Fresno State at Kansas Week 1 College Football Matchup Fresno State at Kansas Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 23 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
Fresno State✈ 1,340 mi+2 hr TZ
7 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Fresno State
20
Kansas
31
P&R Line Kansas -11
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Kansas -14 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas -14
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2025 Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Fresno State at Kansas+14.0L7–3151.5L7–31UN
Sat 8/30Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.5W42–1454.5W42–14OY
Sat 9/6Fresno State at Oregon State+1.0W36–2745.5W36–27OY
Sat 9/13Fresno State vs Southern-37.5W56–751.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/20Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.5W23–2147.5W23–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Fresno State vs Nevada-12.5W20–1745.5W20–17UN
Fri 10/10Fresno State at Colorado State-5.5L21–4947.5L21–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.0L0–2346.5L0–23UN
Sat 11/1Fresno State at Boise State+17.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.0W24–340.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/22Fresno State vs Utah State-1.5L17–2850.5L17–28UN
Sat 11/29Fresno State at San José State-3.5W41–1446.0W41–14OY
Sat 12/27Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.0W18–341.0W18–3UY
Kansas 2025 Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas vs Fresno State-14.0W31–751.5W31–7UY
Fri 8/29Kansas vs Wagner-45.5W46–757.5W46–7UN
Sat 9/6Kansas at Missouri+5.5L31–4251.0L31–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Kansas vs West Virginia-12.5W41–1054.5W41–10UY
Sat 9/27Kansas vs Cincinnati-5.5L34–3755.5L34–37ON
Sat 10/4Kansas at UCF-4.0W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/11Kansas at Texas Tech+13.5L17–4258.5L17–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas vs Kansas State-3.5L17–4255.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/1Kansas vs Oklahoma State-24.5W38–2154.5W38–21ON
Sat 11/8Kansas at Arizona+5.5L20–2456.5L20–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Kansas at Iowa State+3.0L14–3855.5L14–38UN
Fri 11/28Kansas vs Utah+10.5L21–3159.5L21–31UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Fresno State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Fresno State #106
+0.359
Kansas #26
+0.353
Fresno State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #64
+0.644
Kansas #45
+0.464
Fresno State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Fresno State #30
0.174
Kansas #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #111
+7.535
Kansas #47
+7.205
Fresno State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Fresno State #111
+0.803
Kansas #13
+0.872
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Fresno State #5
66.4
Kansas #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Fresno State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Fresno State
2.4
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Fresno State
15.1
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Fresno State
12.8
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Fresno State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Fresno State #39
0.00
Kansas #73
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #13
0.00
Kansas #45
0.00
Fresno State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Fresno State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Fresno State #1
0.0
Kansas #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #48
0.0
Kansas #79
0.0
Fresno State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Matt Entz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Josh Davis Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
22–28 (44%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC D.K. McDonald Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself