Toledo at Northern Illinois - 2022 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois HuskiesNorthern Illinois logo
Saturday, October 8th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -6.5 (59.0)
Toledo 52 - Northern Illinois: 32  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 18.6 MPH
NIU is playing their 6th straight game
TOL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -5  (SP+ TOL -15)
Projected Score: TOL: 32 - NIU: 31 (63)
TOL Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TOL Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Huskies (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (14 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (25 - 38 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1 Toledo vs Long Island University-47.557.0W 37 - 0UN
Sat 9/10 Toledo vs Massachusetts-28.049.0W 55 - 10OY
Sat 9/17 Toledo at Ohio State+34.563.0L 21 - 77ON
Sat 9/24 Toledo at San Diego State-2.544.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 10/1 Toledo vs Central Michigan-6.556.0W 38 - 17UY
Sat 10/8 Toledo at Northern Illinois-6.559.0W 52 - 32OY
Sat 10/15 Toledo vs Kent State-7.062.5W 52 - 31OY
Sat 10/22 Toledo at Buffalo-7.056.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/29 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-4.054.0W 27 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8 Toledo vs Ball State-11.050.0W 28 - 21UN
Tue 11/15 Toledo vs Bowling Green-14.547.0L 35 - 42ON
Fri 11/25 Toledo at Western Michigan-8.550.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 12/3 Toledo vs Ohio-3.554.5W 17 - 7UY
Tue 12/20 Toledo vs Liberty-4.051.5W 21 - 19UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1 Northern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-35.055.5W 34 - 27ON
Sat 9/10 Northern Illinois at Tulsa+6.563.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 9/17 Northern Illinois vs Vanderbilt-2.558.5L 28 - 38ON
Sat 9/24 Northern Illinois at Kentucky+27.052.5L 23 - 31OY
Sat 10/1 Northern Illinois at Ball State-3.558.5L 38 - 44ON
Sat 10/8 Northern Illinois vs Toledo+6.559.0L 32 - 52ON
Sat 10/15 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan+3.564.5W 39 - 10UY
Sat 10/22 Northern Illinois at Ohio-2.565.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2 Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan-4.554.0L 22 - 35ON
Wed 11/9 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan-1.049.0W 24 - 21UY
Wed 11/16 Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)-1.044.0L 23 - 29ON
Sat 11/26 Northern Illinois vs Akron-9.551.5L 12 - 44ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%31.344%317843%2254.23.0734%25.136%34%3.9755.41.91.6
NIU.1941%27.340%3.1619043%1833.63.2744%32.843%47%4.1462.51.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)44% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)41% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1431.325.842.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
NIU Defense1232.837.544.5%4.141.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%47%15%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1425.13434.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
NIU Offense1227.325.240.7%3.631.3193731901834.859%39%40%43%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Northern Illinois1230:4818.839%48%6.362.51.31.84.62.4130
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
NIU Defense1251%43% - - - - .113.2673%9%0.9
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
NIU Offense1259%40%39.8190.44.819.163.1682%8%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
NIU Defense1247%47% - - - - - - 8.491.831%32%.516%2.5
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
NIU Offense1239%43%15.427.3182.76.711.91814.331.632%29%.188%1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7  #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo:    Northern Illinois: -6.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -3.7   Northern Illinois: -18.8




Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -6.9 NR
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northern Illinois's 2022 Expected Record: -
Northern Illinois's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8  #124
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #77
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #130

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 32
Northern Illinois 31

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 34
Toledo 31

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
Northern Illinois 28

Total Points: 60
Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.2
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.5

Northern Illinois's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/05Toledo42Northern Illinois3Toledo -14.5Toledo42.5Over
202410/19Northern Illinois6Toledo13Northern Illinois -3Toledo42.5Under
202309/30Toledo35Northern Illinois33Toledo -13Northern Illinois48.0Over
202210/08Northern Illinois32Toledo52Toledo -6.5Toledo59.0Over
202110/09Toledo20Northern Illinois22Toledo -13Northern Illinois51.5Under
202012/05Northern Illinois24Toledo41Toledo -9Toledo53.5Over
201911/13Toledo28Northern Illinois31Toledo -2.5Northern Illinois54.5Over
201811/07Northern Illinois38Toledo15Northern Illinois -3.5Northern Illinois54.0Under
201711/02Toledo27Northern Illinois17Toledo -7.5Toledo56.5Under
201611/09Northern Illinois24Toledo31Toledo -7.5Northern Illinois69.5Under
201511/03Toledo27Northern Illinois32Toledo -7Northern Illinois62.0Under
201411/11Northern Illinois27Toledo24Northern Illinois -3.5Toledo0
201311/20Toledo17Northern Illinois35Northern Illinois -3Northern Illinois0
201211/14Northern Illinois31Toledo24
201111/01Toledo60Northern Illinois63
201011/09Northern Illinois65Toledo30
200910/17Toledo20Northern Illinois19
200810/18Northern Illinois38Toledo7
200710/27Toledo70Northern Illinois21
200611/07Northern Illinois13Toledo17
200511/16Toledo17Northern Illinois35
200411/09Northern Illinois17Toledo31
200311/15Toledo49Northern Illinois30
200109/29Toledo41Northern Illinois20
200011/03Northern Illinois24Toledo38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northern Illinois1175 Overs
Toledo1466 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 134 - 93 - 61 - 3
Road Teams13 - 129 - 43 - 16 - 3

(#) TOL at (#) NIU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLNIU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #82 #124
Perf GradeGrade #47 #73
OffenseOff #81 #71
DefenseDef #5 #65
Spec TeamsST #135 #103
TalentTal #80 #110
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffNIU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #65
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #68 #130
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #100 #23
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #81 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #87
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #64 #121
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #120 #51
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Northern Illinois on Offense
CategoryCatNIU OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #71 #5
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #77 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Northern Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #101 #8
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #26
Northern Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCatNIU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #81 #6
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #68 #21
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56° - Wind: 19 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Toledo 6.5 (59.0)
Toledo won at Northern Illinois this year (52-32)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (52-32)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD