Toledo at Western Michigan - 2022 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan BroncosWestern Michigan logo
Friday, November 25th 2022 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -8.5 (50.5)
Western Michigan 20 - Toledo: 14  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -4.5  (SP+ TOL -13.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 25 - WMU: 24 (49)
TOL Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
TOL Travel: 111 miles
Broncos (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Tim Lester (32 - 25)
Avg Score : 19 - 24 (23 - 26 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1 Toledo vs Long Island University-47.557.0W 37 - 0UN
Sat 9/10 Toledo vs Massachusetts-28.049.0W 55 - 10OY
Sat 9/17 Toledo at Ohio State+34.563.0L 21 - 77ON
Sat 9/24 Toledo at San Diego State-2.544.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 10/1 Toledo vs Central Michigan-6.556.0W 38 - 17UY
Sat 10/8 Toledo at Northern Illinois-6.559.0W 52 - 32OY
Sat 10/15 Toledo vs Kent State-7.062.5W 52 - 31OY
Sat 10/22 Toledo at Buffalo-7.056.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/29 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-4.054.0W 27 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8 Toledo vs Ball State-11.050.0W 28 - 21UN
Tue 11/15 Toledo vs Bowling Green-14.547.0L 35 - 42ON
Fri 11/25 Toledo at Western Michigan-8.550.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 12/3 Toledo vs Ohio-3.554.5W 17 - 7UY
Tue 12/20 Toledo vs Liberty-4.051.5W 21 - 19UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Western Michigan's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Western Michigan at Michigan State+22.054.5L 13 - 35UY
Sat 9/10 Western Michigan at Ball State-6.551.5W 37 - 30OY
Sat 9/17 Western Michigan vs Pittsburgh+10.046.0L 13 - 34ON
Sat 9/24 Western Michigan at San José State+6.549.0L 6 - 34UN
Sat 10/1 Western Michigan vs New Hampshire-15.052.5W 44 - 7UY
Sat 10/8 Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-4.555.5L 23 - 45ON
Sat 10/15 Western Michigan vs Ohio-2.061.5L 14 - 33UN
Sat 10/22 Western Michigan at Miami (OH)+7.044.0W 16 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2 Western Michigan at Bowling Green+5.048.0L 9 - 13UY
Wed 11/9 Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+1.049.0L 21 - 24UN
Wed 11/16 Western Michigan at Central Michigan+10.049.0W 12 - 10UY
Fri 11/25 Western Michigan vs Toledo+8.550.5W 20 - 14UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%31.344%317843%2254.23.0734%25.136%34%3.9755.41.91.6
WMU.0634%1934%2.8713635%1662.79.1944%24.147%42%3.3862.91.82.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
WMU#43 (.24)45% (33)45% (59)3.05 (62)18446% (27)1874.11 (49)#122 (.29)49% (128)48% (115)51% (132)4.38 (119)39.211.6



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1431.325.842.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
WMU Defense1224.126.243.8%3.382.3 - - - - - 52%47%47%42%21%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1425.13434.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
WMU Offense121922.534.1%2.791.8173021361663.552%46%34%35%23%.06

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Western Michigan1230:2516.631%48%6.762.91.82.36.72.6328.7
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
WMU Defense1252%47% - - - - .153.1379%14%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
WMU Offense1252%34%38.8136.33.514.032.8768%15%1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
WMU Defense1247%42% - - - - - - 11.271.731%31%.267%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
WMU Offense1246%35%13.927.9165.75.911.91013.181.739%23%.259%2.3

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7  #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo:    Western Michigan: -6.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -3.7   Western Michigan: -17.3




Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -6.15 NR
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Western Michigan's 2022 Expected Record: -
Western Michigan's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.3  #121
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 11.2  #129
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #68

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 25
Western Michigan 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Michigan 24
Toledo 24

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 27
Western Michigan 25

Total Points: 52
Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 19 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.5
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.2

Western Michigan's 2022 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Michigan14Toledo13Toledo -13.5Western Michigan48.5Under
202309/23Toledo49Western Michigan31Toledo -21.5Western Michigan52.5Over
202211/25Western Michigan20Toledo14Toledo -8.5Western Michigan50.5Under
202110/23Toledo34Western Michigan15Western Michigan -1.5Toledo54.5Under
202011/11Western Michigan41Toledo38Western Michigan -1.5Western Michigan58.5Over
201910/05Toledo31Western Michigan24Toledo -1.5Toledo74.0Under
201810/25Western Michigan24Toledo51Western Michigan -4Toledo69.0Over
201711/24Toledo37Western Michigan10Toledo -12Toledo62.0Under
201611/25Western Michigan55Toledo35Western Michigan -9.5Western Michigan71.5Over
201511/27Toledo30Western Michigan35Toledo -7Western Michigan58.0Over
201410/04Western Michigan19Toledo20Toledo -10Western Michigan0
201310/05Toledo47Western Michigan20Toledo -19Toledo0
201209/29Western Michigan17Toledo37
201111/08Toledo66Western Michigan63
201009/18Western Michigan24Toledo37
200910/10Toledo26Western Michigan58
200811/15Western Michigan27Toledo17
200709/29Toledo28Western Michigan42
200609/09Western Michigan31Toledo10
200509/10Toledo56Western Michigan23
200410/09Western Michigan33Toledo59
200311/22Toledo34Western Michigan17
200111/06Toledo41Western Michigan35
200009/22Western Michigan21Toledo14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Michigan1075 Overs
Toledo1455 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 89 - 35 - 34 - 0
Road Teams8 - 163 - 90 - 43 - 5

(#) TOL at (#) WMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLWMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #82 #121
Perf GradeGrade #47 #78
OffenseOff #81 #111
DefenseDef #5 #20
Spec TeamsST #135 #94
TalentTal #80 #97
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #20
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #68 #68
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Run GameRun #100 #22
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #81 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #59
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Pass GamePass #64 #56
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #120 #11
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Western Michigan on Offense
CategoryCatWMU OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #5
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #129 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Western Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #127 #8
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #26
Western Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCatWMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #121 #6
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #91 #21
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 48° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Toledo 8.5 (50.5)
Western Michigan won vs Toledo this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Western Michigan in 2023 (49-31)
Western Michigan beat Toledo in 2022 (20-14)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

WMU's OC Eric Evans (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Lou Esposito (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD