Fri, Sep 19 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, OK
·
Turf
·
60,218 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Oklahoma State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -10.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tulsa
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Tulsa 2025 Schedule
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tulsa vs Abilene Christian | -5.0W35–7 | 59.5 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tulsa at New Mexico State | -3.0L14–21 | 52.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Tulsa vs Navy | +14.0L23–42 | 52.5 | L23–42 | O | N |
| Fri 9/19 | Tulsa at Oklahoma State | +10.5W19–12 | 54.5 | W19–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Tulsa vs Tulane | +14.5L14–31 | 52.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Tulsa at Memphis | +21.0L7–45 | 54.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/16 | Tulsa at East Carolina | +16.5L27–41 | 54.5 | L27–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Tulsa vs Temple | +4.5L37–38 | 52.5 | L37–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Tulsa at Florida Atlantic | +4.5L21–40 | 60.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Tulsa vs Oregon State | -1.5W31–14 | 50.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Tulsa at Army | +10.0W26–25 | 43.5 | W26–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tulsa vs UAB | -9.0L24–31 | 56.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Oklahoma State vs UT Martin | -26.0W27–7 | 56.5 | W27–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Oklahoma State at Oregon | +28.5L3–69 | 55.5 | L3–69 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/19 | Oklahoma State vs Tulsa | -10.5L12–19 | 54.5 | L12–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Oklahoma State vs Baylor | +21.0L27–45 | 58.5 | L27–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Oklahoma State at Arizona | +21.5L13–41 | 56.5 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Oklahoma State vs Houston | +14.5L17–39 | 47.5 | L17–39 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati | +23.5L17–49 | 57.5 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Oklahoma State at Texas Tech | +37.5L0–42 | 56.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Oklahoma State at Kansas | +24.5L21–38 | 54.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas State | +19.5L6–14 | 50.5 | L6–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Oklahoma State at UCF | +13.5L14–17 | 47.5 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Oklahoma State vs Iowa State | +13.5L13–20 | 47.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulsa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulsa +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +1.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oklahoma State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tulsa
Tre Lamb #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Ty Darlington
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Gray
Yr 1
#1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
169–88 (66%)
· Yr 21 at school
OC
Doug Meacham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Grantham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓