Nevada at Air Force - 2018 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 29th 2018 (4:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -3.5 (64.0)
Nevada 28 - Air Force: 25 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
'18 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV 2nd straight Road Game
NEV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ NEV -1.5)
Projected Score: NEV: 23 - AFA: 29 (52)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs behind

Falcons (5 - 7) (6 - 4 - 2)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
'18 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/31	Nevada vs Portland State	-28.0	71.0	W 72 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/8	Nevada at Vanderbilt	+10.0	59.5	L 10 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/15	Nevada vs Oregon State	-4.0	67.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/22	Nevada at Toledo	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/29	Nevada at Air Force	+3.5	64.0	W 28 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/6	Nevada vs Fresno State	+15.0	59.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/13	Nevada vs Boise State	+15.0	59.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/20	Nevada at Hawai'i	+3.0	67.0	W 40 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/27	Nevada vs San Diego State	-1.0	45.5	W 28 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/10	Nevada vs Colorado State	-14.0	61.5	W 49 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/17	Nevada at San José State	-14.5	59.5	W 21 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/24	Nevada at UNLV	-14.0	60.5	L 29 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/29	Nevada vs Arkansas State	-1.5	56.5	W 16 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Air Force's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Air Force vs Stony Brook	-14.5	57.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/8	Air Force at Florida Atlantic	+8.0	61.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/22	Air Force at Utah State	+10.0	59.5	L 32 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/29	Air Force vs Nevada	-3.5	64.0	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/6	Air Force vs Navy	+2.5	47.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Fri 10/12	Air Force at San Diego State	+11.0	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Fri 10/19	Air Force at UNLV	-9.5	55.5	W 41 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/27	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.0	58.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/3	Air Force at Army	+4.5	41.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/10	Air Force vs New Mexico	-14.0	55.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/17	Air Force at Wyoming	+3.0	42.5	L 27 - 35	O	N
Thu 11/22	Air Force vs Colorado State	-14.5	64.0	W 27 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2017)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	.16	41%	17.6	43%	2.95	127	39%	270	3.99	.24	50%	27.5	47%	52%	3.31	43.3	1.8	1.6
AFA	.2	48%	29.8	50%	3.11	307	37%	110	4.36	.25	43%	30.3	43%	40%	3.99	38.3	1.7	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2017

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	41.4%	3.99	1.8	20	398	127	270	4.2	43%	56%	43%	39%	15%	.16
AFA Defense	12	30.3	27.8	43.1%	3.99	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	63%	35%	43%	40%	12%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	49.6%	3.31	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	59%	40%	47%	52%	15%	.24
AFA Offense	12	29.8	27.5	48%	4.36	1.7	24	417	307	110	4.8	81%	18%	50%	37%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2017

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	25:44	19.8	40%	39%	4.8	43.3	1.8	1.6	6.8	1.9	1	31.5
Air Force	12	33:27	24.2	49%	62%	4	38.3	1.7	0.8	3.2	0.6	1	26.6

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	43%	43%	30.2	127.2	4.2	12	.05	2.95	70%	9%	0.82
AFA Defense	12	63%	43%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.03	80%	8%	1.22

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	59%	47%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.96	71%	11%	0.92
AFA Offense	12	81%	50%	63.8	306.9	4.8	38	.21	3.11	79%	11%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	56%	39%	22.5	37.6	270.4	7.2	12	30	15	.27	1.8	31%	32%	.37	6%	2
AFA Defense	12	35%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.34	1.9	32%	33%	.33	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	40%	52%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.44	1.6	29%	44%	.53	4%	1.9
AFA Offense	12	18%	37%	5.8	11.8	110.1	9.3	19.1	10	6	.2	2	26%	36%	.32	2%	1.8

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Nevada's 2018 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.5 #77
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #82
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #63

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: Air Force: 1.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -0.5 Air Force: -1.8

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 1.6 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2018 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #85
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #67
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2018 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 29
Nevada 23

Projected Total Points: 52

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2018 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Nevada	19	Air Force	22	Nevada -3	Air Force	44.5	Under
2022	09/23	Air Force	48	Nevada	20	Air Force -24	Air Force	47.0	Over
2021	11/19	Nevada	39	Air Force	41	Air Force -1.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2018	09/29	Air Force	25	Nevada	28	Air Force -3.5	Nevada	64.0	Under
2017	10/20	Nevada	42	Air Force	45	Air Force -6.5	Nevada	65.0	Over
2014	11/15	Air Force	45	Nevada	38	Nevada -2.5	Air Force	0
2013	09/28	Nevada	45	Air Force	42	Nevada -7	Air Force	0
2012	10/26	Air Force	48	Nevada	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	6	5	3 Overs
Nevada	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	3 - 4	1 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 4	4 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 1

(#) NEV at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#77	#85
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#87	#129
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Nevada Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#82	#90
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#67	#63
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Average G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force -3.5 (64.0)
Nevada won at Air Force this year (28-25)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Nevada in 2024 (22-19)

NEV's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD