Buffalo at Eastern Michigan Week 13 College Football Matchup Buffalo at Eastern Michigan Matchup - Week 13
Thu, Nov 21 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Rynearson Stadium Ypsilanti, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Buffalo✈ 252 miSame TZ
Away
37 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Buffalo
30
BUFF +1
Eastern Michigan
25
P&R Line Buffalo -4.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Eastern Michigan -1 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Eastern Michigan, while Game Control favors Buffalo. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Buffalo wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Eastern Michigan -1
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.5W30–1345.5W30–13UY
Sat 9/7Buffalo at Missouri+34.5L0–3853.5L0–38UN
Sat 9/14Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.5W34–345.5W34–3UY
Sat 9/21Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.0W23–2042.5W23–20OY
Sat 9/28Buffalo at UConn+6.0L3–4744.5L3–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Buffalo vs Toledo+10.5W30–1544.5W30–15OY
Sat 10/19Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.0L41–4849.5L41–48ON
Sat 10/26Buffalo at Ohio+4.0L16–4746.5L16–47ON
Sat 11/2Buffalo at Akron+1.0W41–3049.0W41–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/12Buffalo vs Ball State-3.5W51–4855.5W51–48ON
Wed 11/20Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.0W37–2053.5W37–20OY
Tue 11/26Buffalo vs Kent State-23.5W43–750.5W43–7UY
Sat 1/4Buffalo vs Liberty-4.5W26–750.5W26–7UY
Eastern Michigan 2024 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts+2.5W28–1449.0W28–14UY
Sat 9/7Eastern Michigan at Washington+25.0L9–3048.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/14Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State+2.5W37–3453.5W37–34OY
Sat 9/21Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-25.5W36–045.5W36–0UY
Sat 9/28Eastern Michigan at Kent State-14.0W52–3346.0W52–33OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+3.0L14–3845.5L14–38ON
Sat 10/19Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan-3.5W38–3452.5W38–34OY
Sat 10/26Eastern Michigan at Akron-2.5L21–2550.5L21–25UN
Sat 11/2Eastern Michigan vs Toledo+10.0L28–2954.5L28–29OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/13Eastern Michigan at Ohio+10.5L10–3551.5L10–35UN
Wed 11/20Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo-1.0L20–3753.5L20–37ON
Sat 11/30Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan+6.5L18–2656.5L18–26UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Buffalo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Buffalo #77
+0.360
Eastern Michigan #117
+0.260
Buffalo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #47
+0.654
Eastern Michigan #105
+0.437
Buffalo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Buffalo #33
0.183
Eastern Michigan #24
0.187
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Eastern Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo #41
+7.705
Eastern Michigan #105
+7.312
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Buffalo #104
+0.845
Eastern Michigan #74
+0.851
Eastern Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Buffalo #24
68.8
Eastern Michigan #68
70.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Buffalo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Buffalo
-10.8
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
Offense Rating
Buffalo
7.6
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Buffalo
18.3
Eastern Michigan
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Buffalo #119
0.44
Eastern Michigan #67
1.44
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #67
1.22
Eastern Michigan #55
1.00
Eastern Michigan +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Buffalo #1
41.9
Eastern Michigan #1
40.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #56
42.9
Eastern Michigan #92
41.3
Buffalo +1.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
52–68 (43%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 1 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself