Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Buffalo wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -3.5
O/U 45.5
ESPN Bet
Lafayette 2024 Schedule
Lafayette's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Lafayette at Buffalo | +3.5L13–30 | 45.5 | L13–30 | U | N |
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5W30–13 | 45.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5L0–38 | 53.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5W34–3 | 45.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0W23–20 | 42.5 | W23–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0L3–47 | 44.5 | L3–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5W30–15 | 44.5 | W30–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0L41–48 | 49.5 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0L16–47 | 46.5 | L16–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0W41–30 | 49.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5W51–48 | 55.5 | W51–48 | O | N |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0W37–20 | 53.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5W43–7 | 50.5 | W43–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5W26–7 | 50.5 | W26–7 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Lafayette Edge
Lafayette +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +18.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓