Southern Miss at Texas State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, October 22nd 2022 (5:00 PM EDT)
Southern Mississippi -2.5 (43.0)
Southern Miss 20 - Texas State: 14 (Sun Belt)

Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ USM -8)
Projected Score: USM: 29 - TXST: 32 (61)
USM Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USM Travel: 520 miles

Bobcats (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Southern Miss vs Liberty	+3.5	50.0	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Southern Miss at Miami	+27.5	51.0	L 7 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Southern Miss vs Northwestern State	-32.5	50.5	W 64 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Southern Miss at Tulane	+12.0	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Southern Miss at Troy	+7.0	44.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/15	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	-4.5	53.0	W 20 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/22	Southern Miss at Texas State	-2.5	43.0	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/27	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+2.5	42.5	W 39 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Southern Miss vs Georgia State	-2.0	47.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/12	Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	48.0	L 23 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+7.5	45.0	L 20 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	-3.0	49.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Southern Miss vs Rice	-7.0	46.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Texas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Texas State at Nevada	-2.0	51.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	Texas State vs Florida International	-13.5	62.5	W 41 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Texas State at Baylor	+30.0	53.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/24	Texas State vs Houston Christian	-26.5	65.0	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Texas State at James Madison	+22.0	51.5	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/8	Texas State vs App State	+19.5	54.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Texas State at Troy	+16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Texas State vs Southern Miss	+2.5	43.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Texas State at UL Monroe	+2.5	52.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Texas State at South Alabama	+16.0	46.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/19	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-6.0	50.0	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Texas State vs Louisiana	+5.0	44.0	L 13 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.02	35%	28.8	35%	2.82	121	38%	146	2.53	.24	42%	27.4	42%	41%	3.11	62.5	2.6	1.9
TXST	.18	42%	36.5	46%	3.43	149	39%	193	4.12	.31	48%	29	47%	49%	4.18	58.8	1.7	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	12	28.8	28.4	35.5%	2.53	2.6	16	266	121	146	3.1	52%	46%	35%	38%	25%	.02
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	47.9%	4.18	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	49%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	12	27.4	27.6	41.6%	3.11	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	41%	19%	.24
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	41.8%	4.12	1.7	20	342	149	193	4	48%	50%	46%	39%	21%	.18

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	12	30:52	15.9	29%	41%	8.2	62.5	2.6	1.9	5.7	1.9	4	29.1
Texas State	12	28:18	20.1	33%	67%	5.8	58.8	1.7	1.1	4.7	1.5	1	26.8

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	12	52%	35%	38.8	120.8	3.1	8	-.07	2.82	67%	18%	1.02
TXST Defense	12	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.24	3.51	81%	10%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	12	53%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.27	81%	12%	1.05
TXST Offense	12	48%	46%	36.9	149.2	4	17	.16	3.43	84%	14%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	12	46%	38%	13.3	23.9	145.5	6.1	10.9	14	17	.2	1.6	37%	25%	.12	7%	2.1
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.4	30%	40%	.54	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	12	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.32	1.9	32%	32%	.39	7%	2.2
TXST Offense	12	50%	39%	18.6	32.3	193.1	6	10.4	15	12	.22	1.5	36%	28%	.36	7%	2.2

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Southern Miss's 2022 Expected Record: -
Southern Miss's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #80
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #107
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #40

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: Texas State: -3.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -3.5 Texas State: -11.5

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -3.25 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #102
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #110
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #79

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 32
Southern Miss 29

Projected Total Points: 61

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Southern Miss	14	Texas State	41	Southern Miss -3	Texas State	65.5	Under
2024	11/16	Texas State	58	Southern Miss	3	Texas State -27.5	Texas State	56.5	Over
2023	09/30	Southern Miss	36	Texas State	50	Texas State -6.5	Texas State	60.0	Over
2022	10/22	Texas State	14	Southern Miss	20	Southern Mississippi -2.5	Southern Miss	43.0	Under
2015	09/19	Texas State	50	Southern Miss	56	Texas State -2	Southern Miss	67.0	Over
2013	08/31	Southern Miss	15	Texas State	22	Southern Mississippi -9.5	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	4	4	3 Overs
Southern Miss	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 5	1 - 5	1 - 3	0 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 1	5 - 1	2 - 0	3 - 1

(#) USM at (#) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USM	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#80	#102
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#42
OffenseOff	#119	#98
DefenseDef	#41	#3
Spec TeamsST	#118	#99
TalentTal	#85	#90
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Southern Miss Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#119	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#98	#41
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#110	#40
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#113	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#22	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Southern Miss 2.5 (43.0)
Southern Miss won at Texas State this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Southern Miss last year (41-14)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2024 (58-3)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (50-36)

USM's OC Sam Gregg (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TXST's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD