Western Michigan at Buffalo Week 8 College Football Matchup Western Michigan at Buffalo Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 UB Stadium Amherst, NY · Turf · 29,013 cap
Western Michigan✈ 350 miSame TZ
48 41
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Michigan
25
Buffalo
29
P&R Line Buffalo -4.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Michigan -1 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Western Michigan, while Game Control favors Buffalo. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -1
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Buffalo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Buffalo 2nd straight Home Game
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Western Michigan at Wisconsin+24.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
Sat 9/7Western Michigan at Ohio State+37.5L0–5654.5L0–56ON
Sat 9/14Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman-33.5W59–3154.5W59–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Western Michigan at Marshall+3.5L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/5Western Michigan at Ball State-10.0W45–4257.5W45–42ON
Sat 10/12Western Michigan vs Akron-9.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 10/19Western Michigan at Buffalo-1.0W48–4149.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/26Western Michigan vs Kent State-19.0W52–2161.0W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+2.5L28–4251.5L28–42ON
Tue 11/12Western Michigan at Bowling Green+9.5L13–3157.5L13–31UN
Tue 11/19Western Michigan at Central Michigan-6.0L14–1656.0L14–16UN
Sat 11/30Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W26–1856.5W26–18UY
Sat 12/14Western Michigan vs South Alabama+6.0L23–3053.5L23–30UN
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.5W30–1345.5W30–13UY
Sat 9/7Buffalo at Missouri+34.5L0–3853.5L0–38UN
Sat 9/14Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.5W34–345.5W34–3UY
Sat 9/21Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.0W23–2042.5W23–20OY
Sat 9/28Buffalo at UConn+6.0L3–4744.5L3–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Buffalo vs Toledo+10.5W30–1544.5W30–15OY
Sat 10/19Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.0L41–4849.5L41–48ON
Sat 10/26Buffalo at Ohio+4.0L16–4746.5L16–47ON
Sat 11/2Buffalo at Akron+1.0W41–3049.0W41–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/12Buffalo vs Ball State-3.5W51–4855.5W51–48ON
Wed 11/20Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.0W37–2053.5W37–20OY
Tue 11/26Buffalo vs Kent State-23.5W43–750.5W43–7UY
Sat 1/4Buffalo vs Liberty-4.5W26–750.5W26–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Buffalo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Michigan #43
+0.409
Buffalo #77
+0.465
Buffalo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #40
+0.599
Buffalo #47
+0.731
Buffalo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #44
0.176
Buffalo #33
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Buffalo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #49
+7.943
Buffalo #41
+8.594
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #33
+0.880
Buffalo #104
+0.887
Buffalo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #22
68.7
Buffalo #24
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Michigan
-5.3
Buffalo
-10.8
Offense Rating
Western Michigan
14.5
Buffalo
7.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Michigan
19.9
Buffalo
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Michigan #116
1.40
Buffalo #119
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #121
1.60
Buffalo #67
1.20
Western Michigan +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Michigan #1
39.4
Buffalo #1
48.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #82
42.8
Buffalo #56
39.7
Buffalo +8.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Michigan
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Western Michigan
18.1 — 64.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Walt Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself