North Dakota State at Air Force - 2026 Matchup Preview
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North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons

Air Force logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Dakota State -4.5  (SP+ AFA -3)
Projected Score: NDSU: 16 - AFA: 12 (28)
NDSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NDSU Travel: 680 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State-8————
Sat 9/5North Dakota State vs Fordham-23————
Sat 9/12North Dakota State at Air Force-4.5————
Sat 9/19North Dakota State at Sacramento State-2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Dakota State vs Wyoming-10.5————
Sat 10/10North Dakota State at UNLV+5.5————
Sat 10/17North Dakota State vs Nevada-18————
Sat 10/24North Dakota State at New Mexico+3.5————
Sat 10/31North Dakota State vs UTEP-16.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14North Dakota State at Hawai'i+2————
Sat 11/21North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois-17.5————
Sat 11/28North Dakota State at San José State-12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16————
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6————
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5————
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6————
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7————
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5————
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3————
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8————
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10————
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5————
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%00%000%000%00%0%0000
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Offense0000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
AFA Defense1230.327.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Defense0000%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
AFA Offense1229.827.547.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Dakota State00:000NAN%0%0000000100
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Offense00%0%000000%0%0
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - 00%0%0
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Offense00%0%000000000%0%0%0
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)

North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: -1.46  #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15  #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State: -1.46   Air Force: -5.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State:    Air Force: -3.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -5.005  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense on Road: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Dakota State 16
Air Force 12

Projected Total Points: 28
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force000 Overs
North Dakota State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#80) NDSU at (#117) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDSUAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #80 #117
SP+SP+NR #80
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #135 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
North Dakota State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
North Dakota State on Offense
CategoryCat
NDSU OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #134
ExplosiveExpNR #123
PPAPPANR #136
PowerPwr #98 #137
SP+SP+NR #101
Pts POPPONR #122
HavocHavNR #133
North Dakota State Run Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #110
Run ExplRExpNR #133
PPAExpNR #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #127
Stuff RateStuffNR #133
TackleTak - NR
North Dakota State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #136
Pass ExplPExlNR #31
PPAExpNR #135
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #135
DB HavocDBNR #126
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffNDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18NR
ExplosiveExp #88NR
PPAPPA #19NR
PowerPwr #88 #62
SP+SP+ #59NR
Pts POPPO #12NR
HavocHav #2NR
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23NR
Run ExplRExp #69NR
PPAExp #18NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17NR
Stuff RateStuff #2NR
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCatAFA OffNDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19NR
Pass ExplPExl #2NR
PPAExp #2NR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6NR
DB HavocDB #3NR
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nathan Hayes254457%381418.7
Trey Drake11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Scott9550265.339
Cortez LeGrant2513105.222
Nathan Hayes788112.634
Myles Mitchell187814.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reis Kessel15335122.350
Jackson Williams17293117.251
Mekhi Collins6159226.568
Isiah St. Romain450112.515

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052