Air Force at Northern Illinois - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies

Northern Illinois logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium - DeKalb, IL  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
NIU coming off BYE
Our Line: Air Force -6  (SP+ AFA -13.5)

Projected Score: AFA: 29 - NIU: 23 (52)
AFA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 867 miles, 1 hrs behind
Huskies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rob Harley (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (18 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Northern Illinois at Iowa+35
Sat 9/12Northern Illinois vs Illinois State-7.5
Sat 9/19Northern Illinois at Arizona+27.5
Sat 9/26Northern Illinois at Georgia State-0
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Northern Illinois vs Air Force+6
Sat 10/17Northern Illinois at Wyoming+9.5
Sat 10/24Northern Illinois vs Hawai'i+12
Sat 10/31Northern Illinois at UNLV+20.5
Sat 11/7Northern Illinois at San José State+3
Sat 11/14Northern Illinois vs Nevada-3
Sat 11/21Northern Illinois at North Dakota State+17.5
Sat 11/28Northern Illinois vs UTEP-1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
NIU#126 (.04)34% (132)17.138% (116)2.84 (84)18628% (136)993.04 (121)#86 (.19)44% (100)24.346% (111)41% (65)3.45 (49)380.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NIU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.247.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29
NIU Defense1224.320.844.1%3.451.1 - - - - - 58%40%46%41%11%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
NIU Offense1217.117.834.5%3.040.915284186994.565%34%38%28%13%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Northern Illinois1229:131532%59%4.3380.91.13.31.2127.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)
NIU Defense1258% (132)46% (111) - - - - .17 (107)3.18 (117)72% (78)7% (134)0.95 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
NIU Offense1265% (6)38% (116)41.4185.64.516 (122).11 (73)2.84 (84)69% (85)10% (87)1.11 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)
NIU Defense1240% (5)41% (65) - - - - - - 9 (55).19 (45)1.5 (55)28% (120)36% (130).5 (134)5% (114)2.1 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
NIU Offense1234% (131)28% (136)10.820.398.84.99.28 (128)6 (60) (134)1.6 (32)34% (116)23% (132).13 (127)3% (4)2.1 (46)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -11.81  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.22
Average FBS Talent: 728.45

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.81   Northern Illinois: -13.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2   Northern Illinois: -16.7




Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -13.26  #130
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 2.73  #128
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 22.55  #121
2026 Talent Rating: 564.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Northern Illinois's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Northern Illinois's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7  #128
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0  #135
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #74

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.22
Average FBS Talent: 728.45


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 29
Northern Illinois 23


Projected Total Points: 52
Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Northern Illinois's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northern Illinois000 Overs
Air Force000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#117) AFA at (#130) NIU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFANIU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #117 #130
SP+SP+ #80 #128
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #136 #102
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
Northern Illinois Notes
(3/3) Vibes: HC left, only 2 portals? Moved to MWC?
(3/3) QB Holst is back, but there's nothing good here
(3/3) RBs Wright & Johnson productive duo, have depth
(3/3) WR unit may be worst in CFB on paper.
(3/3) OL has 1.5 starters back, have bodies, very young
(3/3) F7 lacks experience, size, production
(3/3) DBs have exp and some depth.
(3/3) Program is flailing and lost. Rather depressing
(2/18) DC Rob Harley Int HC, Hammock left for NFL.
Northern Illinois Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNIU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #100
ExplosiveExp #88 #40
PPAPPA #19 #86
PowerPwr #88 #121
SP+SP+ #59 #74
Pts POPPO #12 #49
HavocHav #2 #132
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNIU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #111
Run ExplRExp #69 #62
PPAExp #18 #107
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #117
Stuff RateStuff #2 #119
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNIU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #65
Pass ExplPExl #2 #55
PPAExp #2 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #134
DB HavocDB #3 #114
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatNIU OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #132 #134
ExplosiveExp #57 #123
PPAPPA #126 #136
PowerPwr #128 #137
SP+SP+ #135 #101
Pts POPPO #121 #122
HavocHav #29 #133
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #116 #110
Run ExplRExp #15 #133
PPAExp #73 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #84 #127
Stuff RateStuff #60 #133
TackleTak - NR
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatNIU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #136 #136
Pass ExplPExl #32 #31
PPAExp #134 #135
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #87 #135
DB HavocDB #4 #126
Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

NIU's OC Quinn Sanders (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Holst7813060%689435.3
Brady Davidson408746%384334.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chavon Wright19687554.545
Telly Johnson Jr.12469045.680
Jalen Macon4521654.836
Lazaro Rogers3318915.776
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rickey Taylor Jr.9134114.941
Telly Johnson Jr.169706.117
Elijah Porter167167.067
George Dimopoulos115805.319

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mark Hensley315110
Donte Harrison302005
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
James Finley150002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
Mark Hensley315110
Landon Tate30000
Malik Armstrong10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donte Harrison302005
Dev'ion Reynolds130003
James Finley150002