Arkansas State at Troy - 2016 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo   Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans  Troy logo
Thursday, November 17th 2016 (9:30 PM EST)
Troy -8.5 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 35 - Troy: 3  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TROY 3rd straight Home Game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -3.5  (SP+ TROY -2)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - TROY: 25 (48)
TROY Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
ARST Travel: 389 miles
Trojans (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Arkansas State vs Toledo-2.564.0L 10 - 31UN
Sat 9/10 Arkansas State at Auburn+13.051.0L 14 - 51ON
Fri 9/16 Arkansas State at Utah State+8.056.0L 20 - 34UN
Sat 9/24 Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-15.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+5.553.5W 27 - 26UY
Sat 10/15 Arkansas State vs South Alabama-6.054.5W 17 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29 Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-17.055.0W 51 - 10OY
Thu 11/3 Arkansas State at Georgia State-2.048.0W 31 - 16UY
Sat 11/12 Arkansas State vs New Mexico State-20.563.0W 41 - 22UN
Thu 11/17 Arkansas State at Troy+8.553.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 11/26 Arkansas State at Louisiana-6.550.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 12/3 Arkansas State at Texas State-21.554.0W 36 - 14UY
Sat 12/17 Arkansas State at UCF-6.551.0W 31 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Troy's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Troy vs Austin Peay-37.0
Sat 9/10 Troy at Clemson+34.062.0L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/17 Troy at Southern Miss+11.561.0W 37 - 31OY
Sat 9/24 Troy vs New Mexico State-17.566.0W 52 - 6UY
Sat 10/1 Troy at Idaho-13.557.5W 34 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15 Troy vs Georgia State-16.554.0W 31 - 21UN
Thu 10/20 Troy at South Alabama-9.049.0W 28 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5 Troy vs Massachusetts-23.056.5W 52 - 31ON
Sat 11/12 Troy vs App State-1.549.0W 28 - 24OY
Thu 11/17 Troy vs Arkansas State-8.553.5L 3 - 35UN
Sat 11/26 Troy at Texas State-26.557.5W 40 - 7UY
Sat 12/3 Troy at Georgia Southern-9.053.0L 24 - 28UN
Fri 12/23 Troy vs Ohio-5.050.0W 28 - 23ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Important Stats (2015)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST.1645%25.246%2.7923142%2073.58.1338%27.439%36%3.7976.622.7
TROY.1643%23.540%2.4311943%2412.93.1946%23.946%43%3.3557.61.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22145%3.58222438231207559%40%46%42%2%.16
TROY Defense1223.922.845.5%3.351.6 - - - - - 59%39%46%43%1%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.837.9%3.792.7 - - - - - 42%56%39%36%3%.13
TROY Offense1223.525.343.1%2.931.6193601192413.841%56%40%43%3%.16

Additional Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1330:2622.339%50%8.376.622.700933.4
Troy1226:1718.835%37%6.757.61.61.600230.3
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1359%46%46.8231.3535.152.7969%0%1.04
TROY Defense1259%46% - - - - .133.0272%0%0.85
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1342%39% - - - - .082.1969%0%1.16
TROY Offense1241%40%31.8119.13.814.022.4362%0%0.9

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1340%42%15.928.1207.27.4132315.191.631%35%.272%1.7
TROY Defense1239%43% - - - - - - 6.311.731%29%.241%1.8
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1356%36% - - - - - - 27.171.837%29%.273%2
TROY Offense1256%43%20.834.8240.86.911.62111.291.532%30%.33%1.8

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #71
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9  #112
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State:    Troy: 3.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -1.2   Troy: 1.1




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 3.05 NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Troy's 2016 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #63
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #87
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #43

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 11
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 25
Arkansas State 23

Projected Total Points: 48
Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Troy10Arkansas State23Troy -7.5Arkansas State52.5Under
202410/26Arkansas State34Troy31Arkansas State -8.5Troy50.0Over
202310/07Troy37Arkansas State3Troy -15.5Troy52.0Under
202211/26Arkansas State19Troy48Troy -13.5Troy43.5Over
202010/31Arkansas State10Troy38Arkansas State -3.5Troy0
201909/28Troy43Arkansas State50Troy -7Arkansas State59.5Over
201712/02Arkansas State25Troy32Arkansas State -1Troy60.0Under
201611/17Troy3Arkansas State35Troy -8.5Arkansas State53.5Under
201309/12Arkansas State41Troy34Arkansas State -10Troy0
201211/17Troy34Arkansas State41
201112/03Arkansas State45Troy14
201009/25Troy35Arkansas State28
200909/26Arkansas State27Troy30
200812/06Troy35Arkansas State9
200710/27Arkansas State0Troy27
200611/18Troy26Arkansas State33
200511/12Arkansas State9Troy3
200410/16Arkansas State13Troy9
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy863 Overs
Arkansas State1034 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 101 - 81 - 70 - 1
Road Teams10 - 88 - 11 - 07 - 1

(#) ARST at (#) TROY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTTROY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #71 #63
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #76 #100
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Arkansas State on Offense
CategoryCat
ARST OffTROY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #112 #43
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffTROY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffTROY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Troy on Offense
CategoryCatTROY OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #87 #26
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Troy Run Game
CategoryCat
TROY OffARST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Troy Pass Game
CategoryCatTROY OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Troy -8.5 (53.5)
Arkansas State won at Troy this year (35-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (23-10)
Arkansas State beat Troy in 2024 (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

  
ARST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TROY's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD