New Mexico State at Troy - 2016 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 24th 2016 (7:00 PM EDT)
Troy -17.5 (66.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Troy 52 - New Mexico State: 6 (Sun Belt)

Aggies (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
TROY is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -11.5 (SP+ TROY -18)
Projected Score: NMSU: 22 - TROY: 29 (51)
TROY Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
NMSU Travel: 1216 miles, 1 hrs behind

Trojans (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	New Mexico State at UTEP	+3.5	58.0	L 22 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+11.5	62.0	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico State at Kentucky	+21.5	65.5	L 42 - 62	O	Y
Sat 9/24	New Mexico State at Troy	+17.5	66.0	L 6 - 52	U	N
Sat 10/1	New Mexico State vs Louisiana	+8.0	67.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	New Mexico State at Idaho	+3.0	67.5	L 23 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/22	New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern	+14.0	64.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/29	New Mexico State at Texas A&M	+43.5	71.0	L 10 - 52	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	New Mexico State at Arkansas State	+20.5	63.0	L 22 - 41	U	Y
Sat 11/19	New Mexico State vs Texas State	-6.5	66.0	W 50 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/26	New Mexico State vs App State	+17.0	60.0	L 7 - 37	U	N
Sat 12/3	New Mexico State at South Alabama	+12.0	57.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Troy's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Troy vs Austin Peay	-37.0
Sat 9/10	Troy at Clemson	+34.0	62.0	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Troy at Southern Miss	+11.5	61.0	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Troy vs New Mexico State	-17.5	66.0	W 52 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Troy at Idaho	-13.5	57.5	W 34 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Troy vs Georgia State	-16.5	54.0	W 31 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/20	Troy at South Alabama	-9.0	49.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Troy vs Massachusetts	-23.0	56.5	W 52 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Troy vs App State	-1.5	49.0	W 28 - 24	O	Y
Thu 11/17	Troy vs Arkansas State	-8.5	53.5	L 3 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/26	Troy at Texas State	-26.5	57.5	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/3	Troy at Georgia Southern	-9.0	53.0	L 24 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/23	Troy vs Ohio	-5.0	50.0	W 28 - 23	O	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.17	37%	21.6	42%	2.93	181	32%	253	3.04	.31	48%	27.6	45%	50%	4.06	55.5	1.8	1.8
TROY	.16	43%	23.5	40%	2.43	119	43%	241	2.93	.19	46%	23.9	46%	43%	3.35	57.6	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	20	37.3%	3.04	1.8	20	433	181	253	4.9	45%	53%	42%	32%	2%	.17
TROY Defense	12	23.9	22.8	45.5%	3.35	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	59%	39%	46%	43%	1%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	37.5	48.5%	4.06	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	45%	50%	2%	.31
TROY Offense	12	23.5	25.3	43.1%	2.93	1.6	19	360	119	241	3.8	41%	56%	40%	43%	3%	.16

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	28:03	20.1	36%	40%	6.4	55.5	1.8	1.8	0	0	1	28.2
Troy	12	26:17	18.8	35%	37%	6.7	57.6	1.6	1.6	0	0	2	30.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	45%	42%	36.9	180.5	4.9	16	.26	2.93	64%	0%	1.24
TROY Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.02	72%	0%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.08	71%	0%	1.22
TROY Offense	12	41%	40%	31.8	119.1	3.8	14	.02	2.43	62%	0%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	53%	32%	20.1	37.8	252.8	6.7	12.6	26	14	.11	1.9	36%	27%	.31	2%	2.3
TROY Defense	12	39%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.31	1.7	31%	29%	.24	1%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	47%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.4	1.5	29%	40%	.49	2%	1.9
TROY Offense	12	56%	43%	20.8	34.8	240.8	6.9	11.6	21	11	.29	1.5	32%	30%	.3	3%	1.8

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2016 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.2 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #102
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Troy: 3.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -17.2 Troy: 1.1

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 3.05 NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Troy's 2016 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #63
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #87
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #43

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 29
New Mexico State 22

Projected Total Points: 51

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2017	09/16	New Mexico State	24	Troy	27	Troy -9.5	New Mexico State	60.5	Under
2016	09/24	Troy	52	New Mexico State	6	Troy -17.5	Troy	66.0	Under
2015	10/24	New Mexico State	7	Troy	52	Troy -3.5	Troy	58.5	Over
2014	10/11	Troy	41	New Mexico State	24	Troy -7.5	Troy	0
2004	09/18	New Mexico State	22	Troy	18

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	4	3	1 Overs
New Mexico State	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2

(#) NMSU at (#) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#122	#63
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#125	#100
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Troy Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#102	#43
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#87	#120
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Troy -17.5 (66.0)
Troy won vs New Mexico State this year (52-6)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NMSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TROY's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD