Massachusetts at Liberty - 2021 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Liberty Flames

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -35.5 (56.0)
Liberty 62 - Massachusetts: 17

Minutemen (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Walt Bell (1 - 18)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS 2nd straight Road Game
LIB is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -21.5 (SP+ LIB -38)
Projected Score: UMASS: 19 - LIB: 35 (54)
LIB Win prob: 98% | Cover: 46%
UMASS Travel: 494 miles

Flames (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (21 - 6)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Massachusetts at Pittsburgh	+38.0	56.0	L 7 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/11	Massachusetts vs Boston College	+39.0	57.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	+22.0	56.5	L 28 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina	+36.0	66.0	L 3 - 53	U	N
Sat 10/2	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+26.5	56.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/9	Massachusetts vs UConn	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Massachusetts at Florida State	+35.0	59.0	L 3 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/30	Massachusetts at Liberty	+35.5	56.0	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/6	Massachusetts vs Rhode Island	-2.5	55.5	L 22 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/13	Massachusetts vs Maine	+6.0	58.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/20	Massachusetts at Army	+37.5	56.0	L 17 - 33	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	58.5	L 27 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Liberty's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Liberty vs Campbell	-35.0	65.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Liberty at Troy	-3.0	62.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-26.5	53.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Fri 9/24	Liberty at Syracuse	-6.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/2	Liberty at UAB	+3.0	49.0	W 36 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-20.0	59.0	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Liberty at UL Monroe	-32.5	57.0	L 28 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/23	Liberty at North Texas	-21.0	61.0	W 35 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/30	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-35.5	56.0	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Liberty at Ole Miss	+7.5	66.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Liberty vs Louisiana	-4.0	53.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/27	Liberty vs Army	-3.0	51.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 12/18	Liberty vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	58.5	W 56 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	-.11	25%	11.1	21%	2.18	67	31%	122	0.56	.39	52%	38.6	52%	51%	3.79	54	1.8	0.5
LIB	.32	50%	25.6	53%	3.27	253	47%	230	3.73	.17	42%	26.5	46%	37%	2.98	55.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	4	11.1	9.3	25.5%	0.56	1.8	11	189	67	122	2.3	51%	49%	21%	31%	21%	-.11
LIB Defense	11	26.5	27.3	41.6%	2.98	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	46%	37%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	4	38.6	42.5	51.5%	3.79	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	52%	51%	17%	.39
LIB Offense	11	25.6	31.5	50.4%	3.73	1.5	25	482	253	230	5.8	58%	42%	53%	47%	16%	.32

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	4	26:45	10.5	26%	44%	5.3	54	1.8	0.5	7.8	2.3	0	25.1
Liberty	11	32:18	24.8	48%	76%	5.9	55.4	1.5	1.5	5.4	2.4	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	4	51%	21%	29.3	67.3	2.3	0	-.22	2.18	38%	15%	1.06
LIB Defense	11	50%	46%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.19	70%	11%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	4	53%	52%	-	-	-	-	.32	3.04	88%	13%	1.15
LIB Offense	11	58%	53%	43.8	252.6	5.8	27	.28	3.27	75%	11%	1.04

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	4	49%	31%	13.5	25	121.5	4.9	9	1	5	.01	1.5	38%	21%	.11	6%	1.9
LIB Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.2	1.6	34%	29%	.26	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	4	47%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.46	1.6	31%	39%	.41	5%	1.7
LIB Offense	11	42%	47%	17.5	27.8	229.6	8.3	13.2	25	7	.38	1.6	27%	38%	.56	5%	2.2

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Massachusetts's 2021 Expected Record: -
Massachusetts's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -29.3 #131
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #127
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.9 #131

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: Liberty: 6.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -29.3 Liberty: 8.4

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.7 NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Liberty's 2021 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #49
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #47
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #38

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2021 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 35
Massachusetts 19

Projected Total Points: 54

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Massachusetts	34	Liberty	35	Liberty -17	Massachusetts	53.0	Over
2023	11/18	Liberty	49	Massachusetts	25	Liberty -26.5	Massachusetts	64.5	Over
2022	10/08	Massachusetts	24	Liberty	42	Liberty -22.5	Massachusetts	45.5	Over
2021	10/30	Liberty	62	Massachusetts	17	Liberty -35.5	Liberty	56.0	Over
2020	11/27	Liberty	45	Massachusetts	0	Liberty -35	Liberty	57.5	Under
2019	11/02	Massachusetts	21	Liberty	63	Liberty -23.5	Liberty	72.0	Over
2018	11/03	Massachusetts	62	Liberty	59	Liberty -1.5	Massachusetts	66.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	6	3	6 Overs
Massachusetts	1	4	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	5 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	2 - 5	1 - 3	1 - 2

(#) UMASS at (#) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#131	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#28
OffenseOff	#133	#27
DefenseDef	#134	#26
Spec TeamsST	#132	#44
TalentTal	#126	#135
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Massachusetts Injury Report

Liberty Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#26
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#127	#38
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#63	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#20

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#136	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#104	#6
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#134
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#47	#131
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#19	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#117

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#121
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'21 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 57° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Liberty -35.5 (56.0)
Liberty won vs Massachusetts this year (62-17)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2024 (35-34)
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2023 (49-25)

UMASS's OC Angelo Mirando (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Tommy Restivo (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LIB's OC Kent Austin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD