Middle Tennessee at Liberty - 2021 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Saturday, October 9th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Liberty -20 (59.0)
Liberty 41 - Middle Tennessee: 13

 
Blue Raiders (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (95 - 94)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (24 - 32 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LIB is playing their 6th straight game
MTSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -8.5  (SP+ LIB -12)
Projected Score: MTSU: 22 - LIB: 34 (56)
LIB Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
MTSU Travel: 412 miles, 1 hrs behind
Flames (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (21 - 6)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (38 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth-8.558.5W 50 - 15OY
Sat 9/11 Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech+20.055.0L 14 - 35UN
Sat 9/18 Middle Tennessee at UTSA+11.560.0L 13 - 27UN
Fri 9/24 Middle Tennessee at Charlotte+2.555.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 10/2 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+11.066.0W 34 - 28UY
Sat 10/9 Middle Tennessee at Liberty+20.059.0L 13 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/22 Middle Tennessee at UConn-14.054.0W 44 - 13OY
Sat 10/30 Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss-12.547.0W 35 - 10UY
Sat 11/6 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+17.566.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 11/13 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-10.554.0W 50 - 10OY
Sat 11/20 Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion-3.048.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/27 Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic+3.549.5W 27 - 17UY
Fri 12/17 Middle Tennessee vs Toledo+10.050.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Liberty's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Liberty vs Campbell-35.065.0W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/11 Liberty at Troy-3.062.5W 21 - 13UY
Sat 9/18 Liberty vs Old Dominion-26.553.5W 45 - 17OY
Fri 9/24 Liberty at Syracuse-6.554.0L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/2 Liberty at UAB+3.049.0W 36 - 12UY
Sat 10/9 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-20.059.0W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/16 Liberty at UL Monroe-32.557.0L 28 - 31ON
Sat 10/23 Liberty at North Texas-21.061.0W 35 - 26UN
Sat 10/30 Liberty vs Massachusetts-35.556.0W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/6 Liberty at Ole Miss+7.566.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20 Liberty vs Louisiana-4.053.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 11/27 Liberty vs Army-3.051.5L 16 - 31UN
Sat 12/18 Liberty vs Eastern Michigan-9.558.5W 56 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU.1438%29.839%3.0312438%2384.08.1642%25.747%39%3.6556.61.62.5
LIB.2945%33.652%3.7218139%2554.57.1341%21.544%38%3.6266.51.70.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1329.824.438.3%4.081.6203621242383.543%56%39%38%26%.14
LIB Defense1321.521.241.1%3.620.8 - - - - - 56%43%44%38%18%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1325.731.942%3.652.5 - - - - - 42%56%47%39%28%.16
LIB Offense1333.637.745.4%4.571.7234361812554.648%51%52%39%17%.29

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1330:1319.831%48%6.656.61.62.56.82.5531.4
Liberty1330:1922.643%43%7.166.51.70.87.52.8228.5
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1343%39%35.2123.73.515.073.0360%17%1.07
LIB Defense1356%44% - - - - .133.1775%12%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1342%47% - - - - .133.4274%16%0.97
LIB Offense1348%52%39.1180.84.626.353.7279%11%1.11

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1356%38%22.835.6238.56.710.52813.231.633%28%.39%2.2
LIB Defense1343%38% - - - - - - 9.161.531%29%.266%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1356%39% - - - - - - 17.271.634%34%.2611%1.9
LIB Offense1351%39%17.429.32558.714.73315.251.730%32%.316%2.1

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Expected Record: -
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0  #90
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #69

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee:    Liberty: 6.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -4.0   Liberty: 8.4




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.7 NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Liberty's 2021 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #49
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #47
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #38

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.4
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.9

Middle Tennessee's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 34
Middle Tennessee 22

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Liberty 36
Middle Tennessee 20

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 32
Middle Tennessee 24

Total Points: 56
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 33.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Liberty's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Middle Tennessee17Liberty37Liberty -12.5Liberty54.5Under
202310/17Liberty42Middle Tennessee35Liberty -16Middle Tennessee56.5Over
202110/09Liberty41Middle Tennessee13Liberty -20Liberty59.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty321 Overs
Middle Tennessee012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#) MTSU at (#) LIB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSULIB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #90 #49
Perf GradeGrade #101 #28
OffenseOff #116 #27
DefenseDef #53 #26
Spec TeamsST #124 #44
TalentTal #80 #135
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Middle Tennessee on Offense
CategoryCat
MTSU OffLIB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #116 #26
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #91 #38
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Middle Tennessee Run Game
CategoryCat
MTSU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #128 #48
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #20
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
CategoryCat
MTSU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #95 #61
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #81 #6
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Liberty on Offense
CategoryCatLIB OffMTSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #53
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #47 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Liberty Run Game
CategoryCat
LIB OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #19 #41
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #55 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #42
Liberty Pass Game
CategoryCatLIB OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #35 #24
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #52 #125
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 68° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.004
Rematch from Week 6
Liberty -20.0 (59.0)
Liberty won vs Middle Tennessee this year (41-13)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee last year (37-17)
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (42-35)

  
MTSU's OC Brent Dearmon (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

LIB's OC Kent Austin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD