South Alabama at Arkansas State - 2016 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 15th 2016 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -6 (54.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 17 - South Alabama: 7 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (6 - 7) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (23 - 29 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 3rd straight Home Game
USA coming off BYE
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ ARST -8)
Projected Score: USA: 26 - ARST: 27 (53)
ARST Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
USA Travel: 387 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	South Alabama at Mississippi State	+34.0	52.0	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/10	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	+11.5	57.5	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/17	South Alabama at Louisiana	+3.5	53.0	L 23 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/24	South Alabama vs Nicholls	-16.5
Sat 10/1	South Alabama vs San Diego State	+17.5	49.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	South Alabama at Arkansas State	+6.0	54.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Thu 10/20	South Alabama vs Troy	+9.0	49.0	L 21 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/29	South Alabama vs Georgia State	-3.5	47.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/5	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-13.5	49.5	L 35 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	South Alabama vs Presbyterian	-31.0
Sat 11/26	South Alabama at Idaho	+2.5	53.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/3	South Alabama vs New Mexico State	-12.0	57.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/30	South Alabama vs Air Force	+14.0	54.0	L 21 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Arkansas State vs Toledo	-2.5	64.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Auburn	+13.0	51.0	L 14 - 51	O	N
Fri 9/16	Arkansas State at Utah State	+8.0	56.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-15.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+5.5	53.5	W 27 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	-6.0	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-17.0	55.0	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/3	Arkansas State at Georgia State	-2.0	48.0	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs New Mexico State	-20.5	63.0	W 41 - 22	U	N
Thu 11/17	Arkansas State at Troy	+8.5	53.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State at Louisiana	-6.5	50.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/3	Arkansas State at Texas State	-21.5	54.0	W 36 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Arkansas State at UCF	-6.5	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.13	43%	25.4	45%	2.94	145	40%	244	3.24	.15	44%	27	44%	41%	3.05	62.9	1.7	1.5
ARST	.09	39%	27.3	39%	2.31	137	38%	242	3.04	.02	36%	21.5	36%	33%	2.99	64.2	1.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)		53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)		39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	25.4	23.4	43.1%	3.24	1.7	19	388	145	244	4	50%	49%	45%	40%	18%	.13
ARST Defense	13	21.5	20.7	36.1%	2.99	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	36%	33%	22%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	27	29	44.2%	3.05	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	61%	37%	44%	41%	17%	.15
ARST Offense	13	27.3	28.2	39.2%	3.04	1.3	19	379	137	242	3.5	52%	46%	39%	38%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	29:30	19.3	39%	45%	7.5	62.9	1.7	1.5	6.8	2	2	29.9
Arkansas State	13	29:01	18.6	29%	58%	8.2	64.2	1.3	1.6	10.2	3.3	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	50%	45%	36.1	144.5	4	25	.06	2.94	78%	12%	0.77
ARST Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.05	2.5	63%	16%	0.78

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	61%	44%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.86	67%	12%	0.98
ARST Offense	13	52%	39%	39.8	137.2	3.5	19	-.04	2.31	67%	13%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	49%	40%	17.9	31.9	243.8	7.6	13.6	15	14	.23	1.8	32%	33%	.12	7%	1.8
ARST Defense	13	49%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.11	1.7	38%	30%	.26	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	37%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.23	1.7	30%	36%	.37	5%	1.9
ARST Offense	13	46%	38%	17.8	30.9	242.2	7.8	13.6	21	9	.28	1.8	36%	30%	.25	6%	2

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Alabama's 2016 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #90
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #92

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: Arkansas State: 1.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -9.4 Arkansas State: -1.2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: 1.9 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #71
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #112
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 25.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

South Alabama's 2016 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 27
South Alabama 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
South Alabama 28
Arkansas State 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 28
South Alabama 23

Total Points: 51

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.7

Arkansas State's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 11
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	15	South Alabama -8.5	Arkansas State	57.5	Under
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	8	8	3 Overs
South Alabama	6	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#) USA at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#100	#71
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#102	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Alabama Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#112	#92
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 79° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Arkansas State -6.0 (54.5)
Arkansas State won vs South Alabama this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2022 (31-3)

USA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD