Air Force at New Mexico - 2026 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo

Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico logo
Saturday, November 28th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
UNM is playing their 7th straight game
AFA is playing their 10th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -10  (SP+ UNM -4)
Projected Score: AFA: 23 - UNM: 33 (56)
UNM Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 289 miles
Lobos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#40)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16————
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6————
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5————
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6————
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7————
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5————
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3————
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8————
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10————
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5————
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
New Mexico's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5New Mexico vs Central Michigan-10.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19New Mexico at Oklahoma+24.5————
Sat 9/26New Mexico at New Mexico State-13.5————
Sat 10/3New Mexico vs UTEP-17.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17New Mexico at Hawai'i+1————
Sat 10/24New Mexico vs North Dakota State-3.5————
Sat 10/31New Mexico at San José State-13————
Sat 11/7New Mexico at Nevada-14————
Sat 11/14New Mexico vs UNLV-0.5————
Sat 11/21New Mexico at Wyoming-6.5————
Sat 11/28New Mexico vs Air Force-10————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
UNM#65 (.18)42% (78)27.143% (77)3.15 (32)15242% (69)2053.96 (44)#47 (.11)40% (50)22.340% (49)40% (58)3.12 (24)48.51.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.247.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29
UNM Defense1322.318.740%3.121.3 - - - - - 47%52%40%40%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
UNM Offense1327.128.341.8%3.961.8193571522054.353%45%43%42%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
New Mexico1330:0319.439%66%5.848.51.81.35.92.8328.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)
UNM Defense1347% (35)40% (49) - - - - .04 (36)2.63 (21)83% (128)11% (32)0.97 (74)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
UNM Offense1353% (41)43% (77)35.7152.44.322 (49).14 (54)3.15 (32)75% (45)9% (67)0.99 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)
UNM Defense1352% (108)40% (58) - - - - - - 9 (100).24 (64)1.5 (42)34% (33)28% (42).27 (59)6% (52)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
UNM Offense1345% (97)42% (69)17.526.9204.87.611.717 (61)10 (119).27 (63)1.6 (50)30% (50)30% (71).33 (59)5% (22)1.9 (112)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -11.81  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.81   New Mexico: 2.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2   New Mexico: 0.9




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: 2.73  #78
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 12.81  #70
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 18.25  #85
2026 Talent Rating: 526.00  #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #64
New Mexico's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 33
Air Force 23

Projected Total Points: 56
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Air Force3New Mexico20New Mexico -3.5New Mexico53.5Under
202410/12New Mexico52Air Force37New Mexico -7New Mexico56.0Over
202211/12Air Force35New Mexico3Air Force -21Air Force37.5Over
202110/02New Mexico10Air Force38Air Force -11.5Air Force46.0Over
202011/20Air Force28New Mexico0Air Force -9.5Air Force56.5Under
201911/23New Mexico22Air Force44Air Force -24New Mexico56.5Over
201811/10Air Force42New Mexico24Air Force -14Air Force55.0Over
201709/30New Mexico56Air Force38Air Force -3New Mexico50.5Over
201610/15Air Force40New Mexico45Air Force -15New Mexico53.5Over
201511/28New Mexico47Air Force35Air Force -10.5New Mexico53.5Over
201410/18Air Force35New Mexico31Air Force -12New Mexico0
201311/08New Mexico45Air Force37New Mexico -1.5New Mexico0
201210/20Air Force28New Mexico23
201110/29New Mexico0Air Force42
201011/13Air Force48New Mexico23
200909/19New Mexico13Air Force37
200810/23Air Force23New Mexico10
200710/25New Mexico34Air Force31
200609/30Air Force24New Mexico7
200511/19New Mexico24Air Force42
200410/09Air Force28New Mexico23
200311/15New Mexico24Air Force12
200209/07Air Force38New Mexico31
200110/27New Mexico52Air Force33
200010/20Air Force23New Mexico29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico1088 Overs
Air Force1542 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams17 - 88 - 45 - 23 - 2
Road Teams8 - 174 - 82 - 32 - 5

(#117) AFA at (#78) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFAUNM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #117 #78
SP+SP+ #80 #73
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #136 #116
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #64
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
New Mexico Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Eck a fast rising HC, have talent, lack exp
(3/3) OL has 4 solid starters returning, depth is light
(3/3) DL looks OK, 5 with exp + 3 portals. Big DTs
(3/3) DBs have good exp, 4 portal adds. Lack dudes
(3/3) Big crootin class of 25, solid future foundation
(3/3) QB Jack Layne back, decent LY but TD/TO is ?
(3/3) RB rebuild, have 2 w exp but not a lot of prod
(3/3) WR Williams (FCS) + Omeire portals help rebuild
New Mexico Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #50
ExplosiveExp #88 #58
PPAPPA #19 #47
PowerPwr #88 #85
SP+SP+ #59 #66
Pts POPPO #12 #24
HavocHav #2 #36
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNM Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #49
Run ExplRExp #69 #74
PPAExp #18 #36
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #21
Stuff RateStuff #2 #18
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNM Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #58
Pass ExplPExl #2 #42
PPAExp #2 #64
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #32
DB HavocDB #3 #52
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #78 #134
ExplosiveExp #55 #123
PPAPPA #65 #136
PowerPwr #70 #137
SP+SP+ #82 #101
Pts POPPO #44 #122
HavocHav #45 #133
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #110
Run ExplRExp #59 #133
PPAExp #54 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #32 #127
Stuff RateStuff #11 #133
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #136
Pass ExplPExl #50 #31
PPAExp #63 #135
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #67 #135
DB HavocDB #22 #126
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Air Force last year (20-3)
New Mexico beat Air Force in 2024 (52-37)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne21332765%248613107.6
Luke Moga (Tr)3560%580011.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey7734954.561
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Jack Layne8715241.754
Luke Moga (Tr)349016.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Williams (Tr)41524212.846
Troy Omeire (Tr)32521516.368
Cade Keith20253312.745
Shawn Miller15199113.342

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck1287232
Tavian Combs721103
Mercury Swaim527212
Frankie Edwards471000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mercury Swaim527212
Darren Agu304221
Jaxton Eck1287232
Jalen McIver103211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech100008
Kevin Longstreet40004
Ormanie Arnold (Tr)150003