Arkansas State at Texas State - 2018 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 24th 2018 (4:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -13 (48.5)
Arkansas State 33 - Texas State: 7 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'18 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST is playing their 8th straight game
ARST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ ARST -17.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 26 - TXST: 31 (57)
ARST Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
ARST Travel: 589 miles

Bobcats (3 - 9) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'18 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-32.5	56.0	W 48 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/8	Arkansas State at Alabama	+36.5	63.0	L 7 - 57	O	N
Sat 9/15	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+2.0	71.0	W 29 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/22	Arkansas State vs UNLV	-8.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/29	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	-3.0	53.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/9	Arkansas State vs App State	+10.5	59.5	L 9 - 35	U	N
Thu 10/18	Arkansas State vs Georgia State	-13.5	55.5	W 51 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/27	Arkansas State at Louisiana	-3.0	69.0	L 43 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/3	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	-14.0	61.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/10	Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina	-6.5	61.5	W 44 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/17	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	68.0	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/24	Arkansas State at Texas State	-13.0	48.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/29	Arkansas State vs Nevada	+1.5	56.5	L 13 - 16	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Texas State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Texas State at Rutgers	+16.5	48.0	L 7 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/8	Texas State vs Texas Southern	-34.0	52.5	W 36 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/15	Texas State at South Alabama	+10.0	49.0	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/22	Texas State at UTSA	+7.0	49.0	L 21 - 25	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/6	Texas State vs Louisiana	+3.0	57.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Thu 10/11	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+17.0	52.0	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 10/20	Texas State at UL Monroe	+10.5	60.0	L 14 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/27	Texas State vs New Mexico State	-1.0	56.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/3	Texas State at Georgia State	+7.0	53.0	W 40 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/10	Texas State vs App State	+18.5	47.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/17	Texas State at Troy	+23.0	47.5	L 7 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/24	Texas State vs Arkansas State	+13.0	48.5	L 7 - 33	U	N

Important Stats (2017)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	46%	25.2	42%	2.69	153	48%	342	3.22	.08	38%	27.4	39%	36%	2.94	69	2.1	2.2
TXST	.06	38%	36.5	38%	2.46	134	37%	206	2.2	.21	46%	29	43%	47%	3.65	38.2	2	0.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2017

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	46.2%	3.22	2.1	27	495	153	342	4	42%	56%	42%	48%	16%	.17
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	46.2%	3.65	0.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	43%	47%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	37.8%	2.94	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	39%	36%	21%	.08
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	37.8%	2.2	2	19	340	134	206	3.4	52%	47%	38%	37%	23%	.06

Additional Stats 2017

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	28:51	26.7	44%	33%	7.8	69	2.1	2.2	8.2	2.9	2	36.6
Texas State	12	29:31	19.3	34%	23%	4.4	38.2	2	0.6	4.7	1.8	0	27.5

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	42%	38.6	152.6	4	17	.05	2.69	69%	9%	0.93
TXST Defense	12	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.93	60%	9%	0.8

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	49%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.39	71%	14%	0.98
TXST Offense	12	52%	38%	40	134.1	3.4	11	.02	2.46	82%	17%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	56%	48%	26.4	42.7	342.2	8	13	38	17	.28	1.5	30%	36%	.28	7%	1.8
TXST Defense	12	49%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.39	1.6	29%	33%	.32	4%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	50%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.17	1.8	35%	29%	.22	7%	2.1
TXST Offense	12	47%	37%	17.9	31.2	205.7	6.6	11.5	15	10	.15	1.6	35%	30%	.14	7%	1.7

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #72
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #57
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #62

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Texas State: -5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: 1.2 Texas State: -16.4

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.7 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #114
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.9 #126
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #73

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2018 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 31
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 57

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2018 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Arkansas State	31	Texas State	30	Texas State -14	Arkansas State	63.5	Under
2024	10/12	Texas State	41	Arkansas State	9	Texas State -13.5	Texas State	66.0	Under
2023	11/18	Arkansas State	77	Texas State	31	Texas State -3.5	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2022	11/19	Texas State	16	Arkansas State	13	Texas State -6	Arkansas State	50.0	Under
2021	11/27	Arkansas State	22	Texas State	24	Arkansas State -2	Texas State	62.0	Under
2020	11/21	Texas State	47	Arkansas State	45	Arkansas State -4.5	Texas State	69.5	Over
2019	10/26	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	14	Arkansas State -11.5	Arkansas State	60.5	Under
2018	11/24	Texas State	7	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State -13	Arkansas State	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Arkansas State	30	Texas State	12	Arkansas State -26.5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2016	12/03	Texas State	14	Arkansas State	36	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	54.0	Under
2015	12/05	Arkansas State	55	Texas State	17	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Over
2014	11/20	Texas State	45	Arkansas State	27	Arkansas State -6.5	Texas State	58.0	Over
2013	11/16	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	21	Arkansas State -6.5	Arkansas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	5	5	4 Overs
Arkansas State	8	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	8 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 4	3 - 4

(#) ARST at (#) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#72	#114
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#86	#125
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#73
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#126	#62
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Arkansas State 13.0 (48.5)
Arkansas State won at Texas State this year (33-7)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Texas State last year (31-30)
Texas State beat Arkansas State in 2024 (41-9)
Arkansas State beat Texas State in 2023 (77-31)

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TXST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD