Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
·
Turf
·
23,595 cap
Buffalo✈ 514 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Northern Illinois
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Northern Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Northern Illinois wins
Strong
Game Control
67.1%
Northern Illinois wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -13.0
O/U 42.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5W30–13 | 45.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5L0–38 | 53.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5W34–3 | 45.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0W23–20 | 42.5 | W23–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0L3–47 | 44.5 | L3–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5W30–15 | 44.5 | W30–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0L41–48 | 49.5 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0L16–47 | 46.5 | L16–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0W41–30 | 49.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5W51–48 | 55.5 | W51–48 | O | N |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0W37–20 | 53.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5W43–7 | 50.5 | W43–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5W26–7 | 50.5 | W26–7 | U | Y |
Northern Illinois 2024 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois | -36.5W54–15 | 55.5 | W54–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Northern Illinois at Notre Dame | +28.5W16–14 | 46.5 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Northern Illinois vs Buffalo | -13.0L20–23 | 42.5 | L20–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Northern Illinois at NC State | +7.0L17–24 | 46.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts | -14.0W34–20 | 41.0 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Northern Illinois at Bowling Green | +3.0W17–7 | 46.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Northern Illinois vs Toledo | -3.0L6–13 | 42.5 | L6–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Northern Illinois at Ball State | -13.5L23–25 | 47.5 | L23–25 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Northern Illinois at Western Michigan | -2.5W42–28 | 51.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Northern Illinois vs Akron | -14.0W29–16 | 43.5 | W29–16 | O | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) | +1.5L9–20 | 43.0 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan | -16.5W24–16 | 41.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Mon 12/23 | Northern Illinois vs Fresno State | -2.0W28–20 | 41.0 | W28–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +19.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northern Illinois with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Bowen
Yr 1
#1
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
24–33 (42%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Wesley Beschorner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

