Oklahoma State at Arizona Week 6 College Football Matchup Oklahoma State at Arizona Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 4 2025 · Week 6 · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 837 mi-2 hr TZ
13 41
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oklahoma State
16
Arizona
38
P&R Line Arizona -22.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Arizona -21.5 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Arizona has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arizona entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Arizona wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Arizona wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Arizona -21.5
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.0W27–756.5W27–7UN
Sat 9/6Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.5L3–6955.5L3–69ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/19Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.5L12–1954.5L12–19UN
Sat 9/27Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.0L27–4558.5L27–45OY
Sat 10/4Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.5L13–4156.5L13–41UN
Sat 10/11Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.5L17–3947.5L17–39ON
Sat 10/18Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.5L17–4957.5L17–49ON
Sat 10/25Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.5L0–4256.5L0–42UN
Sat 11/1Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5L21–3854.5L21–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.5L6–1450.5L6–14UY
Sat 11/22Oklahoma State at UCF+13.5L14–1747.5L14–17UY
Sat 11/29Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.5L13–2047.5L13–20UY
Arizona 2025 Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.5W40–655.5W40–6UY
Sat 9/6Arizona vs Weber State-31.5W48–356.5W48–3UY
Fri 9/12Arizona vs Kansas State+1.5W23–1755.5W23–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Arizona at Iowa State+4.0L14–3948.5L14–39ON
Sat 10/4Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.5W41–1356.5W41–13UY
Sat 10/11Arizona vs BYU+2.5L27–3346.5L27–33ON
Sat 10/18Arizona at Houston-1.5L28–3147.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Arizona at Colorado-4.0W52–1752.5W52–17OY
Sat 11/8Arizona vs Kansas-5.5W24–2056.5W24–20UN
Sat 11/15Arizona at Cincinnati+6.5W30–2456.5W30–24UY
Sat 11/22Arizona vs Baylor-6.5W41–1761.5W41–17UY
Fri 11/28Arizona at Arizona State-2.0W23–748.5W23–7UY
Fri 1/2Arizona vs SMU+2.5L19–2455.5L19–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Arizona PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oklahoma State #133
+0.111
Arizona #58
+0.467
Arizona Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #128
+0.249
Arizona #73
+0.681
Arizona Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #86
0.149
Arizona #5
0.202
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #125
+6.345
Arizona #79
+7.609
Arizona Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #129
+0.744
Arizona #63
+0.874
Arizona Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #132
74.2
Arizona #4
66.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oklahoma State
4.8
Arizona
9.6
Offense Rating
Oklahoma State
19.7
Arizona
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oklahoma State
14.9
Arizona
11.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oklahoma State #136
0.00
Arizona #28
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #86
2.00
Arizona #55
0.67
Arizona +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oklahoma State #1
30.1
Arizona #1
64.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #129
62.6
Arizona #49
27.2
Arizona +34.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arizona
93.4 — 4.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arizona won by 28
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
169–88 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Doug Meacham Yr 1 #1
DC Todd Grantham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Seth Doege Yr 1 #1
DC Danny Gonzales Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself