Southern Miss at Troy - 2022 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy Trojans

Saturday, October 8th 2022 (7:00 PM EDT)
Troy -7 (44.0)
Troy 27 - Southern Miss: 10 (Sun Belt)

Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 25 - 24 (18 - 22 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USM coming off BYE
TROY is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -8.5 (SP+ TROY -12)
Projected Score: USM: 20 - TROY: 26 (46)
TROY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
USM Travel: 202 miles

Trojans (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (27 - 14 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Southern Miss vs Liberty	+3.5	50.0	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Southern Miss at Miami	+27.5	51.0	L 7 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Southern Miss vs Northwestern State	-32.5	50.5	W 64 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Southern Miss at Tulane	+12.0	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Southern Miss at Troy	+7.0	44.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/15	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	-4.5	53.0	W 20 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/22	Southern Miss at Texas State	-2.5	43.0	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/27	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+2.5	42.5	W 39 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Southern Miss vs Georgia State	-2.0	47.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/12	Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	48.0	L 23 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+7.5	45.0	L 20 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	-3.0	49.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Southern Miss vs Rice	-7.0	46.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Troy's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Troy at Ole Miss	+21.5	56.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Troy vs Alabama A&M	-37.5	52.0	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/17	Troy at App State	+14.0	52.0	L 28 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Troy vs Marshall	+3.0	51.5	W 16 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Troy at Western Kentucky	+5.0	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Troy vs Southern Miss	-7.0	44.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Troy vs Texas State	-16.5	47.0	W 17 - 14	U	N
Thu 10/20	Troy at South Alabama	+3.0	47.0	W 10 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Troy at Louisiana	-3.5	42.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Troy vs Army	-8.5	45.5	W 10 - 9	U	N
Sat 11/19	Troy vs UL Monroe	-15.0	48.5	W 34 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Troy at Arkansas State	-13.5	43.5	W 48 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/3	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	49.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Fri 12/16	Troy vs UTSA	-2.0	55.5	W 18 - 12	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.11	39%	25.3	40%	2.8	142	39%	208	3.69	.1	36%	23.5	37%	37%	3.86	59.5	2	1.8
TROY	.15	40%	25.6	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	17.1	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	#132 ()	35% (130)		40% (108)	2.59 (126)	109	30% (133)	175	2.75 (133)	#125 (.3)	44% (97)		45% (89)	43% (93)	4.17 (104)	48.3	2.4	0.8
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	13	25.3	17.8	38.6%	3.69	2	18	349	142	208	3.9	53%	45%	40%	39%	19%	.11
TROY Defense	14	17.1	14.1	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	13	23.5	21.8	36.4%	3.86	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	37%	37%	18%	.1
TROY Offense	14	25.6	26.7	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	13	28:38	17.9	34%	63%	6.7	59.5	2	1.8	7.8	3	3	32.3
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	13	53%	40%	36.6	141.7	3.9	15	.06	2.8	60%	13%	0.97
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.79	74%	13%	1.03
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	13	45%	39%	14.7	26.6	207.5	7.8	14.1	20	14	.25	1.7	33%	26%	.26	6%	2.2
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.18	1.7	36%	27%	.21	6%	2.1
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Southern Miss's 2022 Expected Record: -
Southern Miss's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #80
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #107
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #40

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: Troy: 6.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -3.5 Troy: 8.1

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 6.55 NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Troy's 2022 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #44
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #108
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.2 #8

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Southern Miss's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 26
Southern Miss 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Troy 26
Southern Miss 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Troy 25
Southern Miss 19

Total Points: 44

Troy Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 17.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.1

Troy's 2022 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Southern Miss	18	Troy	28	Southern Miss -6.5	Troy	50.5	Under
2024	11/30	Troy	52	Southern Miss	20	Troy -17.5	Troy	48.5	Over
2023	11/25	Southern Miss	17	Troy	35	Troy -16.5	Troy	48.5	Over
2022	10/08	Troy	27	Southern Miss	10	Troy -7	Troy	44.0	Under
2021	09/18	Southern Miss	9	Troy	21	Troy -11	Troy	49.0	Under
2019	09/14	Troy	42	Southern Miss	47	Troy -3	Southern Miss	49.0	Over
2016	09/17	Southern Miss	31	Troy	37	Southern Mississippi -11.5	Troy	61.0	Over
2008	12/21	Troy	27	Southern Miss	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	6	6	4 Overs
Southern Miss	2	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 6	2 - 5	2 - 3	0 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 2	5 - 2	2 - 0	3 - 2

(#) USM at (#) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USM	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#80	#44
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#14
OffenseOff	#119	#29
DefenseDef	#41	#17
Spec TeamsST	#118	#68
TalentTal	#85	#91
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Southern Miss Injury Report

Troy Injury Report

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#119	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#8
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#68	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#112

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#18
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	USM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#41
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#108	#40
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#38	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Troy -7.0 (44.0)
Troy won vs Southern Miss this year (27-10)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Southern Miss last year (52-20)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2023 (35-17)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-10)

USM's OC Sam Gregg (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD