Arkansas State at Auburn - 2016 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Auburn Tigers

Saturday, September 10th 2016 (7:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -13 (51.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Auburn 51 - Arkansas State: 14

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AUB 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -11 (SP+ AUB -17)
Projected Score: ARST: 21 - AUB: 26 (47)
AUB Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
ARST Travel: 371 miles

Tigers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Arkansas State vs Toledo	-2.5	64.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Auburn	+13.0	51.0	L 14 - 51	O	N
Fri 9/16	Arkansas State at Utah State	+8.0	56.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-15.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+5.5	53.5	W 27 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	-6.0	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-17.0	55.0	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/3	Arkansas State at Georgia State	-2.0	48.0	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs New Mexico State	-20.5	63.0	W 41 - 22	U	N
Thu 11/17	Arkansas State at Troy	+8.5	53.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State at Louisiana	-6.5	50.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/3	Arkansas State at Texas State	-21.5	54.0	W 36 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Arkansas State at UCF	-6.5	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Auburn's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Auburn vs Clemson	+7.5	62.0	L 13 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Auburn vs Arkansas State	-13.0	51.0	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Auburn vs Texas A&M	-4.0	55.5	L 16 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/24	Auburn vs LSU	+4.0	46.5	W 18 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Auburn vs UL Monroe	-34.0	57.5	W 58 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Auburn at Mississippi State	+1.5	55.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Auburn vs Arkansas	-17.0	53.0	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Auburn at Ole Miss	-2.0	65.5	W 40 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Auburn vs Vanderbilt	-26.0	47.0	W 23 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/12	Auburn at Georgia	-8.0	51.0	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/19	Auburn vs Alabama A&M	-52.0
Sat 11/26	Auburn at Alabama	+20.0	47.0	L 12 - 30	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Auburn vs Oklahoma	+5.5	67.0	L 19 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.16	45%	25.2	46%	2.79	231	42%	207	3.58	.13	38%	27.4	39%	36%	3.79	76.6	2	2.7
AUB	.17	46%	26.8	48%	3.04	196	40%	174	3.77	.14	47%	20.7	47%	44%	3.01	46.4	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	45%	3.58	2	22	438	231	207	5	59%	40%	46%	42%	2%	.16
AUB Defense	13	20.7	16.4	46.6%	3.01	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	47%	44%	2%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	37.9%	3.79	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	39%	36%	3%	.13
AUB Offense	13	26.8	26.4	46.1%	3.77	1.3	20	370	196	174	4.4	62%	36%	48%	40%	3%	.17

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	30:26	22.3	39%	50%	8.3	76.6	2	2.7	0	0	9	33.4
Auburn	13	28:21	19.8	41%	60%	4.8	46.4	1.3	1.5	0	0	1	29.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	59%	46%	46.8	231.3	5	35	.15	2.79	69%	0%	1.04
AUB Defense	13	51%	47%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.24	70%	0%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	42%	39%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.19	69%	0%	1.16
AUB Offense	13	62%	48%	45.2	196.4	4.4	28	.12	3.04	81%	0%	0.79

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	40%	42%	15.9	28.1	207.2	7.4	13	23	15	.19	1.6	31%	35%	.27	2%	1.7
AUB Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.3	30%	36%	.22	2%	1.5

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	56%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	27	.17	1.8	37%	29%	.27	3%	2
AUB Offense	13	36%	40%	13.8	23.5	173.6	7.4	12.6	11	12	.28	1.7	29%	37%	.4	3%	1.8

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #71
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #112
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Auburn: 10.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -1.2 Auburn: 15.3

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 10.15 NR
Auburn's Offense Rating: NR
Auburn's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Auburn's 2016 Expected Record: -
Auburn's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #21
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #49
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 11
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 26
Arkansas State 21

Projected Total Points: 47

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2016	09/10	Auburn	51	Arkansas State	14	Auburn -13	Auburn	51.0	Over
2013	09/07	Auburn	38	Arkansas State	9	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	0
2010	09/04	Auburn	52	Arkansas State	26
2006	11/04	Auburn	27	Arkansas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	4	2	1 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#) ARST at (#) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	AUB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#71	#21
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#76	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Auburn Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	AUB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#112	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#49	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Auburn -13.0 (51.0)
Auburn won vs Arkansas State this year (51-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AUB's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD