Houston at Oklahoma State Week 7 College Football Matchup Houston at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Houston✈ 453 miSame TZ
Away
39 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Houston
31
Oklahoma State
17
P&R Line Houston -14.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Houston -14.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Houston has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Houston wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Houston wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Houston -14.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Houston · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Houston 2025 Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.5W27–054.5W27–0UY
Sat 9/6Houston at Rice-13.5W35–938.5W35–9OY
Fri 9/12Houston vs Colorado-4.0W36–2045.5W36–20OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/26Houston at Oregon State-11.5W27–2448.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/4Houston vs Texas Tech+13.5L11–3551.5L11–35UN
Sat 10/11Houston at Oklahoma State-14.5W39–1747.5W39–17OY
Sat 10/18Houston vs Arizona+1.5W31–2847.5W31–28OY
Sat 10/25Houston at Arizona State+7.0W24–1646.5W24–16UY
Sat 11/1Houston vs West Virginia-13.5L35–4548.5L35–45ON
Fri 11/7Houston at UCF+1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Houston vs TCU+1.5L14–1755.5L14–17UN
Sat 11/29Houston at Baylor+2.5W31–2457.5W31–24UY
Sat 12/27Houston vs LSU-1.5W38–3543.5W38–35OY
Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.0W27–756.5W27–7UN
Sat 9/6Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.5L3–6955.5L3–69ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/19Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.5L12–1954.5L12–19UN
Sat 9/27Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.0L27–4558.5L27–45OY
Sat 10/4Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.5L13–4156.5L13–41UN
Sat 10/11Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.5L17–3947.5L17–39ON
Sat 10/18Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.5L17–4957.5L17–49ON
Sat 10/25Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.5L0–4256.5L0–42UN
Sat 11/1Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5L21–3854.5L21–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.5L6–1450.5L6–14UY
Sat 11/22Oklahoma State at UCF+13.5L14–1747.5L14–17UY
Sat 11/29Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.5L13–2047.5L13–20UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Houston #102
+0.395
Oklahoma State #133
+0.120
Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Houston #35
+0.794
Oklahoma State #128
+0.288
Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Houston #58
0.162
Oklahoma State #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Houston #83
+7.552
Oklahoma State #125
+6.871
Houston Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Houston #74
+0.867
Oklahoma State #129
+0.769
Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Houston #33
69.4
Oklahoma State #132
74.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Houston Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Houston
8.3
Oklahoma State
4.7
Offense Rating
Houston
19.8
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Houston
11.5
Oklahoma State
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Houston Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Houston #23
1.00
Oklahoma State #136
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Houston #70
1.25
Oklahoma State #86
1.75
Houston +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Houston #1
48.6
Oklahoma State #1
24.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Houston #61
36.9
Oklahoma State #129
68.7
Houston +23.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Houston with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Slade Nagle Yr 1 #1
DC Austin Armstrong Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
169–88 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Doug Meacham Yr 1 #1
DC Todd Grantham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself