Wed, Nov 27 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Kent State✈ 182 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Buffalo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Buffalo wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -23.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Buffalo
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2024 Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kent State at Pittsburgh | +23.5L24–55 | 55.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Kent State vs St. Francis (PA) | -17.5L17–23 | 49.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Kent State at Tennessee | +49.5L0–71 | 61.5 | L0–71 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Kent State at Penn State | +49.0L0–56 | 58.0 | L0–56 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Kent State vs Eastern Michigan | +14.0L33–52 | 46.0 | L33–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Kent State vs Ball State | +3.0L35–37 | 58.0 | L35–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Kent State at Bowling Green | +24.0L6–27 | 54.5 | L6–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +19.0L21–52 | 61.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Kent State vs Ohio | +20.5L0–41 | 53.5 | L0–41 | U | N |
| Wed 11/13 | Kent State at Miami (OH) | +31.0L7–34 | 47.5 | L7–34 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/19 | Kent State vs Akron | +10.5L17–38 | 49.0 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Tue 11/26 | Kent State at Buffalo | +23.5L7–43 | 50.5 | L7–43 | U | N |
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5W30–13 | 45.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5L0–38 | 53.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5W34–3 | 45.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0W23–20 | 42.5 | W23–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0L3–47 | 44.5 | L3–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5W30–15 | 44.5 | W30–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0L41–48 | 49.5 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0L16–47 | 46.5 | L16–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0W41–30 | 49.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5W51–48 | 55.5 | W51–48 | O | N |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0W37–20 | 53.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5W43–7 | 50.5 | W43–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5W26–7 | 50.5 | W26–7 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +39.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Buffalo
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Buffalo
91.3 — 4.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Buffalo won by 36
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Buffalo with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–11 (8%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Duggan
Yr 2
#1
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Bowen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓