UCF at Florida - 2021 Matchup Preview

Thursday, December 23rd 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
Florida -7.0 (56.0) (-275) Open: -7.0 | 56.5
UCF 29 - Florida: 17 (Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl)

Knights (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -3 (SP+ FLA -6)
Projected Score: UCF: 20 - FLA: 27 (47)
FLA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UCF Travel: 91 miles

Gators (6 - 7) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (31 - 10)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
UCF Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	UCF vs Boise State	-6.5	67.0	W 36 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/11	UCF vs Bethune-Cookman	-46.0	67.0	W 63 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/17	UCF at Louisville	-7.0	67.5	L 35 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	UCF at Navy	-15.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/9	UCF vs East Carolina	-10.0	65.0	W 20 - 16	U	N
Sat 10/16	UCF at Cincinnati	+21.5	56.0	L 21 - 56	O	N
Fri 10/22	UCF vs Memphis	-1.5	63.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/30	UCF at Temple	-12.0	52.0	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/6	UCF vs Tulane	-13.5	57.0	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/13	UCF at SMU	+7.0	61.5	L 28 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/20	UCF vs UConn	-30.0	56.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Fri 11/26	UCF vs South Florida	-17.0	62.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Thu 12/23	UCF vs Florida	+7.0	56.0	W 29 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Florida's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-23.5	51.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Florida at South Florida	-29.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/18	Florida vs Alabama	+14.0	59.5	L 29 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Florida vs Tennessee	-19.0	65.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Florida at Kentucky	-7.5	56.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/9	Florida vs Vanderbilt	-39.0	60.5	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Florida at LSU	-12.5	61.0	L 42 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Florida vs Georgia	+14.0	50.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/6	Florida at South Carolina	-20.5	52.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/13	Florida vs Samford	-36.0	68.5	W 70 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/20	Florida at Missouri	-9.5	69.0	L 23 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/27	Florida vs Florida State	-4.0	58.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/23	Florida vs UCF	-7.0	56.0	L 17 - 29	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	.33	49%	24.3	52%	3.19	211	46%	352	4.43	.21	46%	23.6	46%	47%	4.24	75	1	2.2
FLA	.32	50%	21.6	45%	3.19	131	54%	379	4.51	.24	46%	24	48%	43%	4.04	46.4	1.6	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	10	24.3	12.8	48.7%	4.43	1	28	563	211	352	4.8	49%	51%	52%	46%	14%	.33
FLA Defense	12	24	18.7	45.8%	4.04	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	48%	43%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	10	23.6	34.6	46.1%	4.24	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	47%	18%	.21
FLA Offense	12	21.6	29	50.3%	4.51	1.6	26	510	131	379	4.3	41%	59%	45%	54%	15%	.32

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	10	27:30	28.1	49%	55%	9.2	75	1	2.2	7.1	2.6	0	29.3
Florida	12	31:02	26.3	50%	58%	5.5	46.4	1.6	1.3	6	2.8	1	28.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	10	49%	52%	44.4	210.7	4.8	23	.18	3.19	86%	8%	0.83
FLA Defense	12	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.21	75%	10%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	10	51%	46%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.84	64%	12%	0.82
FLA Offense	12	41%	45%	30.6	131.3	4.3	12	.13	3.19	77%	8%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	10	51%	46%	24.4	40.8	352.1	8.6	14.4	32	4	.47	1.8	29%	38%	.61	6%	2.3
FLA Defense	12	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.28	1.6	29%	35%	.39	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	10	49%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.39	1.7	32%	36%	.4	6%	2.1
FLA Offense	12	59%	54%	26.8	39.4	378.6	9.6	14.2	46	10	.46	1.6	28%	42%	.51	8%	2

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: NR
UCF's Offense Rating: NR
UCF's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UCF's 2021 Expected Record: -
UCF's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #62
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #40

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: Florida: 5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.8 Florida: 11.0

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 5.5 NR
Florida's Offense Rating: NR
Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #29
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #22
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida 27
UCF 20

Projected Total Points: 47

Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Florida	24	UCF	13	UCF -1	Florida	62.0	Under
2021	12/23	Florida	17	UCF	29	Florida -7.0	UCF	56.0	Under
2006	09/09	Florida	42	UCF	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	2	1	0 Overs
UCF	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

UCF Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Gasparilla Bowl	UCF vs Florida	+7.0	56.0	W 29 - 17
2020	Raton Bowl	UCF vs BYU	+6.0	80.0	L 23 - 49
2019	Gasparilla Bowl	UCF vs Marshall	-16.0	60.0	W 48 - 25
2018	Fiesta Bowl	UCF vs LSU	+7.5	57.5	L 32 - 40
2017	Peach Bowl	UCF vs Auburn	+9.5	67.0	W 34 - 27
2016	Cure Bowl	UCF vs Arkansas State	+6.5	51.0	L 13 - 31

Florida Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Gasparilla Bowl	Florida vs UCF	-7.0	56.0	L 17 - 29
2020	Cotton Bowl	Florida vs Oklahoma	-3.0	72.0	L 20 - 55
2019	Orange Bowl	Florida vs Virginia	-16.0	55.5	W 36 - 28
2018	Peach Bowl	Florida vs Michigan	+4.0	51.0	W 41 - 15
2016	Outback Bowl	Florida vs Iowa	-2.0	41.0	W 30 - 3
2015	Citrus Bowl	Florida vs Michigan	+4.0		L 7 - 41

(#) UCF at (#) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	FLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#62	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#61	#89
OffenseOff	#69	#73
DefenseDef	#39	#90
Spec TeamsST	#131	#84
TalentTal	#49	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

UCF Injury Report

Florida Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	FLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#69	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#60	#39
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#47	#61
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#88	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#6	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#73	#39
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#40
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#3	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#113

Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#23
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#75
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Down to Average P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Florida -7.0 (56.0)
UCF won at Florida this year (29-17)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat UCF in 2024 (24-13)

UCF's OC G. J. Kinne (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FLA's OC Dan Mullen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD