Liberty at North Texas - 2021 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames at North Texas Mean Green

Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -21 (61.0)
Liberty 35 - North Texas: 26

Flames (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (21 - 6)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB 2nd straight Road Game
UNT 2nd straight Home Game
LIB is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ LIB -15)
Projected Score: LIB: 23 - UNT: 36 (59)
LIB Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
LIB Travel: 1052 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Mean Green (6 - 7) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Seth Littrell (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
UNT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Liberty vs Campbell	-35.0	65.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Liberty at Troy	-3.0	62.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-26.5	53.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Fri 9/24	Liberty at Syracuse	-6.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/2	Liberty at UAB	+3.0	49.0	W 36 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-20.0	59.0	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Liberty at UL Monroe	-32.5	57.0	L 28 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/23	Liberty at North Texas	-21.0	61.0	W 35 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/30	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-35.5	56.0	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Liberty at Ole Miss	+7.5	66.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Liberty vs Louisiana	-4.0	53.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/27	Liberty vs Army	-3.0	51.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 12/18	Liberty vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	58.5	W 56 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

North Texas's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	North Texas vs Northwestern State	-20.0	66.0	W 44 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/11	North Texas at SMU	+22.5	75.5	L 12 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/18	North Texas vs UAB	+12.5	58.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/25	North Texas at Louisiana Tech	+9.5	65.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	North Texas at Missouri	+18.5	69.0	L 35 - 48	O	Y
Fri 10/15	North Texas vs Marshall	+11.0	66.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/23	North Texas vs Liberty	+21.0	61.0	L 26 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/30	North Texas at Rice	+1.5	55.0	W 30 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/6	North Texas at Southern Miss	-5.5	49.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/13	North Texas vs UTEP	-1.0	55.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/20	North Texas at Florida International	-10.0	57.0	W 49 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/27	North Texas vs UTSA	+8.5	60.0	W 45 - 23	O	Y
Thu 12/23	North Texas vs Miami (OH)	+2.0	56.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.32	50%	25.6	53%	3.27	253	47%	230	3.73	.17	42%	26.5	46%	37%	2.98	55.4	1.5	1.5
UNT	.29	46%	45.1	49%	3.27	230	42%	283	4.03	.33	47%	26.5	48%	44%	4.67	53.6	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	11	25.6	19.7	50.4%	3.73	1.5	25	482	253	230	5.8	58%	42%	53%	47%	16%	.32
UNT Defense	10	26.5	22	46.6%	4.67	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	48%	44%	13%	.33

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	11	26.5	25.7	41.6%	2.98	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	46%	37%	17%	.17
UNT Offense	10	45.1	45.7	46.1%	4.03	1.5	25	513	230	283	5.2	54%	46%	49%	42%	12%	.29

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	11	32:18	24.8	48%	76%	5.9	55.4	1.5	1.5	5.4	2.4	1	30.8
North Texas	10	25:00	24.8	47%	46%	6.8	53.6	1.5	0.9	5.1	2.2	0	28.3

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	11	58%	53%	43.8	252.6	5.8	27	.28	3.27	75%	11%	1.04
UNT Defense	10	55%	48%	-	-	-	-	.31	3.42	80%	8%	1.19

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	11	50%	46%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.19	70%	11%	0.96
UNT Offense	10	54%	49%	44.3	230.2	5.2	18	.21	3.27	70%	6%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	11	42%	47%	17.5	27.8	229.6	8.3	13.2	25	7	.38	1.6	27%	38%	.56	5%	2.2
UNT Defense	10	45%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.34	1.6	29%	32%	.43	4%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.2	1.6	34%	29%	.26	6%	1.8
UNT Offense	10	46%	42%	18.5	33.6	283	8.4	15.3	28	9	.38	1.9	31%	37%	.49	6%	2.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Liberty's 2021 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #49
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #47
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #38

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: North Texas: -0.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 8.4 North Texas: -6.5

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -0.75 NR
North Texas's Offense Rating: NR
North Texas's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Texas's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Texas's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.5 #95
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #100
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 36
Liberty 23

Projected Total Points: 59

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	10/23	North Texas	26	Liberty	35	Liberty -21	North Texas	61.0	Push
2018	09/22	Liberty	7	North Texas	47	North Texas -10.5	North Texas	67.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Texas	1	2	0 Overs
Liberty	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0

(#) LIB at (#) UNT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	UNT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#49	#95
Perf GradeGrade	#28	#83
OffenseOff	#27	#104
DefenseDef	#26	#36
Spec TeamsST	#44	#25
TalentTal	#135	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Liberty Injury Report

North Texas Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UNT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#47	#87
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#19	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#1
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Texas on Offense


CategoryCat	UNT Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#26
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#100	#38
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Texas Run Game


CategoryCat	UNT Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#32	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#20

North Texas Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNT Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#94	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#117	#6
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Liberty 21.0 (61.0)
Liberty won at North Texas this year (35-26)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

LIB's OC Kent Austin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNT's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Phil Bennett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD