Toledo at Northern Illinois - 2022 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, October 8th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -6.5 (59.0)
Toledo 52 - Northern Illinois: 32 (Mid-American)

Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NIU is playing their 6th straight game
TOL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ TOL -15)
Projected Score: TOL: 24 - NIU: 16 (40)
TOL Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TOL Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Huskies (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (14 - 18)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (18 - 21 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Toledo vs Long Island University	-47.5	57.0	W 37 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/10	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-28.0	49.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Toledo at Ohio State	+34.5	63.0	L 21 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/24	Toledo at San Diego State	-2.5	44.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-6.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Toledo at Northern Illinois	-6.5	59.0	W 52 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Toledo vs Kent State	-7.0	62.5	W 52 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Toledo at Buffalo	-7.0	56.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/29	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-4.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8	Toledo vs Ball State	-11.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
Tue 11/15	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-14.5	47.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/25	Toledo at Western Michigan	-8.5	50.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/3	Toledo vs Ohio	-3.5	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/20	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois	-35.0	55.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/10	Northern Illinois at Tulsa	+6.5	63.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Northern Illinois vs Vanderbilt	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/24	Northern Illinois at Kentucky	+27.0	52.5	L 23 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-3.5	58.5	L 38 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/8	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	+6.5	59.0	L 32 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/15	Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan	+3.5	64.5	W 39 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Northern Illinois at Ohio	-2.5	65.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-4.5	54.0	L 22 - 35	O	N
Wed 11/9	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-1.0	49.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Wed 11/16	Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)	-1.0	44.0	L 23 - 29	O	N
Sat 11/26	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-9.5	51.5	L 12 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.29	40%	30.8	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	13.3	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5
NIU	.31	47%	17.1	49%	3.44	242	44%	187	4.18	.35	49%	24.3	53%	45%	4.37	45.3	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29
NIU Defense	14	24.3	20.8	49%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	53%	45%	13%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09
NIU Offense	14	17.1	17.8	46.7%	4.18	1.3	23	429	242	187	5.2	63%	36%	49%	44%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4
Northern Illinois	14	33:30	22.9	37%	84%	5	45.3	1.3	0.9	4.4	1.4	3	29.1

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33
NIU Defense	14	52%	53%	-	-	-	-	.37	3.65	78%	9%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07
NIU Offense	14	63%	49%	46.4	241.5	5.2	36	.29	3.44	77%	10%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3
NIU Defense	14	48%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.34	1.7	30%	37%	.49	4%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2
NIU Offense	14	36%	44%	14.6	25.4	187.4	7.4	12.8	15	8	.38	1.6	31%	34%	.44	4%	2

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7 #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: Northern Illinois: -6.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -3.7 Northern Illinois: -18.8

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -6.9 NR
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northern Illinois's 2022 Expected Record: -
Northern Illinois's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #124
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #77
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #130

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 24
Northern Illinois 16

Projected Total Points: 40

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Northern Illinois's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/05	Toledo	42	Northern Illinois	3	Toledo -14.5	Toledo	42.5	Over
2024	10/19	Northern Illinois	6	Toledo	13	Northern Illinois -3	Toledo	42.5	Under
2023	09/30	Toledo	35	Northern Illinois	33	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	48.0	Over
2022	10/08	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo	52	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	59.0	Over
2021	10/09	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	22	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	51.5	Under
2020	12/05	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	41	Toledo -9	Toledo	53.5	Over
2019	11/13	Toledo	28	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2018	11/07	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	15	Northern Illinois -3.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2017	11/02	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo -7.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2016	11/09	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	31	Toledo -7.5	Northern Illinois	69.5	Under
2015	11/03	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo -7	Northern Illinois	62.0	Under
2014	11/11	Northern Illinois	27	Toledo	24	Northern Illinois -3.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/20	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	0
2012	11/14	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo	24
2011	11/01	Toledo	60	Northern Illinois	63
2010	11/09	Northern Illinois	65	Toledo	30
2009	10/17	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	19
2008	10/18	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	7
2007	10/27	Toledo	70	Northern Illinois	21
2006	11/07	Northern Illinois	13	Toledo	17
2005	11/16	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35
2004	11/09	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo	31
2003	11/15	Toledo	49	Northern Illinois	30
2001	09/29	Toledo	41	Northern Illinois	20
2000	11/03	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	11	7	5 Overs
Toledo	14	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	4 - 9	3 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	9 - 4	3 - 1	6 - 3

(#) TOL at (#) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#82	#124
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#73
OffenseOff	#81	#71
DefenseDef	#5	#65
Spec TeamsST	#135	#103
TalentTal	#80	#110
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#65
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#68	#130
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#100	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#87

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#120	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#5
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#77	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#101	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#81	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#68	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Toledo 6.5 (59.0)
Toledo won at Northern Illinois this year (52-32)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (42-3)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2024 (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD