Arizona State at Utah Week 7 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Utah Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Rice-Eccles Stadium Salt Lake City, UT · Turf · 45,807 cap
Arizona State✈ 506 mi+1 hr TZ
10 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
19
Utah
32
P&R Line Utah -13.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Utah -9.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Utah has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Utah entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Utah wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Utah wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Utah -9.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Utah · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Utah Coming off BYE 🛋 Arizona State Coming off BYE
Arizona State 2025 Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.5W38–1952.5W38–19ON
Sat 9/6Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.0L20–2458.5L20–24UN
Sat 9/13Arizona State vs Texas State-18.5W34–1561.5W34–15UY
Sat 9/20Arizona State at Baylor+3.0W27–2460.5W27–24UY
Fri 9/26Arizona State vs TCU-2.5W27–2454.5W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Arizona State at Utah+9.5L10–4244.5L10–42ON
Sat 10/18Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.5W26–2252.5W26–22UY
Sat 10/25Arizona State vs Houston-7.0L16–2446.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Arizona State at Iowa State+7.5W24–1948.5W24–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.0W25–2346.5W25–23ON
Sat 11/22Arizona State at Colorado-7.0W42–1747.5W42–17OY
Fri 11/28Arizona State vs Arizona+2.0L7–2348.5L7–23UN
Wed 12/31Arizona State vs Duke+4.0L39–4249.5L39–42OY
Utah 2025 Schedule
Utah's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah at UCLA-6.5W43–1050.5W43–10OY
Sat 9/6Utah vs Cal Poly-42.5W63–953.5W63–9OY
Sat 9/13Utah at Wyoming-24.5W31–647.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/20Utah vs Texas Tech-3.5L10–3458.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/27Utah at West Virginia-13.5W48–1446.5W48–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah vs Arizona State-9.5W42–1044.5W42–10OY
Sat 10/18Utah at BYU-4.0L21–2449.5L21–24UN
Sat 10/25Utah vs Colorado-14.5W53–750.5W53–7OY
Sat 11/1Utah vs Cincinnati-11.5W45–1457.5W45–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Utah at Baylor-9.5W55–2860.5W55–28OY
Sat 11/22Utah vs Kansas State-18.5W51–4752.5W51–47ON
Fri 11/28Utah at Kansas-10.5W31–2159.5W31–21UN
Wed 12/31Utah vs Nebraska-13.5W44–2251.5W44–22OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Utah PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #91
+0.210
Utah #3
+0.456
Utah Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #68
+0.258
Utah #30
+0.541
Utah Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #15
0.188
Utah #42
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #103
+6.304
Utah #2
+8.470
Utah Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #99
+0.786
Utah #8
+0.899
Utah Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #106
72.3
Utah #78
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Utah
7.3
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Utah
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Utah
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #32
1.25
Utah #6
2.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #58
0.75
Utah #24
0.50
Utah +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
50.4
Utah #1
68.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #71
31.9
Utah #9
22.4
Utah +18.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Utah
91.2 — 5.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah won by 32
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
167–86 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Morgan Scalley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself