Toledo at Western Michigan - 2022 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos

Friday, November 25th 2022 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -8.5 (50.5)
Western Michigan 20 - Toledo: 14 (Mid-American)

Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ TOL -13.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 20 - WMU: 21 (41)
TOL Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
TOL Travel: 111 miles

Broncos (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Tim Lester (32 - 25)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (29 - 16 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
WMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Toledo vs Long Island University	-47.5	57.0	W 37 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/10	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-28.0	49.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Toledo at Ohio State	+34.5	63.0	L 21 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/24	Toledo at San Diego State	-2.5	44.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-6.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Toledo at Northern Illinois	-6.5	59.0	W 52 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Toledo vs Kent State	-7.0	62.5	W 52 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Toledo at Buffalo	-7.0	56.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/29	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-4.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8	Toledo vs Ball State	-11.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
Tue 11/15	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-14.5	47.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/25	Toledo at Western Michigan	-8.5	50.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/3	Toledo vs Ohio	-3.5	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/20	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Western Michigan's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Western Michigan at Michigan State	+22.0	54.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Western Michigan at Ball State	-6.5	51.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Western Michigan vs Pittsburgh	+10.0	46.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/24	Western Michigan at San José State	+6.5	49.0	L 6 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/1	Western Michigan vs New Hampshire	-15.0	52.5	W 44 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-4.5	55.5	L 23 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/15	Western Michigan vs Ohio	-2.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/22	Western Michigan at Miami (OH)	+7.0	44.0	W 16 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2	Western Michigan at Bowling Green	+5.0	48.0	L 9 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/9	Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+1.0	49.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Wed 11/16	Western Michigan at Central Michigan	+10.0	49.0	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/25	Western Michigan vs Toledo	+8.5	50.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.29	40%	30.8	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	13.3	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5
WMU	.31	50%	24.9	52%	3.54	214	47%	254	4.16	.22	39%	17.4	43%	35%	3.72	58.9	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29
WMU Defense	13	17.4	15.7	38.9%	3.72	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	35%	22%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09
WMU Offense	13	24.9	29	49.9%	4.16	1.2	25	468	214	254	4.7	58%	42%	52%	47%	13%	.31

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4
Western Michigan	13	35:17	24.8	46%	46%	6.8	58.9	1.2	1.3	7.5	3.3	2	28.2

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33
WMU Defense	13	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.21	2.82	71%	16%	1.17

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07
WMU Offense	13	58%	52%	45.4	214.1	4.7	31	.28	3.54	67%	8%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3
WMU Defense	13	49%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.23	1.8	35%	26%	.22	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2
WMU Offense	13	42%	47%	17.9	28.3	253.6	9	14.2	23	6	.4	1.7	25%	35%	.47	6%	2.2

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7 #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: Western Michigan: -6.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -3.7 Western Michigan: -17.3

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -6.15 NR
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Western Michigan's 2022 Expected Record: -
Western Michigan's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.3 #121
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 11.2 #129
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #68

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Western Michigan 21
Toledo 20

Projected Total Points: 41

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

Western Michigan's 2022 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Western Michigan	14	Toledo	13	Toledo -13.5	Western Michigan	48.5	Under
2023	09/23	Toledo	49	Western Michigan	31	Toledo -21.5	Western Michigan	52.5	Over
2022	11/25	Western Michigan	20	Toledo	14	Toledo -8.5	Western Michigan	50.5	Under
2021	10/23	Toledo	34	Western Michigan	15	Western Michigan -1.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2020	11/11	Western Michigan	41	Toledo	38	Western Michigan -1.5	Western Michigan	58.5	Over
2019	10/05	Toledo	31	Western Michigan	24	Toledo -1.5	Toledo	74.0	Under
2018	10/25	Western Michigan	24	Toledo	51	Western Michigan -4	Toledo	69.0	Over
2017	11/24	Toledo	37	Western Michigan	10	Toledo -12	Toledo	62.0	Under
2016	11/25	Western Michigan	55	Toledo	35	Western Michigan -9.5	Western Michigan	71.5	Over
2015	11/27	Toledo	30	Western Michigan	35	Toledo -7	Western Michigan	58.0	Over
2014	10/04	Western Michigan	19	Toledo	20	Toledo -10	Western Michigan	0
2013	10/05	Toledo	47	Western Michigan	20	Toledo -19	Toledo	0
2012	09/29	Western Michigan	17	Toledo	37
2011	11/08	Toledo	66	Western Michigan	63
2010	09/18	Western Michigan	24	Toledo	37
2009	10/10	Toledo	26	Western Michigan	58
2008	11/15	Western Michigan	27	Toledo	17
2007	09/29	Toledo	28	Western Michigan	42
2006	09/09	Western Michigan	31	Toledo	10
2005	09/10	Toledo	56	Western Michigan	23
2004	10/09	Western Michigan	33	Toledo	59
2003	11/22	Toledo	34	Western Michigan	17
2001	11/06	Toledo	41	Western Michigan	35
2000	09/22	Western Michigan	21	Toledo	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Michigan	10	7	5 Overs
Toledo	14	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 8	9 - 3	5 - 3	4 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 16	3 - 9	0 - 4	3 - 5

(#) TOL at (#) WMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	WMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#82	#121
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#78
OffenseOff	#81	#111
DefenseDef	#5	#20
Spec TeamsST	#135	#94
TalentTal	#80	#97
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

Western Michigan Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	WMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#20
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#68	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#100	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#120	#11
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Western Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	WMU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#5
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#129	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	WMU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#127	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Western Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	WMU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#91	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Toledo 8.5 (50.5)
Western Michigan won vs Toledo this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Toledo last year (14-13)
Toledo beat Western Michigan in 2023 (49-31)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

WMU's OC Eric Evans (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Lou Esposito (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD