 decent starters w depth
UNLV Injury Report
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
UNLV on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #19 #134
ExplosiveExp #25 #123
PPAPPA #15 #136
PowerPwr #44 #137
SP+SP+ #25 #101
Pts POPPO #18 #122
HavocHav #80 #133
UNLV Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #19 #110
Run ExplRExp #22 #133
PPAExp #8 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #21 #127
Stuff RateStuff #64 #133
TackleTak - NR
UNLV Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #136
Pass ExplPExl #51 #31
PPAExp #33 #135
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #103 #135
DB HavocDB #51 #126
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffUNLV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #103
ExplosiveExp #88 #112
PPAPPA #19 #107
PowerPwr #88 #108
SP+SP+ #59 #89
Pts POPPO #12 #78
HavocHav #2 #86
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNLV Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #102
Run ExplRExp #69 #127
PPAExp #18 #130
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #112
Stuff RateStuff #2 #102
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffUNLV Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #95
Pass ExplPExl #2 #69
PPAExp #2 #70
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #103
DB HavocDB #3 #52
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Air Force last year (51-48)
UNLV beat Air Force in 2023 (31-27)

  
UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)13621563%1309626.1
Alex Orji33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas1481034127.070
Jaylon Glover6438416.043
Jackson Arnold (Tr)11231182.856
Kayden McGee75618.025
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tastean Reddicks30391013.037
Taeshaun Lyons15234315.672
Jai'Den Thomas3823316.127
Amorion Walker (Tr)15201113.441

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Pope803213
Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu615011
Landyn Cleveland (Tr)332012
Tre Fulton331014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lucas Conti224310
Jake Pope803213
Elias Rudolph102200
Mark Iheanachor (Tr)41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quandarius Keyes141006
Tre Fulton331014
Jake Pope803213

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052