Northwestern at Michigan State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, October 15th 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Michigan State -6.5 (41.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Northwestern 54 - Michigan State: 40 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 22 (34 - 28 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
MSU 2nd straight Home Game
NW coming off BYE
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ MSU -5)
Projected Score: NW: 29 - MSU: 22 (51)
MSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
NW Travel: 170 miles, 1 hrs behind

Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (25 - 25 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Northwestern vs Western Michigan	-6.5	53.5	L 21 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/10	Northwestern vs Illinois State	-12.5
Sat 9/17	Northwestern vs Duke	-4.0	44.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Northwestern vs Nebraska	+6.5	48.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/1	Northwestern at Iowa	+12.0	44.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Northwestern at Michigan State	+6.5	41.0	W 54 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Northwestern vs Indiana	-2.5	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Northwestern at Ohio State	+24.0	53.5	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+6.5	41.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/12	Northwestern at Purdue	-10.5	58.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Northwestern at Minnesota	+2.0	46.0	L 12 - 29	U	N
Sat 11/26	Northwestern vs Illinois	-15.0	48.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Wed 12/28	Northwestern vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	63.0	W 31 - 24	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Michigan State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Michigan State vs Furman	-45.0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/17	Michigan State at Notre Dame	+7.0	49.0	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Michigan State vs Wisconsin	-6.0	42.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/1	Michigan State at Indiana	-8.0	52.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/8	Michigan State vs BYU	-5.0	48.5	L 14 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/15	Michigan State vs Northwestern	-6.5	41.0	L 40 - 54	O	N
Sat 10/22	Michigan State at Maryland	-2.5	49.0	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/29	Michigan State vs Michigan	+21.0	49.5	L 23 - 32	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Michigan State at Illinois	-7.0	47.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-15.5	53.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	50.0	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Michigan State at Penn State	+13.5	53.5	L 12 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.12	40%	26	37%	2.66	153	43%	245	3.28	.09	42%	22.2	42%	41%	2.78	29.9	1.2	1.9
MSU	.16	42%	24.1	42%	2.78	173	39%	222	3.07	.15	43%	27.8	41%	44%	3.76	60.3	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	13	26	33.8	40.3%	3.28	1.2	22	398	153	245	4	46%	53%	37%	43%	18%	.12
MSU Defense	12	27.8	25.3	43.1%	3.76	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	41%	44%	13%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	13	22.2	28.2	42.4%	2.78	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.09
MSU Offense	12	24.1	25.1	42.1%	3.07	1.5	21	395	173	222	4.4	53%	45%	42%	39%	16%	.16

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	13	28:38	21.6	39%	53%	3.6	29.9	1.2	1.9	5.9	2.1	1	28.6
Michigan State	12	31:40	20.5	39%	48%	6.4	60.3	1.5	1.1	4.7	0.9	2	28

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	13	46%	37%	38.5	153.2	4	22	.05	2.66	76%	11%	1.02
MSU Defense	12	55%	41%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.5	72%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	13	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.68	77%	9%	0.9
MSU Offense	12	53%	42%	39.3	172.7	4.4	14	.03	2.78	76%	10%	0.83

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	13	53%	43%	21.7	37.2	245.1	6.6	11.3	22	9	.19	1.5	34%	30%	.25	8%	2
MSU Defense	12	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.26	1.6	32%	37%	.32	5%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	13	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.15	1.4	33%	28%	.1	7%	1.8
MSU Offense	12	45%	39%	17.6	30.8	222.3	7.2	12.6	19	11	.31	1.7	36%	32%	.26	6%	1.7

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2016 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9 #61
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Michigan State: 6.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 2.9 Michigan State: 7.4

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.2 NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #50
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #55
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #39

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.2

Northwestern's 2016 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 29
Michigan State 22

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 29
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 28
Michigan State 25

Total Points: 53

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.1
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Michigan State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	09/03	Northwestern	21	Michigan State	38	Northwestern -3	Michigan State	45.5	Over
2020	11/28	Michigan State	29	Northwestern	20	Northwestern -13.5	Michigan State	40.0	Over
2019	09/21	Northwestern	10	Michigan State	31	Michigan State -7.5	Michigan State	35.0	Over
2018	10/06	Michigan State	19	Northwestern	29	Michigan State -10.5	Northwestern	43.0	Over
2017	10/28	Northwestern	39	Michigan State	31	Michigan State -2	Northwestern	41.5	Over
2016	10/15	Michigan State	40	Northwestern	54	Michigan State -6.5	Northwestern	41.0	Over
2013	11/23	Northwestern	6	Michigan State	30	Michigan State -7	Michigan State	0
2012	11/17	Michigan State	20	Northwestern	23
2011	11/26	Northwestern	17	Michigan State	31
2010	10/23	Northwestern	27	Michigan State	35
2009	10/17	Michigan State	24	Northwestern	14
2008	10/11	Northwestern	20	Michigan State	37
2007	10/06	Michigan State	41	Northwestern	48
2006	10/21	Northwestern	38	Michigan State	41
2005	10/22	Michigan State	14	Northwestern	49
2002	09/28	Michigan State	39	Northwestern	24
2001	09/29	Northwestern	27	Michigan State	26
2000	09/29	Michigan State	17	Northwestern	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	10	4	6 Overs
Northwestern	8	3	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 13	2 - 5	0 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	13 - 5	5 - 2	2 - 2	3 - 0

(#) NW at (#) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#61	#50
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#45	#22
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#75	#39
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#55	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 67° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Michigan State -6.5 (41.0)
Northwestern won at Michigan State this year (54-40)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NW's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD