Utah at West Virginia Week 5 College Football Matchup Utah at West Virginia Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Utah✈ 1,675 mi+2 hr TZ
Away
48 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah
37
UTAH -13.5
West Virginia
15
P&R Line Utah -21.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Utah -13.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Utah has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Utah entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Utah wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Utah wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Utah -13.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Utah · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah 2025 Schedule
Utah's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah at UCLA-6.5W43–1050.5W43–10OY
Sat 9/6Utah vs Cal Poly-42.5W63–953.5W63–9OY
Sat 9/13Utah at Wyoming-24.5W31–647.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/20Utah vs Texas Tech-3.5L10–3458.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/27Utah at West Virginia-13.5W48–1446.5W48–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah vs Arizona State-9.5W42–1044.5W42–10OY
Sat 10/18Utah at BYU-4.0L21–2449.5L21–24UN
Sat 10/25Utah vs Colorado-14.5W53–750.5W53–7OY
Sat 11/1Utah vs Cincinnati-11.5W45–1457.5W45–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Utah at Baylor-9.5W55–2860.5W55–28OY
Sat 11/22Utah vs Kansas State-18.5W51–4752.5W51–47ON
Fri 11/28Utah at Kansas-10.5W31–2159.5W31–21UN
Wed 12/31Utah vs Nebraska-13.5W44–2251.5W44–22OY
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.0W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6West Virginia at Ohio-3.5L10–1758.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/13West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/20West Virginia at Kansas+12.5L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 9/27West Virginia vs Utah+13.5L14–4846.5L14–48ON
Fri 10/3West Virginia at BYU+19.5L24–3846.5L24–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18West Virginia at UCF+6.5L13–4546.5L13–45ON
Sat 10/25West Virginia vs TCU+16.5L17–2355.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/1West Virginia at Houston+13.5W45–3548.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/8West Virginia vs Colorado-6.5W29–2251.5W29–22UY
Sat 11/15West Virginia at Arizona State+10.0L23–2546.5L23–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.5L0–4953.5L0–49UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Utah PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah #3
+0.512
West Virginia #118
+0.144
Utah Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah #30
+0.704
West Virginia #99
+0.207
Utah Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah #42
0.169
West Virginia #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah #2
+8.914
West Virginia #86
+6.462
Utah Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah #8
+0.895
West Virginia #121
+0.752
Utah Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah #78
71.3
West Virginia #89
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah
7.3
West Virginia
1.2
Offense Rating
Utah
18.2
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah
10.8
West Virginia
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah #6
2.00
West Virginia #108
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah #24
0.67
West Virginia #110
2.00
Utah +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah #1
63.6
West Virginia #1
41.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah #9
26.7
West Virginia #127
46.5
Utah +22.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
167–86 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Morgan Scalley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rich Rodriguez Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself