Sat, Sep 27 2025
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Lawrence, KS
·
Turf
·
50,071 cap
Cincinnati✈ 575 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Kansas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas -5.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Cincinnati 2025 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Cincinnati vs Nebraska | +6.5L17–20 | 52.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Cincinnati vs Bowling Green | -21.5W34–20 | 46.5 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Cincinnati vs Northwestern State | -48.5W70–0 | 55.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Cincinnati at Kansas | +5.5W37–34 | 55.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Cincinnati vs Iowa State | -1.5W38–30 | 55.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Cincinnati vs UCF | -10.0W20–11 | 55.5 | W20–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Cincinnati at Oklahoma State | -23.5W49–17 | 57.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Cincinnati vs Baylor | -3.5W41–20 | 68.5 | W41–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Cincinnati at Utah | +11.5L14–45 | 57.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Cincinnati vs Arizona | -6.5L24–30 | 56.5 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Cincinnati vs BYU | +2.5L14–26 | 56.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Cincinnati at TCU | +3.0L23–45 | 58.5 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Cincinnati vs Navy | +7.5L13–35 | 57.5 | L13–35 | U | N |
Kansas 2025 Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Kansas vs Fresno State | -14.0W31–7 | 51.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 8/29 | Kansas vs Wagner | -45.5W46–7 | 57.5 | W46–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kansas at Missouri | +5.5L31–42 | 51.0 | L31–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Kansas vs West Virginia | -12.5W41–10 | 54.5 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Kansas vs Cincinnati | -5.5L34–37 | 55.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Kansas at UCF | -4.0W27–20 | 53.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kansas at Texas Tech | +13.5L17–42 | 58.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Kansas vs Kansas State | -3.5L17–42 | 55.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Kansas vs Oklahoma State | -24.5W38–21 | 54.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Kansas at Arizona | +5.5L20–24 | 56.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Kansas at Iowa State | +3.0L14–38 | 55.5 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Kansas vs Utah | +10.5L21–31 | 59.5 | L21–31 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kansas Edge
Kansas +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas Edge
Kansas +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kansas. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tyson Veidt
Yr 1
#1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
22–28 (44%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Matt Lubick
Yr 1
#1
DC
D.K. McDonald
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓