Toledo at San Diego State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, September 24th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -2.5 (44.5)
San Diego State 17 - Toledo: 14

Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Road Game
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ TOL -0.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 18 - SDSU: 22 (40)
TOL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 1929 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Aztecs (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (16 - 6)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Toledo vs Long Island University	-47.5	57.0	W 37 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/10	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-28.0	49.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Toledo at Ohio State	+34.5	63.0	L 21 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/24	Toledo at San Diego State	-2.5	44.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-6.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Toledo at Northern Illinois	-6.5	59.0	W 52 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Toledo vs Kent State	-7.0	62.5	W 52 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Toledo at Buffalo	-7.0	56.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/29	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-4.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8	Toledo vs Ball State	-11.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
Tue 11/15	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-14.5	47.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/25	Toledo at Western Michigan	-8.5	50.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/3	Toledo vs Ohio	-3.5	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/20	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	San Diego State vs Arizona	-6.0	46.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-33.5	50.5	W 38 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/17	San Diego State at Utah	+21.5	48.0	L 7 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/24	San Diego State vs Toledo	+2.5	44.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Fri 9/30	San Diego State at Boise State	+6.0	38.0	L 13 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/8	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-23.5	48.5	W 16 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	San Diego State at Nevada	-7.5	36.0	W 23 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/29	San Diego State at Fresno State	+10.0	43.5	L 28 - 32	O	Y
Sat 11/5	San Diego State vs UNLV	-5.0	47.0	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/12	San Diego State vs San José State	+2.5	41.0	W 43 - 27	O	Y
Fri 11/18	San Diego State at New Mexico	-15.0	36.0	W 34 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/26	San Diego State vs Air Force	+2.0	43.5	L 3 - 13	U	N
Sat 12/24	San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee	-7.0	47.0	L 23 - 25	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.29	40%	30.8	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	13.3	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5
SDSU	.15	40%	26.4	40%	3	175	39%	168	3.57	.07	36%	15.4	33%	38%	3.46	67.9	1	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29
SDSU Defense	14	15.4	6.8	35.8%	3.46	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	39%	61%	33%	38%	20%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09
SDSU Offense	14	26.4	31.2	39.7%	3.57	1	19	343	175	168	4.3	56%	43%	40%	39%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4
San Diego State	14	32:04	18.6	32%	63%	7.4	67.9	1	1.9	6.8	2.9	5	30.5

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33
SDSU Defense	14	39%	33%	-	-	-	-	-.06	2.61	65%	12%	0.84

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07
SDSU Offense	14	56%	40%	40.8	174.9	4.3	26	.17	3	76%	10%	1.14

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3
SDSU Defense	14	61%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.18	1.5	36%	26%	.19	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2
SDSU Offense	14	43%	39%	14.9	25.8	167.9	6.5	11.3	16	5	.17	1.4	33%	28%	.24	5%	1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7 #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: San Diego State: 0.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -3.7 San Diego State: -4.4

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 0.3 NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
San Diego State's 2022 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #85
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #124
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 22
Toledo 18

Projected Total Points: 40

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/24	San Diego State	17	Toledo	14	Toledo -2.5	San Diego State	44.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	1	1	0 Overs
Toledo	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#) TOL at (#) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#82	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#80
OffenseOff	#81	#121
DefenseDef	#5	#35
Spec TeamsST	#135	#45
TalentTal	#80	#115
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#35
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#68	#35
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#100	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#116

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#120	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#5
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#124	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#95	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#123	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Toledo 2.5 (44.5)
San Diego State won vs Toledo this year (17-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

SDSU's OC Jeff Hecklinski (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD