Louisville at Virginia - 2016 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo (#19)Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers(#16)Virginia logo
Saturday, October 29th 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -27 (69.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Louisville 32 - Virginia: 25  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 43 - 24 (42 - 28 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UVA 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: -11  (SP+ LOU -26.5)
Projected Score: LOU: 40 - UVA: 28 (68)
LOU Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
LOU Travel: 394 miles
Cavaliers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (26 - 36 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1 Louisville vs Charlotte-39.558.5W 70 - 14OY
Fri 9/9 Louisville at Syracuse-13.069.0W 62 - 28OY
Sat 9/17 Louisville vs Florida State+4.565.0W 63 - 20OY
Sat 9/24 Louisville at Marshall-23.069.0W 59 - 28OY
Sat 10/1 Louisville at Clemson+3.564.0L 36 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/14 Louisville vs Duke-27.569.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/22 Louisville vs NC State-20.065.0W 54 - 13OY
Sat 10/29 Louisville at Virginia-27.069.5W 32 - 25UN
Sat 11/5 Louisville at Boston College-24.552.0W 52 - 7OY
Sat 11/12 Louisville vs Wake Forest-33.056.5W 44 - 12UN
Thu 11/17 Louisville at Houston-16.068.0L 10 - 36UN
Sat 11/26 Louisville vs Kentucky-26.070.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 12/31 Louisville vs LSU+3.059.0L 9 - 29UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Virginia's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Virginia vs Richmond-14.0
Sat 9/10 Virginia at Oregon+20.571.5L 26 - 44UY
Sat 9/17 Virginia at UConn+6.547.5L 10 - 13UY
Sat 9/24 Virginia vs Central Michigan+2.051.5W 49 - 35OY
Sat 10/1 Virginia at Duke+5.060.5W 34 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15 Virginia vs Pittsburgh+5.060.5L 31 - 45ON
Sat 10/22 Virginia vs North Carolina+9.068.5L 14 - 35UN
Sat 10/29 Virginia vs Louisville+27.069.5L 25 - 32UY
Sat 11/5 Virginia at Wake Forest+2.545.0L 20 - 27ON
Sat 11/12 Virginia vs Miami+11.055.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 11/19 Virginia at Georgia Tech+10.554.0L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/26 Virginia at Virginia Tech+18.553.5L 10 - 52ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU.3350%42.553%3.5224244%2914.36.0636%23.834%36%3.2870.72.51.9
UVA.0441%22.543%2.7511438%2393.21.2345%33.840%48%3.4557.92.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1342.541.849.5%4.362.525533242291647%51%53%44%17%.33
UVA Defense1233.836.344.8%3.451.1 - - - - - 53%45%40%48%16%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1323.827.736.4%3.281.9 - - - - - 49%49%34%36%19%.06
UVA Offense1222.525.540.6%3.212.2203531142393.640%60%43%38%17%.04

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1328:4624.841%69%7.870.72.51.97.52.3232.2
Virginia1229:0019.834%52%6.357.92.21.15.52031.2
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1347%53%40.4242.2637.383.5276%12%1.16
UVA Defense1253%40% - - - - .072.8673%10%0.96
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1349%34% - - - - -.072.5465%13%0.86
UVA Offense1240%43%32113.63.613.062.7568%10%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1351%44%19.133.5290.58.715.23210.331.632%38%.445%1.8
UVA Defense1245%48% - - - - - - 9.441.732%34%.426%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1349%36% - - - - - - 15.191.837%29%.236%1.9
UVA Offense1260%38%22.240.6239.35.910.82316.031.434%26%.057%1.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Louisville's 2016 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.9  #9
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8  #8
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #15

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville:    Virginia: 0.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 22.9   Virginia: -3.8




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 0.6 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2016 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8  #83
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #88
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5  #67

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 41.8
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.7

Louisville's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 40
Virginia 28

Total Points: 68

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 41
Virginia 31

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 39
Virginia 25

Total Points: 64
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 36.3

Virginia's 2016 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Louisville27Virginia30Louisville -6.5Virginia59.5Under
202410/12Virginia20Louisville24Louisville -7Virginia54.0Under
202311/09Louisville31Virginia24Louisville -20.5Virginia49.5Over
202210/08Virginia17Louisville34Virginia -1.5Louisville47.5Over
202110/09Louisville33Virginia34Louisville -2.5Virginia69.5Under
202011/14Virginia31Louisville17Virginia -5.5Virginia64.5Under
201910/26Louisville28Virginia21Virginia -4.5Louisville51.0Under
201809/22Virginia27Louisville3Virginia -4.5Virginia51.5Under
201711/11Louisville38Virginia21Louisville -14Louisville66.5Under
201610/29Virginia25Louisville32Louisville -27Virginia69.5Under
201511/14Louisville38Virginia31Louisville -8.5Virginia48.0Over
201409/13Virginia23Louisville21Louisville -10Virginia0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia593 Overs
Louisville738 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 57 - 53 - 54 - 0
Road Teams5 - 75 - 70 - 45 - 3

(#) LOU at (#) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #9 #83
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #32 #42
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Louisville on Offense
CategoryCat
LOU OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #8 #67
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Louisville Run Game
CategoryCat
LOU OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Louisville Pass Game
CategoryCat
LOU OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Virginia on Offense
CategoryCatUVA OffLOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #88 #15
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
UVA OffLOU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCatUVA OffLOU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 67° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Louisville 27.0 (69.5)
Louisville won at Virginia this year (32-25)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Virginia last year (24-20)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2023 (31-24)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2022 (34-17)

  
LOU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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LOU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UVA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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UVA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD