Toledo at Arkansas State - 2016 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Friday, September 2nd 2016 (9:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -2.5 (64.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Toledo 31 - Arkansas State: 10

 
Rockets (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 38 - 26 (40 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -4.5  (SP+ TOL -13.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 29 - ARST: 34 (63)
ARST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 552 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Toledo at Arkansas State+2.564.0W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/10 Toledo vs Maine-30.0
Sat 9/17 Toledo vs Fresno State-20.057.5W 52 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/30 Toledo at BYU+4.551.0L 53 - 55OY
Sat 10/8 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-17.565.5W 35 - 20UN
Sat 10/15 Toledo vs Bowling Green-24.071.0W 42 - 35ON
Sat 10/22 Toledo vs Central Michigan-10.061.5W 31 - 17UY
Thu 10/27 Toledo vs Ohio-17.557.0L 26 - 31UN
Wed 11/2 Toledo at Akron-8.072.0W 48 - 17UY
Wed 11/9 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-7.569.5W 31 - 24UN
Wed 11/16 Toledo vs Ball State-19.068.5W 37 - 19UN
Fri 11/25 Toledo at Western Michigan+9.571.5L 35 - 55ON
Sat 12/17 Toledo vs App State-2.560.0L 28 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Arkansas State vs Toledo-2.564.0L 10 - 31UN
Sat 9/10 Arkansas State at Auburn+13.051.0L 14 - 51ON
Fri 9/16 Arkansas State at Utah State+8.056.0L 20 - 34UN
Sat 9/24 Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-15.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+5.553.5W 27 - 26UY
Sat 10/15 Arkansas State vs South Alabama-6.054.5W 17 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29 Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-17.055.0W 51 - 10OY
Thu 11/3 Arkansas State at Georgia State-2.048.0W 31 - 16UY
Sat 11/12 Arkansas State vs New Mexico State-20.563.0W 41 - 22UN
Thu 11/17 Arkansas State at Troy+8.553.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 11/26 Arkansas State at Louisiana-6.550.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 12/3 Arkansas State at Texas State-21.554.0W 36 - 14UY
Sat 12/17 Arkansas State at UCF-6.551.0W 31 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.3349%3845%3.2619550%3234.08.1639%25.738%39%3.3960.21.10.8
ARST.0939%27.339%2.3113738%2423.04.0236%21.536%33%2.9964.21.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense133840.448.6%4.081.124518195323551%47%45%50%14%.33
ARST Defense1321.520.736.1%2.991.6 - - - - - 49%49%36%33%22%.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1325.731.439.3%3.390.8 - - - - - 50%48%38%39%16%.16
ARST Offense1327.328.239.2%3.041.3193791372423.552%46%39%38%19%.09

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1330:1024.251%40%760.21.10.85.91.6228.7
Arkansas State1329:0118.629%58%8.264.21.31.610.23.3329.3
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1351%45%39.4195517.113.2679%8%0.8
ARST Defense1349%36% - - - - -.052.563%16%0.78
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1350%38% - - - - .092.7665%10%1.15
ARST Offense1352%39%39.8137.23.519-.042.3167%13%0.88

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1347%50%22.432.5322.89.914.4469.591.830%45%.725%2.1
ARST Defense1349%33% - - - - - - 11.111.738%30%.266%1.8
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1348%39% - - - - - - 6.251.736%35%.316%1.8
ARST Offense1346%38%17.830.9242.27.813.6219.281.836%30%.256%2

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2016 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.3  #26
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.6  #10
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo:    Arkansas State: 1.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 12.3   Arkansas State: -1.2




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: 1.9 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #71
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9  #112
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.4
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.4

Toledo's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 34
Toledo 29

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 40
Toledo 27

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 30
Arkansas State 28

Total Points: 58
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.7

Arkansas State's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 11
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201609/02Arkansas State10Toledo31Arkansas State -2.5Toledo64.0Under
201509/26Toledo37Arkansas State7Toledo -10Toledo58.0Under
201401/04Arkansas State44Toledo63Toledo -3.5Toledo70.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State001 Overs
Toledo332 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 12 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#) TOL at (#) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLARST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #26 #71
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #77 #76
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffARST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #10 #26
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffARST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Arkansas State on Offense
CategoryCatARST OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #112 #54
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
CategoryCatARST OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 71° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State -2.5 (64.0)
Toledo won at Arkansas State this year (31-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TOL's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

ARST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD