New Mexico State at Arkansas State - 2016 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 12th 2016 (3:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -20.5 (63.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 41 - New Mexico State: 22 (Sun Belt)

Aggies (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 39 (22 - 48 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -10.5 (SP+ ARST -16)
Projected Score: NMSU: 19 - ARST: 38 (57)
ARST Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
NMSU Travel: 951 miles, 1 hrs behind

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	New Mexico State at UTEP	+3.5	58.0	L 22 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+11.5	62.0	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico State at Kentucky	+21.5	65.5	L 42 - 62	O	Y
Sat 9/24	New Mexico State at Troy	+17.5	66.0	L 6 - 52	U	N
Sat 10/1	New Mexico State vs Louisiana	+8.0	67.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	New Mexico State at Idaho	+3.0	67.5	L 23 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/22	New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern	+14.0	64.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/29	New Mexico State at Texas A&M	+43.5	71.0	L 10 - 52	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	New Mexico State at Arkansas State	+20.5	63.0	L 22 - 41	U	Y
Sat 11/19	New Mexico State vs Texas State	-6.5	66.0	W 50 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/26	New Mexico State vs App State	+17.0	60.0	L 7 - 37	U	N
Sat 12/3	New Mexico State at South Alabama	+12.0	57.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Arkansas State vs Toledo	-2.5	64.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Auburn	+13.0	51.0	L 14 - 51	O	N
Fri 9/16	Arkansas State at Utah State	+8.0	56.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-15.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+5.5	53.5	W 27 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	-6.0	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-17.0	55.0	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/3	Arkansas State at Georgia State	-2.0	48.0	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs New Mexico State	-20.5	63.0	W 41 - 22	U	N
Thu 11/17	Arkansas State at Troy	+8.5	53.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State at Louisiana	-6.5	50.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/3	Arkansas State at Texas State	-21.5	54.0	W 36 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Arkansas State at UCF	-6.5	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.11	41%	24.8	46%	3.28	171	34%	244	3.17	.21	46%	38.8	45%	44%	3.87	50	1.8	1.8
ARST	.09	39%	27.3	39%	2.31	137	38%	242	3.04	.02	36%	21.5	36%	33%	2.99	64.2	1.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	24.8	21.9	40.6%	3.17	1.8	22	415	171	244	4.5	46%	52%	46%	34%	19%	.11
ARST Defense	13	21.5	20.7	36.1%	2.99	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	36%	33%	22%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	38.8	47.9	45.5%	3.87	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	57%	41%	45%	44%	15%	.21
ARST Offense	13	27.3	28.2	39.2%	3.04	1.3	19	379	137	242	3.5	52%	46%	39%	38%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	26:34	22.2	34%	54%	6.3	50	1.8	1.8	6.1	0.9	1	28.8
Arkansas State	13	29:01	18.6	29%	58%	8.2	64.2	1.3	1.6	10.2	3.3	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	46%	46%	37.8	170.9	4.5	13	.16	3.28	70%	11%	1.01
ARST Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.05	2.5	63%	16%	0.78

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	57%	45%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.08	74%	11%	1.04
ARST Offense	13	52%	39%	39.8	137.2	3.5	19	-.04	2.31	67%	13%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	52%	34%	21.1	38.3	243.8	6.4	11.6	22	15	.07	1.7	36%	34%	.32	8%	1.8
ARST Defense	13	49%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.11	1.7	38%	30%	.26	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.7	30%	38%	.33	5%	1.8
ARST Offense	13	46%	38%	17.8	30.9	242.2	7.8	13.6	21	9	.28	1.8	36%	30%	.25	6%	2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2016 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.2 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #102
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Arkansas State: 1.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -17.2 Arkansas State: -1.2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: 1.9 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #71
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #112
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 24.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.9
Defense: 38.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 47.9

New Mexico State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 38
New Mexico State 19

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 39
New Mexico State 17

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 36
New Mexico State 22

Total Points: 58

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.7

Arkansas State's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 11
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2017	10/28	New Mexico State	21	Arkansas State	37	Arkansas State -3.5	Arkansas State	71.0	Under
2016	11/12	Arkansas State	41	New Mexico State	22	Arkansas State -20.5	New Mexico State	63.0	Push
2015	11/28	New Mexico State	28	Arkansas State	52	Arkansas State -17	Arkansas State	71.0	Over
2014	11/29	Arkansas State	68	New Mexico State	35	Arkansas State -23.5	Arkansas State	0
2003	11/01	New Mexico State	24	Arkansas State	28
2002	10/26	Arkansas State	21	New Mexico State	26
2001	11/10	New Mexico State	28	Arkansas State	17
2000	10/20	Arkansas State	29	New Mexico State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	5	3	1 Overs
New Mexico State	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 5	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 3	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1

(#) NMSU at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#122	#71
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#125	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#102	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#112	#120
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 61° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Arkansas State -20.5 (63.0)
Arkansas State won vs New Mexico State this year (41-22)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NMSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD