Sat, Nov 1 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Rice-Eccles Stadium
Salt Lake City, UT
·
Turf
·
45,807 cap
Cincinnati✈ 1,446 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah,
while Game Control favors Cincinnati.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Utah wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Utah -11.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Cincinnati 2025 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Cincinnati vs Nebraska | +6.5L17–20 | 52.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Cincinnati vs Bowling Green | -21.5W34–20 | 46.5 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Cincinnati vs Northwestern State | -48.5W70–0 | 55.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Cincinnati at Kansas | +5.5W37–34 | 55.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Cincinnati vs Iowa State | -1.5W38–30 | 55.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Cincinnati vs UCF | -10.0W20–11 | 55.5 | W20–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Cincinnati at Oklahoma State | -23.5W49–17 | 57.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Cincinnati vs Baylor | -3.5W41–20 | 68.5 | W41–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Cincinnati at Utah | +11.5L14–45 | 57.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Cincinnati vs Arizona | -6.5L24–30 | 56.5 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Cincinnati vs BYU | +2.5L14–26 | 56.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Cincinnati at TCU | +3.0L23–45 | 58.5 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Cincinnati vs Navy | +7.5L13–35 | 57.5 | L13–35 | U | N |
Utah 2025 Schedule
Utah's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Utah at UCLA | -6.5W43–10 | 50.5 | W43–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Utah vs Cal Poly | -42.5W63–9 | 53.5 | W63–9 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Utah at Wyoming | -24.5W31–6 | 47.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Utah vs Texas Tech | -3.5L10–34 | 58.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Utah at West Virginia | -13.5W48–14 | 46.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Utah vs Arizona State | -9.5W42–10 | 44.5 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Utah at BYU | -4.0L21–24 | 49.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Utah vs Colorado | -14.5W53–7 | 50.5 | W53–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Utah vs Cincinnati | -11.5W45–14 | 57.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Utah at Baylor | -9.5W55–28 | 60.5 | W55–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Utah vs Kansas State | -18.5W51–47 | 52.5 | W51–47 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Utah at Kansas | -10.5W31–21 | 59.5 | W31–21 | U | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Utah vs Nebraska | -13.5W44–22 | 51.5 | W44–22 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah Edge
Utah +0.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Utah
86.2 — 6.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Utah won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tyson Veidt
Yr 1
#1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
167–86 (66%)
· Yr 21 at school
OC
Jason Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓