Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee - 2021 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -12.5 (47.0)
Middle Tennessee 35 - Southern Miss: 10 (Conference USA)

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (17 - 33 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USM coming off BYE
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ MTSU -10)
Projected Score: USM: 21 - MTSU: 34 (55)
MTSU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
USM Travel: 356 miles

Blue Raiders (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (95 - 94)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+2.0	56.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/11	Southern Miss vs Grambling	-23.0	47.5	W 37 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Southern Miss vs Troy	+11.0	49.0	L 9 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/25	Southern Miss at Alabama	+45.0	57.5	L 14 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/2	Southern Miss at Rice	+1.5	45.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/9	Southern Miss vs UTEP	+1.0	46.5	L 13 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/16	Southern Miss vs UAB	+17.0	43.0	L 0 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee	+12.5	47.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/6	Southern Miss vs North Texas	+5.5	49.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/13	Southern Miss at UTSA	+32.5	54.0	L 17 - 27	U	Y
Fri 11/19	Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech	+15.0	47.5	W 35 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Southern Miss vs Florida International	-14.5	45.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth	-8.5	58.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech	+20.0	55.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/18	Middle Tennessee at UTSA	+11.5	60.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Fri 9/24	Middle Tennessee at Charlotte	+2.5	55.5	L 39 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/2	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+11.0	66.0	W 34 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+20.0	59.0	L 13 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/22	Middle Tennessee at UConn	-14.0	54.0	W 44 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss	-12.5	47.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+17.5	66.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/13	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	54.0	W 50 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion	-3.0	48.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/27	Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic	+3.5	49.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/17	Middle Tennessee vs Toledo	+10.0	50.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.02	35%	17.7	35%	2.82	121	38%	146	2.53	.24	42%	27.9	42%	41%	3.11	62.5	2.6	1.9
MTSU	.14	38%	29.8	39%	3.03	124	38%	238	4.08	.16	42%	25.7	47%	39%	3.65	56.6	1.6	2.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	#132 ()	35% (130)		40% (108)	2.59 (126)	109	30% (133)	175	2.75 (133)	#125 (.3)	44% (97)		45% (89)	43% (93)	4.17 (104)	48.3	2.4	0.8
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	12	17.7	17	35.5%	2.53	2.6	16	266	121	146	3.1	52%	46%	35%	38%	25%	.02
MTSU Defense	13	25.7	17.4	42%	3.65	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	47%	39%	28%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	12	27.9	33.2	41.6%	3.11	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	41%	19%	.24
MTSU Offense	13	29.8	37.2	38.3%	4.08	1.6	20	362	124	238	3.5	43%	56%	39%	38%	26%	.14

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	12	30:52	15.9	29%	41%	8.2	62.5	2.6	1.9	5.7	1.9	4	29.1
Middle Tennessee	13	30:13	19.8	31%	48%	6.6	56.6	1.6	2.5	6.8	2.5	5	31.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	12	52%	35%	38.8	120.8	3.1	8	-.07	2.82	67%	18%	1.02
MTSU Defense	13	42%	47%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.42	74%	16%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	12	53%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.27	81%	12%	1.05
MTSU Offense	13	43%	39%	35.2	123.7	3.5	15	.07	3.03	60%	17%	1.07

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	12	46%	38%	13.3	23.9	145.5	6.1	10.9	14	17	.2	1.6	37%	25%	.12	7%	2.1
MTSU Defense	13	56%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.27	1.6	34%	34%	.26	11%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	12	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.32	1.9	32%	32%	.39	7%	2.2
MTSU Offense	13	56%	38%	22.8	35.6	238.5	6.7	10.5	28	13	.23	1.6	33%	28%	.3	9%	2.2

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Southern Miss's 2021 Expected Record: -
Southern Miss's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #117
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #129
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #89

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: Middle Tennessee: 0.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -14.2 Middle Tennessee: -4.0

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: 0.5 NR
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Expected Record: -
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #90
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #69

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

Southern Miss's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 34
Southern Miss 21

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Middle Tennessee 37
Southern Miss 22

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Middle Tennessee 32
Southern Miss 20

Total Points: 52

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.2
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.4

Middle Tennessee's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	10/30	Middle Tennessee	35	Southern Miss	10	Middle Tennessee -12.5	Middle Tennessee	47.0	Under
2014	10/04	Middle Tennessee	37	Southern Miss	31	Middle Tennessee -16.5	Southern Miss	0
2013	11/23	Southern Miss	21	Middle Tennessee	42	Middle Tennessee -20.5	Middle Tennessee	0
2009	12/20	Middle Tennessee	42	Southern Miss	32

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	4	2	0 Overs
Southern Miss	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#) USM at (#) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USM	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#117	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#101
OffenseOff	#135	#116
DefenseDef	#46	#53
Spec TeamsST	#133	#124
TalentTal	#85	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Southern Miss Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#135	#53
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#129	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#106	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#42

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#130	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	USM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#46
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#128	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#38

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#82
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#81	#72
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 54° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Middle Tennessee -12.5 (47.0)
Middle Tennessee won vs Southern Miss this year (35-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USM's OC Cayden Cochran (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MTSU's OC Brent Dearmon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD