Matchup Prediction
Utah
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Utah entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Utah wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Utah wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Utah -14.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado 2025 Schedule
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Colorado vs Georgia Tech | +4.0L20–27 | 55.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Colorado vs Delaware | -23.5W31–7 | 49.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/12 | Colorado at Houston | +4.0L20–36 | 45.5 | L20–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Colorado vs Wyoming | -12.5W37–20 | 45.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Colorado vs BYU | +6.5L21–24 | 48.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Colorado at TCU | +13.5L21–35 | 57.5 | L21–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Colorado vs Iowa State | +3.0W24–17 | 52.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Colorado at Utah | +14.5L7–53 | 50.5 | L7–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Colorado vs Arizona | +4.0L17–52 | 52.5 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Colorado at West Virginia | +6.5L22–29 | 51.5 | L22–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Colorado vs Arizona State | +7.0L17–42 | 47.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Colorado at Kansas State | +16.5L14–24 | 50.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
Utah 2025 Schedule
Utah's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Utah at UCLA | -6.5W43–10 | 50.5 | W43–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Utah vs Cal Poly | -42.5W63–9 | 53.5 | W63–9 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Utah at Wyoming | -24.5W31–6 | 47.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Utah vs Texas Tech | -3.5L10–34 | 58.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Utah at West Virginia | -13.5W48–14 | 46.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Utah vs Arizona State | -9.5W42–10 | 44.5 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Utah at BYU | -4.0L21–24 | 49.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Utah vs Colorado | -14.5W53–7 | 50.5 | W53–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Utah vs Cincinnati | -11.5W45–14 | 57.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Utah at Baylor | -9.5W55–28 | 60.5 | W55–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Utah vs Kansas State | -18.5W51–47 | 52.5 | W51–47 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Utah at Kansas | -10.5W31–21 | 59.5 | W31–21 | U | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Utah vs Nebraska | -13.5W44–22 | 51.5 | W44–22 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah Edge
Utah +1.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Utah Edge
Utah +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Utah
97.3 — 2.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah won by 46
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Utah with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
13–11 (54%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Pat Shurmur
Yr 2
#1
DC
Robert Livingston
Yr 2
#1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
167–86 (66%)
· Yr 21 at school
OC
Jason Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓