Oklahoma State at Kansas Week 10 College Football Matchup Oklahoma State at Kansas Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 219 miSame TZ
21 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oklahoma State
18
Kansas
36
P&R Line Kansas -18.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas -24.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Kansas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kansas -24.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Oklahoma State 2nd straight Road Game
Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.0W27–756.5W27–7UN
Sat 9/6Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.5L3–6955.5L3–69ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/19Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.5L12–1954.5L12–19UN
Sat 9/27Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.0L27–4558.5L27–45OY
Sat 10/4Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.5L13–4156.5L13–41UN
Sat 10/11Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.5L17–3947.5L17–39ON
Sat 10/18Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.5L17–4957.5L17–49ON
Sat 10/25Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.5L0–4256.5L0–42UN
Sat 11/1Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5L21–3854.5L21–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.5L6–1450.5L6–14UY
Sat 11/22Oklahoma State at UCF+13.5L14–1747.5L14–17UY
Sat 11/29Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.5L13–2047.5L13–20UY
Kansas 2025 Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas vs Fresno State-14.0W31–751.5W31–7UY
Fri 8/29Kansas vs Wagner-45.5W46–757.5W46–7UN
Sat 9/6Kansas at Missouri+5.5L31–4251.0L31–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Kansas vs West Virginia-12.5W41–1054.5W41–10UY
Sat 9/27Kansas vs Cincinnati-5.5L34–3755.5L34–37ON
Sat 10/4Kansas at UCF-4.0W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/11Kansas at Texas Tech+13.5L17–4258.5L17–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas vs Kansas State-3.5L17–4255.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/1Kansas vs Oklahoma State-24.5W38–2154.5W38–21ON
Sat 11/8Kansas at Arizona+5.5L20–2456.5L20–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Kansas at Iowa State+3.0L14–3855.5L14–38UN
Fri 11/28Kansas vs Utah+10.5L21–3159.5L21–31UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oklahoma State #133
+0.263
Kansas #26
+0.527
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #128
+0.465
Kansas #45
+0.760
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #86
0.149
Kansas #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #125
+7.203
Kansas #47
+7.944
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #129
+0.771
Kansas #13
+0.931
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #132
74.2
Kansas #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oklahoma State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oklahoma State
4.8
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Oklahoma State
19.7
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oklahoma State
14.9
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oklahoma State #136
0.00
Kansas #73
0.71
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #86
1.86
Kansas #45
0.86
Kansas +0.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oklahoma State #1
18.7
Kansas #1
49.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #129
73.0
Kansas #79
38.5
Kansas +30.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kansas
57.2 — 23.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
169–88 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Doug Meacham Yr 1 #1
DC Todd Grantham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
22–28 (44%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC D.K. McDonald Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself