West Virginia at Kansas Week 4 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Kansas Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 20 2025 · Week 4 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
West Virginia✈ 817 mi-1 hr TZ
10 41
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
21
WVU +12.5
Kansas
33
P&R Line Kansas -12
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas -12.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors West Virginia, while Game Control favors Kansas. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Kansas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas -12.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas Coming off BYE
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.0W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6West Virginia at Ohio-3.5L10–1758.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/13West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/20West Virginia at Kansas+12.5L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 9/27West Virginia vs Utah+13.5L14–4846.5L14–48ON
Fri 10/3West Virginia at BYU+19.5L24–3846.5L24–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18West Virginia at UCF+6.5L13–4546.5L13–45ON
Sat 10/25West Virginia vs TCU+16.5L17–2355.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/1West Virginia at Houston+13.5W45–3548.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/8West Virginia vs Colorado-6.5W29–2251.5W29–22UY
Sat 11/15West Virginia at Arizona State+10.0L23–2546.5L23–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.5L0–4953.5L0–49UN
Kansas 2025 Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas vs Fresno State-14.0W31–751.5W31–7UY
Fri 8/29Kansas vs Wagner-45.5W46–757.5W46–7UN
Sat 9/6Kansas at Missouri+5.5L31–4251.0L31–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Kansas vs West Virginia-12.5W41–1054.5W41–10UY
Sat 9/27Kansas vs Cincinnati-5.5L34–3755.5L34–37ON
Sat 10/4Kansas at UCF-4.0W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/11Kansas at Texas Tech+13.5L17–4258.5L17–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas vs Kansas State-3.5L17–4255.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/1Kansas vs Oklahoma State-24.5W38–2154.5W38–21ON
Sat 11/8Kansas at Arizona+5.5L20–2456.5L20–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Kansas at Iowa State+3.0L14–3855.5L14–38UN
Fri 11/28Kansas vs Utah+10.5L21–3159.5L21–31UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #118
+0.322
Kansas #26
+0.402
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #99
+0.586
Kansas #45
+0.646
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #26
0.177
Kansas #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #86
+7.773
Kansas #47
+7.846
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #121
+0.785
Kansas #13
+0.888
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #89
71.7
Kansas #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
West Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.2
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.6
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? West Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #108
0.50
Kansas #73
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #110
2.00
Kansas #45
1.00
West Virginia +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
53.1
Kansas #1
73.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #127
31.1
Kansas #79
14.4
Kansas +19.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas
92.7 — 5.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rich Rodriguez Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
22–28 (44%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC D.K. McDonald Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself