Matchup Prediction
Arkansas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Arkansas wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Arkansas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -23.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arkansas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
UAB 2024 Schedule
UAB's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | UAB vs Alcorn State | -29.5W41–3 | 55.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | UAB at UL Monroe | -10.5L6–32 | 55.5 | L6–32 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | UAB at Arkansas | +23.5L27–37 | 60.5 | L27–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | UAB vs Navy | +4.5L18–41 | 56.5 | L18–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | UAB vs Tulane | +19.5L20–71 | 52.0 | L20–71 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | UAB at Army | +27.0L10–44 | 55.5 | L10–44 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | UAB at South Florida | +14.0L25–35 | 55.5 | L25–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | UAB vs Tulsa | -2.5W59–21 | 57.5 | W59–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | UAB vs UConn | +7.5L23–31 | 54.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | UAB at Memphis | +16.0L18–53 | 62.0 | L18–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | UAB vs Rice | +7.0W40–14 | 52.0 | W40–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | UAB at Charlotte | +1.5L27–29 | 59.5 | L27–29 | U | N |
Arkansas 2024 Schedule
Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -50.5W70–0 | 60.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas at Oklahoma State | +10.5L31–39 | 60.5 | L31–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas vs UAB | -23.5W37–27 | 60.5 | W37–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas at Auburn | +2.5W24–14 | 53.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +6.5L17–21 | 50.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas vs Tennessee | +14.0W19–14 | 57.5 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas vs LSU | +3.0L10–34 | 57.0 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas at Mississippi State | -7.5W58–25 | 55.0 | W58–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Arkansas vs Ole Miss | +8.0L31–63 | 54.0 | L31–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas vs Texas | +13.0L10–20 | 57.5 | L10–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech | -23.5W35–14 | 48.5 | W35–14 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas at Missouri | +3.5L21–28 | 51.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Arkansas vs Texas Tech | +3.5W39–26 | 52.5 | W39–26 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +24.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arkansas
42.5 — 37.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UAB
Trent Dilfer #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Alex Mortensen
Yr 2
#1
DC
Sione Ta'ufo'ou
Yr 2
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
23–25 (48%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓