Navy at Air Force - 2026 Matchup Preview
Navy logo   Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons  Air Force logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO

 
Midshipmen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (26 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#48)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
NAVY 3rd straight Road Game
Our Line: Navy -5.5  (SP+ NAVY -9.5)
Projected Score: NAVY: 31 - AFA: 26 (57)
NAVY Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
NAVY Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#94)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Navy's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Navy vs Towson-24
Sat 9/12 Navy at Florida Atlantic-6
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/25 Navy at UAB-13.5
Sat 10/3 Navy at Air Force-5.5
Sat 10/10 Navy vs Tulsa-9
Sat 10/17 Navy at UTSA+2.5
Sat 10/24 Navy vs North Texas+1.5
Sat 10/31 Navy at Notre Dame+29
Sat 11/7 Navy vs Temple-7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/21 Navy vs Memphis+3
Sat 11/28 Navy at Charlotte-18.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 Air Force vs Navy+5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Air Force vs UConn+2.5
Sat 11/7 Air Force at Army+8

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#16 (.3)49% (9)31.552% (4)3.45 (5)28642% (58)1304.23 (28)#103 (.21)41% (57)2539% (26)44% (102)4.2 (115)48.31.11.2
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1331.525.849%4.231.1204162861305.875%23%52%42%9%.3
AFA Defense1230.327.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense132530.240.7%4.21.2 - - - - - 52%46%39%44%13%.21
AFA Offense1229.827.547.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1332:3620.452%68%5.748.31.11.24.52.1131.7
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1375% (3)52% (4)49.4286.15.841 (4).28 (6)3.45 (5)81% (13)7% (11)1.06 (32)
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1352% (97)39% (26) - - - - .11 (76)2.85 (59)76% (103)8% (111)1.06 (114)
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1323% (134)42% (58)8.2141309.315.912 (106)6 (20).46 (9)2 (3)23% (1)34% (27).52 (8)2% (2)2.3 (6)
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1346% (43)44% (102) - - - - - - 7 (100).37 (119)1.6 (104)31% (75)29% (71).3 (71)4% (129)2 (63)
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -5.61  #90
Navy's Offense Rating: 11.21  #79
Navy's Defense Rating: 21.82  #114
2026 Talent Rating: 138.00  #137
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Navy's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Navy's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #46
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #26
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.75
Average FBS Talent: 728.49

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -5.61   Air Force: -5.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.2   Air Force: -3.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -5.005  #115
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #83
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #136
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 481.4
Average Power Five Talent: 912.75
Average FBS Talent: 728.49


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 31
Air Force 26

Projected Total Points: 57
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Navy34Air Force31Navy -13.5Air Force50.5Over
202410/05Air Force7Navy34Navy -10Navy37.0Over
202310/21Navy6Air Force17Air Force -11NA34.0Under
202210/01Air Force13Navy10Air Force -14Navy38.0Under
202109/11Navy3Air Force23Air Force -6Air Force40.0Under
202010/03Air Force40Navy7Navy -6.5Air Force46.5Over
201910/05Navy34Air Force25Air Force -3Navy46.5Over
201810/06Air Force35Navy7Navy -2.5Air Force47.0Under
201710/07Navy48Air Force45Navy -8.5Air Force53.5Over
201610/01Air Force28Navy14Air Force -10.5Air Force50.5Under
201510/03Navy33Air Force11Navy -6Navy49.5Under
201410/04Air Force30Navy21Navy -4Air Force0
201310/05Navy28Air Force10Navy -11Navy0
201210/06Air Force21Navy28
201110/01Navy34Air Force35
201010/02Air Force14Navy6
200910/03Navy16Air Force13
200810/04Air Force27Navy33
200709/29Navy31Air Force20
200610/07Air Force17Navy24
200510/08Navy27Air Force24
200409/30Air Force21Navy24
200310/04Navy28Air Force25
200210/05Air Force48Navy7
200110/06Navy18Air Force24
200010/06Air Force27Navy13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1275 Overs
Navy1456 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams17 - 97 - 53 - 34 - 2
Road Teams9 - 175 - 72 - 43 - 3

(#90) NAVY at (#115) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #90 #115
SP+SP+ #46 #80
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #137 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
Navy Notes
(2/10) DC PJ Volker left to coach Ravens DBs
Navy Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #9 #134
ExplosiveExp #71 #123
PPAPPA #16 #136
PowerPwr #79 #136
SP+SP+ #26 #101
Pts POPPO #28 #122
HavocHav #3 #133
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #4 #110
Run ExplRExp #32 #133
PPAExp #6 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #5 #127
Stuff RateStuff #1 #133
TackleTak - NR
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #58 #136
Pass ExplPExl #3 #31
PPAExp #9 #135
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #11 #135
DB HavocDB #2 #126
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffNAVY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #57
ExplosiveExp #88 #115
PPAPPA #19 #103
PowerPwr #83 #114
SP+SP+ #59 #72
Pts POPPO #12 #115
HavocHav #2 #124
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNAVY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #26
Run ExplRExp #69 #114
PPAExp #18 #76
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #59
Stuff RateStuff #2 #80
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #102
Pass ExplPExl #2 #104
PPAExp #2 #119
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #111
DB HavocDB #3 #129
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-31)
Navy beat Air Force in 2024 (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Jackson Gutierrez030%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braxton Woodson4441469.474
Jackson Gutierrez2817206.123
Charles Robinson103303.37
Vic Listorti31705.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luke Hutchison5134326.863
Joshua Guerin360020.035
Jake Norris123023.023
Charles Robinson221010.511

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker977240
Giuseppe Sessi811000
Coleman Cauley783030
Phillip Hamilton490002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julian Moutome428423
Griffen Willis487331
MarcAnthony Parker977240
Marcus Bleazard112100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Julian Moutome428423
Phillip Hamilton490002

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052