South Florida at East Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates

Thursday, October 28th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
East Carolina -9.5 (55.5)
East Carolina 29 - South Florida: 14 (American Athletic)

Bulls (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Charlie Weis Jr. (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -9 (SP+ ECU -13)
Projected Score: USF: 29 - ECU: 31 (60)
ECU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
USF Travel: 607 miles

Pirates (7 - 5) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Houston (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	South Florida at NC State	+20.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/11	South Florida vs Florida	+29.0	57.0	L 20 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/18	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-22.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/25	South Florida at BYU	+23.5	54.5	L 27 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/2	South Florida at SMU	+21.5	68.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	South Florida vs Tulsa	+7.5	56.0	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/23	South Florida vs Temple	-1.5	54.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/28	South Florida at East Carolina	+9.5	55.5	L 14 - 29	U	N
Sat 11/6	South Florida vs Houston	+13.5	53.0	L 42 - 54	O	Y
Fri 11/12	South Florida vs Cincinnati	+24.5	58.5	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/20	South Florida at Tulane	+5.5	59.5	L 14 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/26	South Florida at UCF	+17.0	62.0	L 13 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

East Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	East Carolina at App State	+9.0	55.5	L 19 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/11	East Carolina vs South Carolina	+3.0	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/18	East Carolina at Marshall	+11.0	58.5	W 42 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/25	East Carolina vs Charleston Southern	-24.5	59.0	W 31 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	East Carolina vs Tulane	+3.0	65.0	W 52 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/9	East Carolina at UCF	+10.0	65.0	L 16 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	East Carolina at Houston	+13.5	56.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Thu 10/28	East Carolina vs South Florida	-9.5	55.5	W 29 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/6	East Carolina vs Temple	-15.5	52.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/13	East Carolina at Memphis	+4.0	58.5	W 30 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/20	East Carolina at Navy	-3.5	46.0	W 38 - 35	O	N
Fri 11/26	East Carolina vs Cincinnati	+14.5	56.5	L 13 - 35	U	N
Mon 12/27	East Carolina vs Boston College	+3.0	52.5

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	.08	40%	40.5	40%	2.83	149	41%	217	2.29	.22	47%	23.4	46%	48%	4.29	48.9	1.9	1.4
ECU	.12	39%	32.7	38%	2.66	174	40%	230	3.29	.19	44%	20.1	40%	49%	3.93	58.2	2.2	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	9	40.5	35	40.3%	2.29	1.9	21	365	149	217	4	48%	51%	40%	41%	20%	.08
ECU Defense	9	20.1	19.8	44.3%	3.93	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	40%	49%	15%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	9	23.4	32.3	46.6%	4.29	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	46%	48%	13%	.22
ECU Offense	9	32.7	36.2	38.9%	3.29	2.2	22	404	174	230	4.3	49%	51%	38%	40%	21%	.12

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	9	28:27	21	31%	29%	5.3	48.9	1.9	1.4	4.8	0.8	3	28.5
East Carolina	9	31:03	22	33%	56%	6.3	58.2	2.2	2.2	5.1	1.4	3	29.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	9	48%	40%	37.4	148.8	4	11	.07	2.83	72%	14%	0.93
ECU Defense	9	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.85	59%	9%	1.18

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	9	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.94	79%	8%	0.95
ECU Offense	9	49%	38%	40.1	173.6	4.3	11	.04	2.66	61%	13%	1.04

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	9	51%	41%	20.8	34.7	216.6	6.3	10.4	12	6	.09	1.4	34%	25%	.09	6%	2
ECU Defense	9	47%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.27	1.4	29%	34%	.36	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	9	44%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.34	1.6	29%	34%	.46	4%	2.1
ECU Offense	9	51%	40%	19.6	32.6	230.1	7.1	11.8	19	9	.19	1.6	31%	27%	.2	8%	2.1

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: NR
South Florida's Offense Rating: NR
South Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
South Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.1 #111
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #96
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #118

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: East Carolina: 2.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -12.1 East Carolina: 0.5

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 2.75 NR
East Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
East Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
East Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
East Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #78
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #80
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #83

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
East Carolina 31
South Florida 29

Projected Total Points: 60

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	10/01	South Florida	28	East Carolina	48	East Carolina -10	East Carolina	55.5	Over
2021	10/28	East Carolina	29	South Florida	14	East Carolina -9.5	East Carolina	55.5	Under
2020	10/10	South Florida	24	East Carolina	44	South Florida -5.5	East Carolina	58.5	Over
2019	10/26	East Carolina	20	South Florida	45	South Florida -1	South Florida	51.0	Over
2018	09/22	South Florida	20	East Carolina	13	South Florida -20.5	East Carolina	67.5	Under
2017	09/30	East Carolina	31	South Florida	61	South Florida -22.5	South Florida	73.0	Over
2016	10/08	South Florida	38	East Carolina	22	South Florida -20	East Carolina	68.5	Under
2015	11/07	East Carolina	17	South Florida	22	East Carolina -3	South Florida	55.0	Under
2014	10/11	South Florida	17	East Carolina	28	East Carolina -14.5	South Florida	0
2006	12/23	East Carolina	7	South Florida	24
2004	11/13	South Florida	41	East Carolina	17
2003	11/08	East Carolina	37	South Florida	38
2002	10/19	East Carolina	30	South Florida	46

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	4	5	4 Overs
South Florida	9	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 9	2 - 7	1 - 4	1 - 3
Road Teams	9 - 4	7 - 2	3 - 1	4 - 1

(#) USF at (#) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#78
Perf GradeGrade	#114	#104
OffenseOff	#111	#103
DefenseDef	#118	#87
Spec TeamsST	#29	#122
TalentTal	#73	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Florida Injury Report

East Carolina Injury Report

South Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	USF Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#87
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#96	#83
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#87	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#68

South Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#124	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#126
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#103	#118
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#80	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#96	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#135

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#111
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#124
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
East Carolina -9.5 (55.5)
East Carolina won vs South Florida this year (29-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USF's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Glenn Spencer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD